*Market Mantra* <https://www.iforex.in/news>: 08/01/2018 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 10625 (+47)
For the Day: updated: 02:50
*For 08/01/2018: Jan-Fut***
*Key support for NF: 10605/10565-10525/10485*
*Key resistance for NF: 10675/10725-10795/10815*
*Key support for BNF: 25500/25200-25000/24800*
*Key resistance for BNF: 25700/25900-26100/26250*
*Trading Idea (Positional):*
*Technically,*Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10675 area for
further rally towards 10725-10755/10795 & 10815-10860 zone in the short
term (under bullish case scenario).
*On the flip side,*sustaining below 10650 area, NF may fall towards
10605/10565-10525 & 10485-10425 zone in the short term (under bear case
scenario).
*Technically,*Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25900 area for
further rally towards 26100-26250 & 26325-26615 zone in the near term
(under bullish case scenario).
*On the flip side,*sustaining below 25850-25700 area, BNF may fall
towards 25500-25300/25200 & 25000-24800 area in the near term (under
bear case scenario).
*Indian market*(Nifty Fut-Jan/India-50) is now trading around 10620,
surged by almost 0.45% *on positive global cues& Goldilocks euphoria*
<https://www.iforex.in/news/europe-seen-higher-higher-usd-global-goldilocks-euphoria-47577>
coupled with an upbeat GDP forecast by CSO for H2FY18 at 7% despite
overall FY-18 GDP may come lower at 6.5% amid lingering disruption out
of DeMo & GST and certain other structural issues. Overall trading range
is very choppy today after initial gap up opening.
But Indian 10Y bond yield is not so much convinced about overall
economic optimism amid lingering concern for fiscal deficit breach; it’s
now hovering around 7.32% vs 7.29% on Friday after RBI’s green signal
for additional dividend, which may help prune fiscal deficit by around
Rs.0.13 tln.
USDINR-I today fall to multi-months low at 63.38 on higher IN bond
yields & optimism about Indian stock market growth story & huge fund
flows; but it’s now recovered slightly to 63.55 on suspected RBI
intervention.
Market may be also concerned about LTCGT as Govt may be compelled this
time for the sake of muted revenue growth, higher capex to stimulate the
economy and subsequent fiscal math mismatch; Govt may also spent
significantly more on rural capex this time (FY-19 budget), considering
both economical & political compulsion amid rural discontent & state
elections in 8 states in 2018 apart from general election in early 2019.
But Govt may prune down urban/infra capex, such as in Railways and may
also delay payments to states till FY-18 to prevent fiscal slippages;
thus state capex may be also subdued in the coming days.
Lower GDP growth may translate into lower tax receipts; thus Govt may
have also instructed CBDT to slow down processing of tax refunds: “CBDT
Instructed to Hold Back Each Refund Higher than Rs 50000, Expect
Tapering of Refunds to Save Rs 0.30-0.40 tln in FY-18”.
All focus may be on earnings recovery & justification of stretched
valuation as corporate India is entering its Q3FY18 result season.
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZUzpeNHApt0/WlM6GHUMMSI/AAAAAAAAObI/4F-Ru_3b8FwtgcbvV3zInMMQTTSuVMDQACLcBGAs/s1600/SGX-NF-08-01-2018.png>
SGX-NF
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DMOCWmhwXD0/WlM6IjVdbiI/AAAAAAAAObM/l7XEPSNTyGsuZTX6lYiFDxW6qJisax9wwCLcBGAs/s1600/SPX-500-PATTERN-08-01-2018.png>
SPX-500
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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