If Turkey Finally Says No: A Hindrance, Aides Say, but There Are
Other Plans
New York Times ^ | 2/19/03 | THOM SHANKER and ERIC
SCHMITT
ASHINGTON, Feb. 19 ? A final refusal by Turkey to allow American forces to use its territory as a launchpad for a northern thrust into Iraq would greatly complicate an already complex war plan, senior Pentagon and military officials said today, but, in the words of one, "would not be a showstopper."
Alternatives to using Turkey under consideration include dropping airborne forces into northern Iraq to secure airfields that could serve as forward bases. Some of these airfields have runways large enough to handle cargo jets ferrying tanks and other armored vehicles ? although hardly in the numbers that could dash overland from Turkey, senior officials said.
Thousands of the Army's light infantry troops could be flown into northern Iraq from bases in the region, or even from the United States, and thousands of marines are aboard ships in waters off Iraq awaiting orders to fly ashore wherever they may be needed.
"Obviously the more assistance one gets, the easier it is," Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said today when asked about the difficulties of invading Iraq without Turkey's aid. "But nonetheless, it's doable, and there are work-arounds"
As negotiations with Turkey over basing and staging continued, Pentagon officials expressed some optimism that a combination of economic incentives, diplomatic pressures and military realities would eventually prod the government in Ankara to accede.
In a sign that the Pentagon still hopes to move more than 15,000 soldiers from the Army's Fourth Infantry Division through Turkey, a military-contracted ship, the Tellus, began unloading port-handling equipment today at an undisclosed Turkish port, military officials said.
From a strictly military perspective, a decision by Turkey to ban American ground operations from its territory could erase Ankara's ability to count on United States forces to help protect its borders in the chaos of regional combat, although some academic political analysts have suggested that Turkey may have designs on territory within Iraq, especially the northern oil fields.
"They could have problems of their own, especially with the Kurds, so Turkish security considerations alone point to the right decision," said a senior Pentagon official.
Pentagon officials said that no official deadline had been set for a Turkish decision, although one senior military officer said that further delays were the same as a prohibition.
"At some point, no decision by Turkey is a `no' decision by Turkey," the officer said.
The missions of several significant military units already are being reviewed, officials said, in particular the Fourth Infantry Division, based at Fort Hood, Tex.
Four ships carrying M1 tanks and other heavy equipment for the Fourth Division are waiting in Turkish waters to take their cargo ashore. At least 30 more ships are expected to arrive soon as about 80 percent of the division's 9,000 vehicles and other equipment has left ports in Texas and Europe, bound for the Mediterranean.
The cargo armada in the eastern Mediterranean is now awaiting a decision to unload in Turkey or sail through the Suez Canal to Kuwait.
Officials said a decision had to be made within the next three days or so in order for the Fourth Division's weapons to be unloaded and readied in time for combat.
"It's close," a senior military official said.
If the Fourth Division ends up in Kuwait, it probably would be ordered to race north in a 500-mile sprint to take up positions in northern Iraq, clearly the long way around to its targets.
The loss of Turkish territory as a staging area also would greatly hinder the ability to resupply American forces with ammunition, food and fuel, which travel with greater efficiency by ground transportation.
Launching a northern offensive from Turkey is important to the overall war plan for several reasons. American troops would play a critical role in securing the northern Iraqi oil fields, an area the size of Rhode Island. The forces would also serve to keep peace between Kurdish factions, and between Kurdish and Turkish troops that are stationed in northern Iraq.
Attacking from the north would also open a second front aimed at dividing Iraq's best trained and equipped forces. Advancing American armored troops would force the two Iraqi Republican Guard divisions in the north to dig in and fight, or retreat south toward Baghdad and make easy targets for allied bombers.
Combined with the main allied ground thrust from Kuwait, the northern offensive would put President Saddam Hussein's forces in a deadly vise, military planners said. Without that pressure from the north, Iraqi forces could focus their ground defenses on the south and west, planners said.
Senior Pentagon officials said today that they had received no indications that Turkey would limit an air campaign from its territory. More than 50 American and British attack planes are now operating out of Incirlik Air Base, patrolling the no-flight zone in northern Iraq.
In a war with Iraq, allied bombers and reconnaissance aircraft would probably operate from several other, smaller bases, including Diyarbakir and Batman. About 500 American military personnel arrived in Turkey on Sunday to carry out renovation work on Turkish air bases for use in a possible war with Iraq.
