On 10/24/06, Russell Wallace <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
On 10/24/06, Ben Goertzel <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Looking at the political situation in the world today, regarding
> weapons of mass destruction and nuclear proliferation and so forth, I
> don't find this kind of scenario all that farfetched --- if one
> assumes a soft takeoff...
But nothing like your scenario has ever come close to occurring. No First
World nation has ever seriously threatened to attack another over
development of technology. What's happened is that there have been attacks
or threats thereof on Third World nations - not over development of new
technology, of which the sort of country likely to be a target is quite
incapable, but over acquisition of existing technology which is already well
proven and whose existence is not in question; the only controversial issue
is whether some nasty totalitarian regime should be allowed to join the
major powers in possessing it. This can result in violence to be sure, but
it's a completely different thing from the "Cosmists vs Terrans" fantasy.
Just because a scenario has not occurred in the past does not mean it
cannot occur in the future. Has the US ever invaded a country on the
basis that they were developing weapons? Prior to invasion of Iraq,
no. After the invasion, yes. And they didn't even exist! (And maybe
that wasn't the real reason, but see below.)
Countries have always found excuses (whether legit or not) to invade
other countries and apparently they can even get creative about it.
Ben's scenario of countries warring over perceived technology threats
is not impossible at all. And maybe the real reason would be something
else (personal vendetta, we want your oil, etc.), but the populace is
presented with "they will turn us into grey goo with their
out-of-control nanotechnology which they don't even *need* for
Christ's sake--we get along without it just fine".
Btw I'm fairly new to this list and what surprises me so far is the
degree to which people are willing to say what could never happen in
the future. "Hard to predict is the future," said Yoda (or something
like that). Not that I'm basing my beliefs on a sci fi franchise. ;-)
-Chuck
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