Hi Rob, We are repeating the same ol' mistakes. It is time to wake up before the 'application development keys' get handed off to someone else (i.e. outsourced entities).
I think Gartner's adoption predictions are usually way off. Check out their 'emerging technology' reports. They revise their predictions each year, hedge their position with 'probabilities and percentages', and predict 3-5 years out, so it's hard to pin them down. For a sanity check on their position, check out these mashup predictions (truth or hype?): In 9 August 2006, "Mashup is rated as moderate on the Hype Cycle (definition: provides incremental improvements to established processes that will result in increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise), but is expected to hit mainstream adoption in less than two years." [1] In 10 October 2007, Garter states "By 2010, Web mashups will be the dominant model (80 percent) for the creation of composite enterprise applications. Mashup technologies will evolve significantly over the next five years, and application leaders must take this evolution into account when evaluating the impact of mashups and in formulating an enterprise mashup strategy." [2] Revisionism at work? I don't see significant traction within Burton Group's Fortune 500 client base as predicted by Gartner in 2006. On another note, 'adoption' does not necessarily equate to success. Don't be a lemming.... [3] Disclosure, I work for competitor of Gartner (i.e. Burton Group) /Chris [1] http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=495475 9 August 2006 [2] http://www.gartner.de/fokus/071042_10.pdf 10 October 2007 [3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lemming --- In [email protected], "Rob Eamon" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > So here is some food for thought. > > I was thinking about the success rate Gartner (or others) have in > predicting adoption/penetration rates for given approaches and > technologies. Since much of what is discussed in SOA has roots in the > EAI/B2B realm, I thought I'd try to see what the predictions were > back in the "heyday" of EAI. > Have we really learned the lessons of the past? Or are we repeating > the same ol' mistakes? > > -Rob >
