Watch Clinton Shut Down Government
09/01/1998
Paul M. Weyrich
Bill Clinton isn't worried, even though he knows that right now most
Americans are all tied up about his lack of contrition and the disaster of a
speech he gave only a few short weeks ago. The president knows that the
Democrats on Capitol Hill have distanced themselves from him, but he doesn't
care. He also knows the public memory is short, and that the elections are
coming up. He is even unfazed that right now conservatives are much more
motivated to vote than liberals. If things continued down this road, he
could really be a lame duck during his last two years in office.
But Clinton has a plan that will re-energize his base. It will take
their minds off of Monica and Ken Starr, no matter what his report to
Congress says. No, it isn't to keep bombing terrorist sites around the
world. That worked temporarily, but it is a ploy that can't be overused.
Instead, his plan is to shut down the government.
One Capitol Hill veteran calls it "the most cynical manipulation I
have ever seen." That same veteran, however, believes Clinton's plan will
work.
"You watch," says this chief of staff for a member of the Senate
leadership, "in the few weeks before the election, the whole country won't
be talking about the special prospector, they will be worrying about whether
or not their mother's Social Security check will arrive on time."
At issue is the budget agreement that has spending caps, which are
now producing a record surplus when Social Security spending is included,
but which are close to producing a surplus even if Social Security is taken
off budget.
Clinton wants the caps broken and wants to greatly increase spending
to pay off his base, while the Republicans, for the most part, think the
spending caps are working and would like to keep them in place. A few key
Republicans are willing to throw Clinton a bone in the form of an extra $10
billion in presidential spending. Some of these leaders think a similar
inducement saved the GOP- controlled House in 1996.
Regardless, Clinton is in no mood to accept any bribes right now. He
needs a genuine crisis to divert America's attention from his problems. A
government shut down will do it. A shutdown affects all parts of the
country, and affects lots of jobs -- not to mention that the media will lap
it up. Republicans, who now feel strangely emboldened by Clinton's troubles,
all of a sudden will be on the defensive again.
Clinton has already signaled what he intends to do. He intends to
veto any bill that will continue government funding at current levels while
Congress and the White House work out their differences on the
appropriations bills.
If Congress gives in to this threat, the spending caps are gone.
Washington would then again be awash in red ink and Clinton could blame the
Republicans for it. If Congress doesn't back down, then Clinton will shut
down the government and blame the Republicans.
It worked before, and if there is one thing that is predictable
about Clinton, it is that if something works for him, he tries it again.
Even Monica knows that.
Last time, thanks to Newt Gingrich's temporary political blindness,
the Republicans didn't see what Clinton was up to. That is why they got so
badly burned in the fall of 1995. This time, they do see this train wreck
coming, but they aren't sure what to do about it.
Let's make a suggestion, and shout the news of this oncoming
shutdown from the rooftops. Say it every time one turns around. Republicans
must frame the issue and seize the moral high ground.
The same advice was given to the Reagan camp in 1980, when they were
told to predict an October Surprise on the part of Jimmy Carter. There was
ample evidence he was going to try to engineer one to put Reagan on the
defensive and win re-election. The Reagan people said it over and over
again. Whatever Carter's plans, they couldn't be carried out. The rest is
history.
In the case of Clinton, he has no choice but to go forward. He has
no other plan that will work. The question is whether the Congress is going
to again operate in Clinton's framework, or if they will force Clinton to
operate in their framework. If they let the country know that this plan is
in the works, and they say it again and again for the next month, by the
time Clinton acts on it -- and act on it he will -- the country will be on
to this blackmail and it won't work.
Republican National Chairman Jim Nicholson has it right. "As if I
had to remind you, Bill Clinton did this to us once before. We can't let him
do it again. This time, if Bill Clinton goes through with his selfish,
reckless scheme to shut down the government, our singular priority ... is to
make sure that the American people know whose fingerprints are really on the
gun -- and they aren't ours."
It is not a moment too soon to begin letting people know what is in
store. It just could be that for once the public will be in a frame of mind
not to believe their president when he looks them in the eye and tells them
that a government shutdown is all the fault of the congressional leadership.
Paul M. Weyrich is president of the Free Congress Founda~ tion.
Readers may write to him at: 717 2nd St. NE, Washington, D.C. 20002.
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