Joshua Fox wrote:
Any comments on this: http://news.com.com/2100-11395_3-6160372.html
Google has been mentioned in the context of AGI, simply because they
have money, parallel processing power, excellent people, an
orientation towards technological innovation, and important narrow AI
successes and research goals. Do Page's words mean that Google is
seriously working towards AGI? If so, does anyone know the people
involved? Do they have a chance and do they understand the need for
Friendliness?
This topic has come up intermittently over the last few years...
Google can't be counted out, since they have a lot of $$ and machines
and a lot of smart people.
However, no one has ever pointed out to me a single Google hire with a
demonstrated history of serious thinking about AGI -- as opposed to
statistical language processing, machine learning, etc.
That doesn't mean they couldn't have some smart staff who shifted
research interest to AGI after moving to Google, but it doesn't seem
tremendously likely.
Please remember that the reward structure for technical staff within
Google is as follows: Big bonuses and copious approval go to those who
do cool stuff that actually gets incorporated in Google's customer
offerings.... I don't have the impression they are funding a lot of
blue-sky AGI research outside the scope of text search, ad placement,
and other things related to their biz model.
So, my opinion remains that: Google staff described as working on "AI"
are almost surely working on clever variants of highly scalable
statistical language processing. So, if you believe that this kind of
work is likely to lead to powerful AGI, then yeah, you should attach a
fairly high probability to the outcome that Google will create AGI.
Personally I think it's very unlikely (though not impossible) that AGI
is going to emerge via this route.
Evidence arguing against this opinion is welcomed ;-)
-- Ben G
Also: Vinge's notes on his Long Now Talk, "What If the Singularity
Does NOT Happen" are at
http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/longnow/index.htm
<http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/longnow/index.htm>
I'm delighted to see counter-Singularity analysis from a respected
Singularity thinker. This further reassurance that the the flip-side
is being considered deepens my beliefs in pro-Singularity arguments.
Joshua
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