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S T R A T F O R
THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY
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13 September 2001
COMPLIMENTARY INTELLIGENCE REPORT - FULL TEXT
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Global Intelligence Cooperation Comes With Risks
2355 GMT, 010913
Summary
The United States is now building coalition support for its
response to Sept. 11 terror attacks. The chief benefit of
cooperation with the international community will be
intelligence. The ease with which the terrorists struck
demonstrates a gaping hole in U.S. intelligence capabilities that
allies may help to fill. A host of nations have jumped at the
chance to build cooperation with the United States, but such
collaboration comes with a price.
Analysis
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Sept. 13 that the
United States would seek to build a coalition response to terror
attacks in Washington, D.C., and New York City. A host of
countries -- including China, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia and
Saudi Arabia -- have offered to help the United States track down
those responsible.
The offers come when the United States has dire need for
intelligence on the activities, operations, networks and funding
of foreign terrorist organizations based in Africa, the Middle
East and central and southeast Asia. But global counterterrorism
cooperation among a group of nations could be a catch-22 for the
United States. Other nations will seek to shape the United
States' coming war against terrorism to suit their own interests.
For Washington, this presents a strategic dilemma. Cooperation is
necessary and invaluable, but the benefits must be weighed
against the motivations of the many actors involved. This will
hamper counterterrorism efforts. The United States is also
inclined to act unilaterally. Dependence upon foreign sources for
intelligence would make this impossible. But the United States
cannot decline all foreign support. The radical Islamic groups
most likely involved -- although organized into a loose network -
- act in concert. Fighting them will require cooperation.
Washington needs the intelligence capabilities of other nations.
For example, India, Israel and Russia can provide significant
human intelligence sources and foreign language skills. Both are
vital to exposing the terrorist network involved in the recent
attacks. Other nations can also provide intelligence on terrorism
networks within their own countries, as well as the groups'
sources of funding, likely sponsors, and intelligence-gathering
and other capabilities.
Many of these nations have a wealth of information on
counterterrorism methodology and decades of experience fighting
militant groups. These countries and others -- especially
cooperative moderate Arab nations -- can help U.S. intelligence
officials penetrate countries where spying is normally difficult.
>From a logistical and technical perspective, such cooperation
could give Washington a competitive advantage for a war in which
intelligence will be the most valuable weapon.
But accepting such assistance comes with a price. The trap is
simple: By pinpointing groups like Palestinians and Chechens,
nations such as Israel and Russia could seek to manipulate the
U.S. response in order to combat their own enemies.
Israel immediately offered intelligence and military assistance
to the United States following the Sept. 11 attacks. Israel is
eager for the United States to identify a common enemy and to
gain U.S. support in its own problem with Palestinian militants.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, in conversations with U.S. Secretary
of State Colin Powell, compared Palestinian Authority leader
Yasser Arafat to Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden -- the United
States' prime suspect, Israeli radio reported Sept. 13.
Collaborating with Israel could put the United States in a
difficult position. Already, the attacks in the United States
have granted Israel virtual carte blanche in dealing with
suspected Palestinian militants. Sharing intelligence about
insurgent groups in the Middle East with Washington will once
again position Israel as an indispensable U.S. ally, ensuring
continued support in its war against the Palestinians and
possibly future conflicts with Arab neighbors.
Many other nations could benefit in the same way. For example,
India has already offered to help the United States if
investigators link the Sept. 11 attacks to bin Laden and his
operations in Pakistan, the Times of India reported Sept. 13.
India would gladly use U.S. resources to stamp out radical
Islamic groups in Pakistan as these groups are fighting in
Kashmir, territory over which India and Pakistan have fought
three wars.
Similarly, Russia stands to gain from helping America. The
Russian Federal Security Service has already identified the
Pakistan-based radical Islamic group Jaamat e-Islami as the
likely suspect in the suicide hijackings. The group has been tied
to Chechen rebels and a spate of bombings in Russia in 1999,
according to ITAR-TASS. Moscow has its own reasons, however, to
finger a group connected to the Chechens and targeted by India:
By condemning these groups, the United States will be forced to
drop its own criticism of Russia's operations in Chechnya.
Other countries can use a global intelligence coalition to their
own benefit. Even if they are not directly threatened by Islamic
fundamentalist groups, by sharing intelligence and collaborating
with the United States in a global war against terrorism, they
would have a plethora of opportunities to gather intelligence on
potential rivals or stretch their own military reach.
For instance, the head of the Japanese Defense Agency announced
Sept. 11 that Japan would fully support the United States and act
with it to deal with terrorist attacks, The Associated Press
reported. If Japan can frame its military restructuring as an
international counterterrorism effort, that would go a long way
to help Tokyo avoid many problems associated with the legacy of
its World War II militarism and with domestic and foreign
opposition.
European countries will seek to strengthen their own
counterterrorism measures and benefit from American financial
resources. Though Spain, for instance, is not likely to claim
that Basque separatists were involved in the World Trade Center
and Pentagon attacks, cooperation with the United States can
advance Madrid's efforts to end its problem with separatist
rebels.
People the world over see the attack on the United States as a
tragedy. But foreign governments will look to turn it into an
opportunity to solve many of their own national security
problems. The United States will accept help to a limited degree
although ultimately it is more likely to implement policy on a
unilateral basis. But with a united enemy, a disunited coalition
puts the United States at a disadvantage not easily overcome.
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