Acknowledging that most, if not all of your achievements would never have been possible had it not been for generous doses of luck is a lovely practical philosophy and it is not difficult to see how it will result in humbler and more compassionate individuals. However, there is the danger that it could - and I've seen this in several members of my immediate family - lead to a complacent "what will happen will happen" view on life which tends to dissuade anything in the nature of enterprise. So, double-edged, imo, as most practical philosophies tend to be
On 19 April 2016 at 09:41, Charles Haynes <charles.hay...@gmail.com> wrote: > Strongly agree. I'm smart, but my success, such as it is, is more luck than > skill. > > That said - luck favors the prepared, and "the more I practice, the luckier > I get." > > -- Charles > > On Tue, 19 Apr 2016 at 11:18 Udhay Shankar N <ud...@pobox.com> wrote: > > > This strikes a chord. I work with early stage technology entrepreneurs, > and > > have done for over 2 decades (this includes the dot.com boom, a period > > that > > has special relevance to this topic) I have come across several people > who, > > through some confluence of circumstances, have made a lot of money. The > > temptation (including for the people involved) is to imagine this is > > because they were smart. This is almost certainly not true, as can easily > > be demonstrated by the fact that there are always many other people who > are > > demonstrably at least as smart who have not succeeded. > > > > Thoughts? > > > > Udhay > > > > > > > http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/05/why-luck-matters-more-than-you-might-think/476394/ > > > > Why Luck Matters More Than You Might Think > > > > When people see themselves as self-made, they tend to be less generous > and > > public-spirited. > > > > ROBERT H. FRANK MAY 2016 ISSUE BUSINESS > > > > I’m a lucky man. Perhaps the most extreme example of my considerable good > > fortune occurred one chilly Ithaca morning in November 2007, while I was > > playing tennis with my longtime friend and collaborator, the Cornell > > psychologist Tom Gilovich. He later told me that early in the second > set, I > > complained of feeling nauseated. The next thing he knew, I was lying > > motionless on the court. > > > > He yelled for someone to call 911, and then started pounding on my > > chest—something he’d seen many times in movies but had never been trained > > to do. He got a cough out of me, but seconds later I was again motionless > > with no pulse. Very shortly, an ambulance showed up. > > > > Ithaca’s ambulances are dispatched from the other side of town, more than > > five miles away. How did this one arrive so quickly? By happenstance, > just > > before I collapsed, ambulances had been dispatched to two separate auto > > accidents close to the tennis center. Since one of them involved no > serious > > injuries, an ambulance was able to peel off and travel just a few hundred > > yards to me. EMTs put electric paddles on my chest and rushed me to our > > local hospital. There, I was loaded onto a helicopter and flown to a > larger > > hospital in Pennsylvania, where I was placed on ice overnight. > > > > Doctors later told me that I’d suffered an episode of sudden cardiac > > arrest. Almost 90 percent of people who experience such episodes don’t > > survive, and the few who do are typically left with significant > > impairments. And for three days after the event, my family tells me, I > > spoke gibberish. But on day four, I was discharged from the hospital > with a > > clear head. Two weeks later, I was playing tennis with Tom again. > > > > If that ambulance hadn’t happened to have been nearby, I would be dead. > > > > Not all random events lead to favorable outcomes, of course. Mike Edwards > > is no longer alive because chance frowned on him. Edwards, formerly a > > cellist in the British pop band the Electric Light Orchestra, was driving > > on a rural road in England in 2010 when a 1,300-pound bale of hay rolled > > down a steep hillside and landed on his van, crushing him. By all > accounts, > > he was a decent, peaceful man. That a bale of hay snuffed out his life > was > > bad luck, pure and simple. > > > > Most people will concede that I’m fortunate to have survived and that > > Edwards was unfortunate to have perished. But in other arenas, randomness > > can play out in subtler ways, causing us to resist explanations that > > involve luck. In particular, many of us seem uncomfortable with the > > possibility that personal success might depend to any significant extent > on > > chance. As E. B. White once wrote, “Luck is not something you can mention > > in the presence of self-made men.” > > > > Seeing ourselves as self-made leads us to be less generous and > > public-spirited. > > My having cheated death does not make me an authority on luck. But it has > > motivated me to learn much more about the subject than I otherwise would > > have. In the process, I have discovered that chance plays a far larger > role > > in life outcomes than most people realize. And yet, the luckiest among us > > appear especially unlikely to appreciate our good fortune. According to > the > > Pew Research Center, people in higher income brackets are much more > likely > > than those with lower incomes to say that individuals get rich primarily > > because they work hard. Other surveys bear this out: Wealthy people > > overwhelmingly attribute their own success to hard work rather than to > > factors like luck or being in the right place at the right time. > > > > That’s