From what I've seen the Kurzweil approach is among the most effective... if by "Singularity" you mean "smarter than human intelligence making everything fly out the window", only a couple hundred people even understand this, and most of them arrived at it through Staring Into the Singularity.
Hmmm... Your reply is thought-provoking and leads me to distinguish two different observations 1) that smarter than human intelligence, when created, is likely to make everything fly out the window (i.e., a complete revolution in reality, experience, mind, etc.) 2) that the currently observed acceleration in technological development is likely to lead to a host of coordinated advanced technologies coming about in the mid-21'st century, resulting in vastly smarter than human intelligence with powerful control over matter and energy... Observation 1 was obvious to me way before Eliezer was born -- so I bet there are plenty of other old farts out there who grokked this idea deeply well before Eli wrote the essay that you mention.... This idea has been played around with in SF quite a lot. Observation 2, on the other hand, to me was the main new point put forth by Vinge (and promoted by others since, using the "Singularity" meme he started). The likely truth of Observation 2 (exponential acceleration) has become clearer and clearer over the last couple decades.... This is really the novel content of the Singularity idea as such... Kurzweil, on reflection, has done a pretty good job of popularizing Observation 2, but a much less effective job of popularizing Observation 1. This may well be intentional on his part, in that Observation 1 is both more exciting and a lot scarier. On the other hand, it might be possible to take a deeper approach to discussing Observation 1. I note nearly all humans -- deep down -- are very profoundly aware of the painful limitations of human existence. This awareness is the ultimate reason for the success of religions, which offer the promise of a path beyond these painful limitations. Kurzweil talks about going beyond the current state of humanity but mainly in a very pragmatic sort of way -- curing illnesses, beating aging, augmenting cognition, getting rid of the need for work, and so forth. He doesn't talk much about the potential for going beyond the profound limitations implicit in the human way of thinking, feeling, understanding, relating and reflecting. But this is obviously what Observation 1 promises: not just making it so that humans can live longer and not work and have all the cookies they want; but making it so that human awarenesses, if they wish to, can lose the painful and difficult internal restrictions that make human life so psychologically and sociologically difficult in so many ways. Zen teacher Thich Nhat Hanh talked about the mental and emotional "knots" that we all are tied up in, which constitute the essence and the pain of our human psyches. Observation 1 includes the observation that the Singularity may allow us to untie these knots -- which is what the contemplative strains of various religions have long offered but overall done a really poor job of delivering. Of course, Observation 1 also includes the observation that the Singularity may wind up annihilating us all, which is an observation that Kurzweil also prefers to avoid. The raw truth of it is that human existence deeply sucks. It has beautiful and terrible aspects -- the Buddhist teaching that "all existence is suffering" has real truth to it, as does its complement "all existence is joy" -- and the fact that Singularity has the potential to end the suffering at a foundational level (as well as at a more pragmatic and physical level) is very real, and in the Kurzweilian approach winds up being sidestepped along with the profound dangers. Maybe most people are not ready to grok these concepts ... but yet, maybe some people would be **more** open to the Singularity idea if it were presented more in terms of human experience and less in terms of statistical curves and processing power.... It's not that I want to discuss Singularity in terms of religion -- I have no attraction to or affection for superstitious illusions, not at all. I want to discuss Singularity in terms of what it will mean for the experience of a human mind that goes through it, and does NOT wimp out and choose to remain within the constraints of human awareness, but rather avails itself of the opportunity to untie its mental knots and become something truer and better. As a related point, the focus on "more intelligent minds" as a result of the Singularity, which is heard a lot in AI/Singularitarian circles, is somewhat limiting ... it's very important, of course, but just as key as the potential for greater intelligence is the potential for greater mental peace and purity which will come from going beyond the limitations of the evolved human brain architecture. Sorry if this message was too much of a ramble ;-) .. anyway, your reply was thought-provoking, and having just watched Akira Kurosawa's movie Ran for the third time, the mental knots plaging the collective human psyche are vivid in my mind right now ... -- Ben G -- Ben ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/[EMAIL PROTECTED]
