On Nov 17, 2012, at 9:48 AM, Randy Bush wrote:

>> if an AS is to run its own SIA (which I believe is envisioned to be
>> far and away be the common case)
> 
> quite the opposite.  the vast majority of ASs will likely use the RIRs'
> or a tier-1's hosted model.  look at the euro region today, a thousand+
> in the ncc repository and three or four playing with up-down.


Hey Randy,

Heh, my crystal ball is clearly neither as big nor as shiny as yours is. ;)  
Kidding, actually, I really don't claim to know this, which is why we modeled 
deployments with 5, 10, 100, 1,000, and 42,000 repos.  As you should be able to 
see from Figure 1 in our tech-note, this results in only about a 10% difference 
in gathering time (significant, but still leaves us in the same ballpark).  Our 
hope with this measurement was to accommodate differences in opinions between 
all of our crystal balls by evaluating the spectrum of possibilities here. :)

Though, as you and others have pointed out, some of our model's numbers might 
need some work.  For example, I think you pointed out that our estimates for 
the number of router certs appears to be an order of magnitude too small.  We 
are currently culling corrections so that we can update the tech-note.

Eric
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