troubling, because a growing body of evidence suggests that seeing > > ourselves as self-made—rather than as talented, hardworking, and > > lucky—leads us to be less generous and public-spirited. It may even make > > the lucky less likely to support the conditions (such as high-quality > > public infrastructure and education) that made their own success > possible. > > > > Happily, though, when people are prompted to reflect on their good > fortune, > > they become much more willing to contribute to the common good. > > > > Psychologists use the term hindsight bias to describe our tendency to > > think, after the fact, that an event was predictable even when it wasn’t. > > This bias operates with particular force for unusually successful > outcomes. > > > > In his commencement address to Princeton University’s 2012 graduating > > class, Michael Lewis described the series of chance events that helped > make > > him—already privileged by virtue of his birth into a well-heeled family > and > > his education at Princeton—a celebrated author: > > > > One night I was invited to a dinner where I sat next to the wife of a big > > shot of a big Wall Street investment bank, Salomon Brothers. She more or > > less forced her husband to give me a job. I knew next to nothing about > > Salomon Brothers. But Salomon Brothers happened to be where Wall Street > was > > being reinvented—into the Wall Street we’ve come to know and love today. > > When I got there I was assigned, almost arbitrarily, to the very best job > > in the place to observe the growing madness: They turned me into the > house > > derivatives expert. > > On the basis of his experiences at Salomon, Lewis wrote his 1989 best > > seller, Liar’s Poker, which described how Wall Street financial > maneuvering > > was transforming the world. > > > > All of a sudden people were telling me I was a born writer. This was > > absurd. Even I could see that there was another, more true narrative, > with > > luck as its theme. What were the odds of being seated at that dinner next > > to that Salomon Brothers lady? Of landing inside the best Wall Street > firm > > to write the story of the age? Of landing in the seat with the best view > of > > the business? … This isn’t just false humility. It’s false humility with > a > > point. My case illustrates how success is always rationalized. People > > really don’t like to hear success explained away as luck—especially > > successful people. As they age, and succeed, people feel their success > was > > somehow inevitable. > > Our understanding of human cognition provides one important clue as to > why > > we may see success as inevitable: the availability heuristic. Using this > > cognitive shortcut, we tend to estimate the likelihood of an event or > > outcome based on how readily we can recall similar instances. Successful > > careers, of course, result from many factors, including hard work, > talent, > > and chance. Some of those factors recur often, making them easy to > recall. > > But others happen sporadically and therefore get short shrift when we > > construct our life stories. > > > > Little wonder that when talented, hardworking people in developed > countries > > strike it rich, they tend to ascribe their success to talent and hard > work > > above all else. Most of them are vividly aware of how hard they’ve worked > > and how talented they are. They’ve been working hard and solving > difficult > > problems every day for many years! In some abstract sense, they probably > do > > know that they might not have performed as well in some other > environment. > > Yet their day-to-day experience provides few reminders of how fortunate > > they were not to have been born in, say, war-torn Zimbabwe. > > > > Our personal narratives are biased in a second way: Events that work to > our > > disadvantage are easier to recall than those that affect us positively. > My > > friend Tom Gilovich invokes a metaphor involving headwinds and tailwinds > to > > describe this asymmetry. > > > > When you’re running or bicycling into the wind, you’re very aware of it. > > You just can’t wait till the course turns around and you’ve got the wind > at > > your back. When that happens, you feel great. But then you forget about > it > > very quickly—you’re just not aware of the wind at your back. And that’s > > just a fundamental feature of how our minds, and how the world, works. > > We’re just going to be more aware of those barriers than of the things > that > > boost us along. > > That we tend to overestimate our own responsibility for our successes is > > not to say that we shouldn’t take pride in them. Pride is a powerful > > motivator; moreover, a tendency to overlook luck’s importance may be > > perversely adaptive, as it encourages us to persevere in the face of > > obstacles. > > > > And yet failing to consider the role of chance has a dark side, too, > making > > fortunate people less likely to pass on their good fortune. > > > > The one dimension of personal luck that transcends all others is to have > > been born in a highly developed country. I often think of Birkhaman Rai, > > the Bhutanese man who was my cook when I was a Peace Corps volunteer in > > Nepal. He was perhaps the most resourceful person I’ve ever met. Though > he > > was never taught to read, he could perform virtually any task in his > > environment to a high standard, from thatching a roof to repairing a > clock > > to driving a tough bargain without alienating people. Even so, the meager > > salary I was able to pay him was almost certainly the high point