Hrmph, Jon, you know statistics better than that - don't cripple your own arguments. ANOVA shows no significant difference between the top 10 performances '82 to '07, nor the top 5. If you don't like that, say the distribution may not be normal, a Kolmogrov-Smirnov two-sample test also fails to show a difference. I think Oleg makes a significant contribution - there were some stud American racers then. There still are, just not as many, and there are a lot more North African's racing. Stuff changes - with the amount of travel and intermixing occuring over time, my guess is we'll see the hybrids (ie Amahricans) kicking ass in a hundred years. All we need is a blend of the best genes that produced Coe, Ovett, Viren, Rono, Nyambui, Prefontaine, Deke, Seko, Saladbar, Marsh, Panetta, Zatopek, Walker, Scott, Coghlin, Cram, Gebr, Gooch, Morcelli, Aouita, KK, Benoit-S, Kristiansen, Szabo, Jacobs, Hamilton, Wang, the top ten Japanese women, etc., etc., etc. Heck we'll even throw in a little Master Po for seasoning. Long live the melting pot! Well, OK, maybe that will take a thousand years. Sorry, that's as jingoistic as I get. :-) Cheers, Buck -----Original Message----- From: Jon Entine <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: Oleg Shpyrko <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Track and Field List <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Wednesday, April 25, 2001 11:49 AM Subject: Re: t-and-f: Tom Derderian's comments The results are interesting... 9 athletes broke 32:50 in the '97 race, all from North or East Africa. 5 broke 32:50 in the 82 race, 4 non-Africans. I believe that shows a statistically signficant advantage by East and North Africans. The disparity is probably far more evident in other years, since you picked one year with great running conditions (82). On 4/25/01 8:22 AM, "Oleg Shpyrko" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Some statistics from Falmouth Road Race. > Seems like the times are about the same, all the way from 1st to 10th, > you just have to replace americans from 1970ies/80ies with kenyans and > moroccans in 1990ies and you will have pretty much the same picture. > I am sure Tom can provide similar lists for Boston Marathon. > > What I am interested in, is how come a little "tribe" called "GBTC" could > produce so many top marathoners in the late 70ies, early 80ies? > Something for anthropologists to look into... > > MEN 1997 Falmouth > > 1. Khalid Khannouchi, Morocco 31:58 > 2. Thomas Osano, Kenya 32:07 > 3. Peter Githuka, Kenya 32:22 > 4. Lazarus Nyakeraka, Kenya 32:28 > 5. James Bungei, Kenya 32:31 > 6. Simon Chemoiywo, Kenya 32:36 > 7. Hezron Otwori, Kenya 32:36 > 8. Joseph Kariuki, Kenya 32:39 > 9. Brahim Lahlafi, Morocco 32:40 > 10. John Kariuki, Kenya 33:05 > > MEN 1982 Falmouth > 1. Alberto Salazar Oregon 31:53 CR > 2. Craig Virgin Illinois 32:12 > 3. Rod Dixon New Zealand 32:16 > 4. Mike Musyoki Kenya 32:17 > 5. Marc Curp Missouri 32:46 > 6. Dan Schlesinger No. Carolina 32:53 > 7. Sosthenes Bitok Kenya 33:06 > 8. George Malley Newton, MA 33:10 > 9. Bob Hodge GBTC 33:12 > 10. Gary Fanelli Penn. 33:13 > > MEN Falmouth 1979 > 1. Craig Virgin West Lebanon, IL 32:19 > 2. Herb Lindsay Michigan 32:27 > 3. Bill Rodgers GBTC 32:29 > 4. Jon Sinclair Colorado 32:36 > 5. Frank Shorter Colorado 32:42 > 6. Rick Rojas Colorado 32:44 > 7. John Flora Northeastern TC 32:45 > 8. Mike Roche New Jersey 32:51 > 9. Robbie Perkins unat. 33:03 > 10. Benji Durden Georgia 33:21 > > MEN Falmouth 1980 > 1. Rod Dixon New Zealand 32:20 > 2. Herb Lindsey Boulder, CO 32:32 > 3. Ric Rojas Boulder, CO 32:34 > 4. Bob Hodge GBTC 32:38 > 5. Greg Meyer GBTC 32:49 > 6. Terry Baker Wash. DC 32:58 > 7. Randy Thomas GBTC 33:03 > 8. Kyle Heffner Boulder, CO 33:07 > 9. Benji Durden Georgia 33:09 > 10. Stan Vernon Oklahoma 33:19 > > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of Jon Entine > Sent: Wednesday, April 25, 2001 9:40 AM > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: t-and-f: Tom Derderian's comments > > > Tom: > > I don't have the stats, but I wonder what happens when you slice the data a > little differently. Set the cut off at 2:12 or near there. I would suspect > that you would find that the total number of marathoners who better that > mark has increased slightly and most are from the few regions of the world > with a high altitude ancestry or gene flow with Africa. Considering how few > runners there are in total from these athletic hotspots, it is extraordinary > how they are crowded into the very top finishing places. > > So that would suggest that genes plays a role at the very super elite level. > > My guess would be that the number of sub super-elite marathoners who are not > from those regions and run -- say 2:15-2:25 -- has dropped significantly > for cultural reason: > > They know that their chances of cracking into the super elite is a long > shot. Certainly, there is enough human variation for it to happen and > serendipity, as well as training, plays a huge role (far more than in the > sprints, for instance). > > The chances of an African American making it into the NBA is about 1 in 3500 > or so. The chances of a white is about 1 in 95,000. As one would expect, > very talented whites who might, if life broke their way, make it into the > NBA peel away long before they have a chance to test whether they have the > physical and mental attributes to make it. I would expect that the same > thing is happening in distance running... Some potentially super elite > whites are deciding to say, become a biker, because they look around them > and all the stars are from Kenya, Ethiopia, ettc. > > If people were a little more educated about body type profiles and > physiology, I believe far fewer talented athletes would peel away from > sports or events in which they are emminently suited for. > > In summary, to conclude that difference at the very very top are "cultural" > may not be supported by the weight of the evidence. > > Do you have any figures comparing sub 2:12, or even sub 2:10. Has that > number decreased? > > On 4/24/01 2:47 PM, "t-and-f-digest" > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > >> Tom Derderian wrote: >> Boston 1981, Winning times were similar, But back in 50th place Matsuo >> of >> Japan went 2:18:45. The last sub 2:20 was Gerry Deegan of Ireland in >> 64th. >> The last sub 2:20 this year was Mark Coogan in 19th place. But in 1981 >> I >> considered myself in bad shape and only participated in the race with a >> 2:26:46 in 191st place too far back among Americas to count or even >> score on >> the Greater Boston team. That time in 2001 would have been about what >> Danny >> Reed ran for 35th place overall and 7th American. >> >> Those are the numbers. That difference IS cultural. The interesting >> question is why. > > -- > Jon Entine > RuffRun > 6178 Grey Rock Rd. > Agoura Hills, CA 91301 > (818) 991-9803 [FAX] 991-9804 > http://www.jonentine.com > -- > Jon Entine > RuffRun > 6178 Grey Rock Rd. > Agoura Hills, CA 91301 > (818) 991-9803 [FAX] 991-9804 > http://www.jonentine.com > -- Jon Entine RuffRun 6178 Grey Rock Rd. Agoura Hills, CA 91301 (818) 991-9803 [FAX] 991-9804 http://www.jonentine.com
