A ring of steel around Saddam
Unless Saddam Hussein is overthrown by a coup, U.S.
President George Bush appears determined to launch an unprovoked invasion of
Iraq by early or mid-March in spite of growing opposition at home and a storm of
protests around the world.
ORDER OF BATTLE
The U.S. and
Britain have assembled more than 200,000 men, 120,000 of them ground troops,
over 800 warplanes and a powerful fleet, with four or five strike carriers, in
the Gulf.
U.S. ground forces concentrated in Kuwait include the heavy
3rd Mechanized Infantry Division, an airborne infantry battalion, special
operations units, the famed 101st Air Assault Division, elements of the heavy
1st Armored and 1st Mech Divisions from Europe and two brigades of the 82nd
Airborne Division. In all, five division equivalents. More U.S.-based units are
slated to follow.
At sea, or in Kuwait, is an amphibious landing force
of 55,000 U.S. Marines, Britain's 1st Armoured Division, 4,000 Royal Marines,
Britain's famed SAS commandos plus 1,000 Australians.
Iraq's dilapidated
army has 350,000 men, 1,000 obsolete T-54/55 tanks still serviceable, 100
operational warplanes, a few gunboats and, on paper, 600,000 reservists with
almost no combat capability. War stocks of missiles, munitions and spare parts
are minimal. Morale is poor. Iraq's only combat-capable units are six divisions
of Republican Guards (90,000 men) equipped with semi-modern T-72 tanks,
self-propelled artillery and some mobile air defence systems. Three armoured
Republican Guards divisions, an infantry division, and elite special force units
are deployed in two concentric defence zones around Baghdad to protect the
regime.
THE ATTACK
U.S. forces will begin their invasion
of Iraq with a massive nighttime blitz of 600-800 Tomahawk and other missiles,
precision-guided bombs and special weapons. B-1 and F-117 Stealth bombers will
seek to assassinate President Hussein and decapitate the regime's leadership
using new deep penetrating "bunker-buster" bombs, including the secret Big BLU
30,000-lb. monster.
Iraqi command and control (C3), air defence sites,
power generation and communications will be largely destroyed by missiles,
satellite and laser-guided 2,000 lb. bombs, cyberwarfare computer network
attacks, new high-power microwave weapons (a.k.a. E-bombs or HPM) that melt all
electrical components above or below ground by emitting a violent
electromagnetic pulse and hugely destructive thermobaric fuel-air explosives.
By dawn of D+1, Iraq's air defence system and air force will not exist.
Baghdad will be blacked out and cut off from the rest of the nation. Everything
that runs on electricity will be shut down.
The U.S. Air Force will then
attack Republican Guard units, while avoiding regular army units that will be
needed to help police Iraq after the war. Incessant air strikes will leave the
Iraqi Army blinded, deaf, dumb and unable to move.
The devastating air
campaign will be conducted behind a veil of electronic secrecy. All TV and
radios in Baghdad, including those of foreign media, will be blacked out by HPM
weapons. The world may not see any civilian casualties from the bombing campaign
or any subsequent street fighting.
GROUND OFFENSIVE
U.S.
and British Marines will land on Iraq's Faw Peninsula, join up with the Marine
division in Kuwait, and drive northeast to isolate, then take the port of Basra.
There are three options for the offensive against Baghdad.
First, a daring "coup de main," particularly if Saddam is killed, or
there is a coup or army mutiny. The 82nd and 101st Airborne troops and special
forces will seize an airfield just outside the city, airlift in light armour and
reinforcements, then advance downtown in an effort to locate and kill surviving
government leaders. Soviet Spetsnaz commandos employed this technique in Kabul
in December, 1979.
Meanwhile, fast-moving wheeled armoured units will
drive the 500 km from Kuwait to Baghdad through rough terrain west of the
Euphrates Valley, avoiding Iraqi defences and linking up with Shia rebels in
Najaf and Kerbala before reinforcing the airborne bridgehead in Baghdad.
