BBC
February 27, 2003
Putin takes anti-war back seat
By Jacky Rowland
BBC correspondent in Moscow
Russia has made a point of letting France and Germany spearhead the
campaign at the United Nations Security Council against the American
push for war on Iraq. Moscow has given its backing to the latest
Franco-German plan to secure Iraqi disarmament by peaceful means through
strengthened weapons inspections.
But President Vladimir Putin has been careful to avoid the kind of
unequivocal positions that the French and German leaders have taken.
Russia will continue to back the anti-war camp for only as long as it
suits Russia's interests.
These interests are different to those of the Germans and French, who
appear to be using the Iraq crisis as a platform for forging a European
policy distinct from Washington's agenda.
'New best friend'
President Putin was quick to offer moral and logistical support to the
United States after the attacks of 11 September 2001.
That strong backing - which included tacit agreement for the US to use
military bases in former Soviet Central Asian republics to launch its
war in Afghanistan - turned Vladimir Putin into President Bush's new
best friend.
The Russian leader has been careful not to waste this hard-earned
goodwill by rushing into any strident, irreversible statements against
war in Iraq.
Mr Putin recognises that confrontation with the US is not in Russia's
best interests.
Its priorities these days are practical rather ideological: it needs to
modernise its economy and society. To do that, it will need foreign
investment, particularly from the US.
It is time for a new special relationship.
With war against Iraq now looking all but inevitable, many in Moscow
realise that the time has come to get off the fence.
Russia cannot expect to be given a role in the Iraq of the future if it
refuses to play a part in removing President Saddam Hussein from power.
Russia has deep-rooted, valuable interests in Iraq.
The government in Baghdad owes Moscow about $8bn in debt, mainly from
weapons sales dating back decades.
Oil fears
At the same time, Russian companies have signed deals to develop Iraq's
oilfields; contracts that are not worth the paper they are printed on as
long as sanctions remain in force against Baghdad.
Russia is one of the biggest exporters of oil in the world, and is now
benefiting from high oil prices.
But it is afraid that prices may plummet once Iraqi oil comes flowing
back onto the world's markets.
Russia needs the situation in Iraq to be resolved if it is to see any
return on its investments.
And it is becoming increasingly likely that any solution will be a
military one.
In this case, it is in Russia's interest to co-operate with the US
rather than hold out against it, and to get Washington to work through
the UN Security Council.
Russia's position as a permanent, veto-holding member of the Security
Council is its main foreign policy tool these days.
So Moscow is anxious to preserve the authority of the UN in deciding
international law.
Serbian News Network - SNN
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http://www.antic.org/