of his > > life’s earnings trajectory. If he’d grown up in a rich country, he would > > have been far more prosperous, perhaps even spectacularly successful. > > > > Being born in a favorable environment is an enormous stroke of luck. But > > maintaining such an environment requires high levels of public investment > > in everything from infrastructure to education—something Americans have > > lately been unwilling to support. Many factors have contributed to this > > reticence, but one in particular stands out: budget deficits resulting > from > > a long-term decline in the United States’ top marginal tax rate. > > > > A recent study by the political scientists Benjamin Page, Larry Bartels, > > and Jason Seawright found that the top 1 percent of U.S. wealth-holders > are > > “extremely active politically” and are much more likely than the rest of > > the American public to resist taxation, regulation, and government > > spending. Given that the wealthiest Americans believe their prosperity is > > due, above all else, to their own talent and hard work, is this any > wonder? > > Surely it’s a short hop from overlooking luck’s role in success to > feeling > > entitled to keep the lion’s share of your income—and to being reluctant > to > > sustain the public investments that let you succeed in the first place. > > > > And yet this state of affairs does not appear to be inevitable: Recent > > research suggests that being prompted to recognize luck can encourage > > generosity. For example, Yuezhou Huo, a former research assistant of > mine, > > designed an experiment in which she promised subjects a cash prize in > > exchange for completing a survey about a positive thing that had recently > > happened to them. She asked one group of participants to list factors > > beyond their control that contributed to the event, a second group to > list > > personal qualities and actions that contributed to it, and a control > group > > to simply explain why the good thing had happened. After completing the > > survey, subjects were given an opportunity to donate some or all of their > > reward to charity. Those who had been prompted to credit external > > causes—many mentioned luck, as well as factors such as supportive > spouses, > > thoughtful teachers, and financial aid—donated 25 percent more than those > > who’d been asked to credit personal qualities or choices. Donations from > > the control group fell roughly midway between those from the other two > > groups. > > > > Experiments by David DeSteno, a psychologist at Northeastern University, > > offer additional evidence that gratitude might lead to greater > willingness > > to support the common good. In one widely cited study, he and his > > co-authors devised a clever manipulation to make a group of laboratory > > subjects feel grateful, and then gave them an opportunity to take actions > > that would benefit others at their own expense. Subjects in whom > gratitude > > had been stoked were subsequently about 25 percent more generous toward > > strangers than were members of a control group. These findings are > > consistent with those of other academic psychologists. Taken together, > the > > research suggests that when we are reminded of luck’s importance, we are > > much more likely to plow some of our own good fortune back into the > common > > good. > > > > In an unexpected twist, we may even find that recognizing our luck > > increases our good fortune. Social scientists have been studying > gratitude > > intensively for almost two decades, and have found that it produces a > > remarkable array of physical, psychological, and social changes. Robert > > Emmons of the University of California at Davis and Michael McCullough of > > the University of Miami have been among the most prolific contributors to > > this effort. In one of their collaborations, they asked a first group of > > people to keep diaries in which they noted things that had made them feel > > grateful, a second group to note things that had made them feel > irritated, > > and a third group to simply record events. After 10 weeks, the > researchers > > reported dramatic changes in those who had noted their feelings of > > gratitude. The newly grateful had less frequent and less severe aches and > > pains and improved sleep quality. They reported greater happiness and > > alertness. They described themselves as more outgoing and compassionate, > > and less likely to feel lonely and isolated. No similar changes were > > observed in the second or third groups. Other psychologists have > documented > > additional benefits of gratitude, such as reduced anxiety and diminished > > aggressive impulses. > > > > Economists like to talk about scarcity, but its logic doesn’t always hold > > up in the realm of human emotion. Gratitude, in particular, is a currency > > we can spend freely without fear of bankruptcy. Indeed, if you talk with > > others about their experiences with luck, as I have, you may discover > that > > with only a little prompting, even people who have never given much > thought > > to the subject are surprisingly willing to rethink their life stories, > > recalling lucky breaks they’ve enjoyed along the way. And because these > > conversations almost always leave participants feeling happier, it’s not > > hard to imagine them becoming contagious. > > > > Copyright © 2016 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All Rights Reserved. > > > > > > -- > > > > ((Udhay Shankar N)) ((udhay @ pobox.com)) ((www.digeratus.com)) > > > -- Narendra Shenoy http://narendrashenoy.blogspot.com
