Samantha:From what you said above $50M will do the entire job. If that is
all
that is standing between us and AGI then surely we can get on with it in
all haste.
Oh for gawdsake, this is such a tedious discussion. I would suggest the
following is a reasonable *framework* for any discussions - although it is
also a framework to end discussions for the moment.
1) Given our general ignorance, everyone is, strictly, entitled to their
opinions about the future of AGI. Ben is entitled to his view that it will
only take $50M or thereabouts.
BUT
2) Not a SINGLE problem of AGI has been solved yet. Not a damn one. Is
anyone arguing different? And until you've solved one, you can hardly make
*reasonable* predictions about how long it will take to solve the rest -
predictions that anyone, including yourself should take seriously-
especially if you've got any sense, any awareness of AI's long, ridiculous
and incorrigible record of crazy predictions here, (and that's by Minsky's &
Simon's as well as lesser lights) - by people also making predictions
without having solved any of AGI's problems. All investors beware. Massive
health & wealth warnings.
MEANWHILE
3)Others - and I'm not the only one here - take a view more like: the human
brain/body is the most awesomely complex machine in the known universe, the
product of billions of years of evolution. To emulate it, or parallel its
powers, is going to take more like many not just trillions but "zillions" of
dollars - many times global output, many, many Microsoft's. Now right now
that's a reasonable POV too.
But until you've solved one, just a measly one of AGI's problems, there's
not a lot of point in further discussion, is there? Nobody's really gaining
from it, are they? It's just masturbation, isn't it?
-------------------------------------------
singularity
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