Public bug reported:

do-release-upgrade -m desktop fails with the following message:

Could not determine the upgrade

An unresolvable problem occurred while calculating the upgrade.

If none of this applies, then please report this bug using the
command 'ubuntu-bug ubuntu-release-upgrader-core' in a terminal. If
you want to investigate this yourself the log files in
'/var/log/dist-upgrade' will contain details about the upgrade.
Specifically, look at 'main.log' and 'apt.log'.

main.log shows:

"ERROR Dist-upgrade failed: 'E:Error, pkgProblemResolver::Resolve
generated breaks, this may be caused by held packages.'"

sudo apt-mark showhold doesn't show anything held.

I have removed all the 3rd party PPAs and applications, muon and
discover say I have no pending updates, and there are no locked
packages.

I have some searching around and it looks spookily similar to bug
#1875523. Could it be a regression?

ProblemType: Bug
DistroRelease: Ubuntu 18.04
Package: ubuntu-release-upgrader-core 1:18.04.44
ProcVersionSignature: Ubuntu 4.15.0-143.147-generic 4.15.18
Uname: Linux 4.15.0-143-generic x86_64
ApportVersion: 2.20.9-0ubuntu7.23
Architecture: amd64
CrashDB: ubuntu
CurrentDesktop: KDE
Date: Sat May 15 20:22:13 2021
InstallationDate: Installed on 2019-12-21 (511 days ago)
InstallationMedia: Kubuntu 18.04 LTS "Bionic Beaver" - Release amd64 (20180426)
PackageArchitecture: all
SourcePackage: ubuntu-release-upgrader
UpgradeStatus: Upgraded to bionic on 2021-05-15 (0 days ago)
mtime.conffile..etc.update-manager.release-upgrades: 2021-05-15T17:34:29.205732

** Affects: ubuntu-release-upgrader (Ubuntu)
     Importance: Undecided
         Status: New


** Tags: amd64 apport-bug bionic dist-upgrade

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1928555

Title:
  Upgrade from 18.04 LTS fails

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