*Market Wrap* <https://www.iforex.in/news>: 10/01/2018 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Jan):10635 (-12; -0.11%)
(NS: 10632; TTM Q2FY18 EPS: 391 TTM PE: 27.19; Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg FWD
PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)
NSE-BNF (Jan):25625 (-84; -0.33%)
(BNS: 25617; TTM Q2FY18 EPS: 867; TTM PE: 29.55; Near 3-SD of 30; Avg
FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)
*For 11/01/2018: Jan-Fut*
*Key support for NF: 10615/10560-10500/10415*
*Key resistance for NF: 10675/10700-10775/10815*
*Key support for BNF: 25600/25475-25325/25200*
*Key resistance for BNF: 25775/25875-26000/26200*
*Trading Idea (Positional):*
*Technically,*Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10700 area for
further rally towards 10750/10775- 10815/10860 & 10955-11095 zone in the
short term (under bullish case scenario).
*On the flip side,*sustaining below 10675-10655 area, NF may fall
towards 10615/10560-10500/10415 & 10350-10200 zone in the short term
(under bear case scenario).
*Technically,*Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25875 area for
further rally towards 26000/26100-262000/26250 & 26325-26615 zone in the
near term (under bullish case scenario).
*On the flip side,*sustaining below 25825-25775 area, BNF may fall
towards 25600/25475-25325/25200 & 25000-24850 area in the near term
(under bear case scenario).
*Indian market*
<https://www.iforex.in/analysis/nifty-edged-down-concern-higher-oil-fiscal-slippages-psbs-recaps-47735>(Nifty
Fut-Jan/India-50) today (10^th Jan) closed around 10635, inched down by
almost 12 points (-0.11%) *on muted Asian/EU cues*
<https://www.iforex.in/news/europe-may-edge-down-muted-asian-cues-lower-usd-47685>
amid lower USD & *higher global bond yields*
<https://www.iforex.in/news/asia-edged-down-lower-usd-muted-china-ppi-47709>
(US/EU/JP) after BOJ mini tapering & *Chinese warning to slow down or
evenhalt USTSY purchase*
<https://www.iforex.in/news/usdjpy-plunged-further-china-warning-trimhalt-ustsy-buying-47731>
on economic as well as political concern (trade sanctions threat against
China by Trump).
Banks & financials drag on higher Indian bond yields & PSBS recaps
concerns for smaller PSU banks, while techs helped it on TCS & Infy
earnings optimism & IRS contract procure by Infy; surging Brent oil
hovering around $70 may have also dented the confidence of the Indian
market as the country imports almost 80% of its requirement from overseas.
Earlier, Indian 10YGSEC bond yield today soared to AROUND 7.44% at
multi-month high on concern for fiscal slippages, *surging oil*
<https://www.iforex.in/news/crude-oil-surged-despite-mixed-inventory-report-eyeing-65-better-demand-outlook-eia-47719>
& stagflation (lower growth & higher inflation); but it then plunged to
almost 7.22% after confirmed news of FDI reforms (ease) & Nifty-Fut also
rebounds from session low of 10596 after making an opening session high
of 10648.
As FDI reform news was already known to the market, there was no major
reaction; but market may be also in doubt about any takers of Air India
even with 49% FI stake as the national airlines is stuck with around
Rs.0.55 tln of B/S debt; Govt (then UPA) may have taken this step years
ago, when KFA has sought this reform to save itself from an eventual
bankruptcy.
*Market Is Concerned About LTCGT:*
Market is also concerned about Long Term Capital Gain Tax (LTCGT) that
may be introduced in the budget; Govt may apply LTCGT selectively above
Rs.5 lakh long term capital gain @10% so that majority of the small
retail investors (middle class) will be out of its ambit and only around
5000 HNI/institutions may be affected as Govt may want to keep the
voters (middle class) in “good mood” in the election time as they were
already “disturbed” due to DeMo & GST blues.
Alternately, Govt may also change the core definition of the LTCGT
itself from present one year to three years to “encourage” value
investing rather than short term speculation; but most of the retail
investors being “short term” mentally & considering present market
volatility, will end up paying LTCGT at the present rate of STCGT (15%)
and Govt will be also happy considering the present fiscal imbalance and
“too little” contribution of the capital market towards development of
the country.
Govt may also take a number of populist steps like income tax relief/cut
aiming at the middle class ahead of elections and all these concerns are
being reflected by the bond market.
Today Nifty was supported mostly by TCS, Infy, Wipro, HCL Tech, HPCL,
Tech-M, RIL, Adani Ports, Indusind Bank & Bharti Infratel by around 20
points altogether, while it was dragged by Tata Motors, IOC, HDFC,
Eicher Motors, SBI, L&T, VEDL, Bajaj Fin, ITC & Asian Paints by almost
15 points cumulatively.
Overall, today Indian market was helped by techs (earnings optimism),
reality/retailers (FDI optimism), and selected energies (higher oil),
while it was dragged by banks & financials, automakers, selected FMCG,
media, pharma, consumption & infra stocks.
*BTCUSD View*
<https://www.iforex.in/news/bitcoin-slides-buffet-put-comments-ethereum-soared-over-1300-better-tech-optimism-47717>:
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-03G1PuA3BTE/WlbaE7Y6upI/AAAAAAAAOeI/ast70zNDTMcUkGvoUFR_VfzB4hLvO9NEgCLcBGAs/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-10-01-2018.png>
SGX-NF
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Gy7PLDTPJCk/WlbaHTP_UXI/AAAAAAAAOeM/q1zCftVT7awwKbn2sgQDfX_Tg5_3LZ6uQCLcBGAs/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-10-01-2018.png>
BNF
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-thJANwZ1Br8/WlbaKuBieWI/AAAAAAAAOeQ/gWVnu8aYWpc4gripryJLAbv0IiVNQ4WhQCLcBGAs/s1600/USDJPY-PATTERN-10-01-2018.png>
USDJPY
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
--
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