On 6/21/07, Charles Haynes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
On 6/21/07, Eugen Leitl <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> On Thu, Jun 21, 2007 at 07:19:37AM +0530, Charles Haynes wrote:
>
> > I will bet you up to US$10,000 that the US will not default on any
>
> I will bet you ten trillion chickens that there's a wart on
> your nose.
>
> > significant fraction (>10%) of its public debt within the next 10
> > years.
>
> Yeah, if you can keep adding zeroes and print more notes you're
> not technically defaulting. Even though a piece of bread is
> worth of billions of dollars.
>
> > Talk is cheap.
>
> If you think I care about your opinion, you're mistaken.
It's easy to make dramatic predictions, but most of them are just
throwaways - noise. I believe you are mistaken in your prediction, and
what's more I'm so confident that you are wrong that I'm willing to
bet actual value (I'm happy to bet Rupees if you'd prefer, or ounces
of gold) that you're wrong. In fact I've already bet more than that
that you're wrong, just not with you.
I don't care about your opinion of me, I'm interested in finding out
just how confident you are about your prediction, or if you're just
blowing smoke.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not holding up the American economy as some
sort of paragon, or American government debt as risk free, but I think
your predictions about default are absurd, and I'm wondering if you
really believe what you're saying or if you're just being outrageous.
Oh, and you're on about the wart on my nose. How would you like to settle?
-- Charles
