Crawford: Dean and Hillary Most Likely Nominees
Congressional Quarterly's 2004 campaign correspondent Craig
Crawford is keeping score on the Democratic Party's pack of presidential
hopefuls, and Friday night he delivered his interim assessment.
As the race stands now, either Howard Dean or Hillary Clinton will be the
Democrats' nominee, he claims - whether or not Sen. Clinton decides to throw her
billing records into the ring.
Crawford, who doubles as MSNBC's chief political analyst, told ABC Radio
network's John Batchelor & Paul Alexander that he handicaps the race on the
basis of five factors: money, message, organization, polls and "buzz."
On Sen. Clinton's chances to become her party's standard-bearer, Crawford
said: "I give her 1 to 10 odds if she runs, that's a 90 percent chance for the
nomination. I say it's 3 to 2 odds that she will run, that's a 40 percent
chance.
"And I give her 3 to 1 odds, a 25 percent chance, if she doesn't run - of
winning," he told the ABC radio duo. "That's my brokered convention scenario."
How does Clinton stack up against Dean?
"I've moved him up to 3 to 2, which gives him a 40 percent chance of winning
the nomination," Crawford told the radio duo. "The money primary looks as though
he's going to win."
Nine of the last 10 Democratic nominees had bested their competition in fund
raising, the CQ reporter noted, adding, "It's a better predictor [of who'll get
the nomination] than winning Iowa or New Hampshire."
The future doesn't look nearly as rosy for the other seven contenders.
Sen. Joseph Liberman has experienced "the most dramatic tumble since I
started handicapping in March," said Crawford. "There's no money. He can't run a
national campaign - that's why he pulled out of Iowa." He gives the Connecticut
Democrat a 4 percent chance.
Sen. John Edwards had a disappointing third quarter on fund raising. "But
Hollywood's showing some interest," said Crawford, noting a recent Edwards fund
raiser thrown by actor Dennis Hopper. The North Carolina senator has a 10
percent chance of winning the nomination, he said.
Of Gen. Wesley Clark, Crawford complained, "His performance in the debates
has been consistently weak, especially when he's attacked." Crawford described
Clark's campaign organization as "just a mess" and gives him only a 10 percent
chance.
On Sen. John Kerry, Crawford noted, "For four or five months I had him in the
lead." But he now thinks the trendline for the Massachusetts Democrat's
presidential bid is "down." He has an 11 percent chance.
There's better news for Rep. Dick Gephardt, who, Crawford said, had "seen the
most dramatic rise in my handicapper." The Missourian is now "coming across
well" to crowds and has a 25 percent chance of winning the nomination.
The CQ reporter did not offer assessments for Carol Moseley Braun, Al
Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich.
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