Like macro planning poker. Didn't Google try this at one stage and the 
results were much closer to actuals then a single PM's estimate. 

Liquid Planner is another angle on probabilistic scheduling (though without 
the betting.

Rory

On Thursday, 28 June 2012 09:52:57 UTC+10, Rod Clarke wrote:
>
> OK Call me cynical 
>  
> I am convinced that if you got everyone involved in a project in a room 
> once per week and - gave them ten 1 dollar coins each and asked them to 
> gamble on a set of variables (such as delivery dates, functional / non 
> functional specs,  etc) you would get a much clearer picture of what would 
> be delivered when.
>  
> You would also be in a great position to question deeply and get honest 
> responses to questions what is getting in the way of quicker delivery.
>  
> Even with a small amount of money on the table you get better data, this 
> is analogous to the idea of revealed preference vs stated preference in 
> economics.   
>  
>  
>

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