Option 2: If Washington succeeds in threatening and bribing Turkey into
allowing the waiting U.S. 4th Infantry Division to land from ships and open a
northern front, U.S. mechanized forces, backed by close air support, could
easily advance 100 km south to Mosul and Erbil, seize the region's vital oil
fields, preventing Iraq from blowing them up, storm Kirkuk, then race to
Baghdad.
This operation would prevent Kurdish groups from proclaiming an
independent Kurdistan and force Iraq to split its forces. U.S. airborne units
may be used to seize Mosul and Kirkuk airfields and await ground reinforcements.
Three air bases in the Kurdish region have been prepared by the CIA to receive
U.S. Apache attack helicopters. These units, plus air sorties from Turkey and
40,000 armed Kurdish irregulars will quickly overwhelm weak Iraqi forces in the
north.
Option 3: U.S. armour will drive northwest toward Nasiryah, on
the Euphrates, and northeast toward the river cities of Amara and Kut, where the
Turks defeated the British in 1916.
Backed by heavy bombing, artillery
and round-the-clock close air support, U.S. heavy forces will storm these
bastions and push the last 100 km to Baghdad.
Fighting up river valleys
might prove slow and costly; lengthened U.S. supply lines will become vulnerable
to guerrilla attack.
A combination of these three options will likely be
used, depending on the degree of Iraqi resistance. Combined offensives from
Kuwait and Turkey are the preferred strategy. U.S., British and Israeli special
forces will comb Iraq's western desert for mobile Scud launchers to try to
prevent attacks on Israel. Other special ops units and drone aircraft will
designate key targets and try to assassinate Iraqi leaders.
The final,
decisive battle may be fought house-to-house in and around Baghdad, a sprawling
city of low-rise structures, wide avenues and five million inhabitants. Dug in
Iraqi troops and civilians may put up fierce resistance, though Iraqi tanks and
anti-tank weapons are almost useless beyond point-blank range against heavily
armoured U.S. M1 tanks.
VICIOUS AND BLOODY
Urban warfare
is vicious and bloody. Israeli troops were driven from downtown Suez City in
1973; Russian troops were ambushed and decimated in Grozny by Chechen fighters.
Saddam Hussein has vowed to turn Baghdad into a second battle of Stalingrad,
whose 60th anniversary just passed.
The CIA warns Iraq may use small
stores of mustard and nerve gas, or germs, against U.S. and British forces and
Kuwait, which Saddam has vowed to punish. But these weapons are inefficient and
hard to dispense. They will only delay U.S. attacks while causing unnecessary
military and civilian casualties.
The Iraq war will serve as a test bed
for new U.S. military technologies and tactics, notably night warfare,
electronic combat, three-dimensional operations and unmanned air vehicles. But
when it comes down to street fighting, all will depend on the patriotism of
defending Iraqis and their loyalty to Saddam Hussein. Though a spirited defence
by Iraqis is possible, the U.S. and its allies will inevitably conquer Iraq,
probably within 10-15 days, perhaps less. The rest of the Arab world's regimes
will cower like frightened mice and watch Iraq's final punishment for defying an
imperial power.
For the victorious United States, the real problems will
begin after the war. Some 50,000-100,000 troops will be needed to garrison Iraq,
fight anti-U.S. guerrillas, and combat internal chaos. Millions of Iraqis will
be starving and ill. Iraq will once again be polluted by cancer-causing depleted
uranium debris from U.S. cannon and tank shells. Tens of thousands of American
and British soldiers may end up suffering Gulf war syndrome II.
In
Afghanistan, U.S. forces are now being sucked into a spreading, low-intensity
guerrilla war, an ominous portent for America's coming occupation of "liberated"
Iraq.
Eric can be reached by e-mail at [EMAIL PROTECTED].
Letters to the editor should be sent to [EMAIL PROTECTED] or visit his home page.
