Iran and the U.S.: Earthquake Diplomacy
Summary An earthquake that devastated parts of southeastern Iran could provide a vehicle to improve U.S.-Iranian relations. But U.S. offers of assistance -- if they materialize at all -- will reflect the fact that the recent detente between Tehran and Washington is based on mutual interest, not mutual love. Analysis An earthquake measuring approximately 6.5 on the Richter scale wracked the southeastern Iranian city of Bam in the early morning of Dec. 26. So far, the confirmed death toll stands at 5,000, with authorities projecting a count as high as 10,000. Iran frequently experiences earthquakes -- but this temblor will, to some extent, be a seismograph of the strategic entente that has emerged between the United States and Iran. The United States has not yet made an offer of assistance to Iran, and it possibly won't. However, the earthquake will be a measure of just how far Washington wants to go in publicly demonstrating warming relations, and how far Iran will go in affirming those warming relations. "Warming relations" may well be a misnomer. This is truly an alliance of interest, with no affection attached. Washington wants Iranian help in Iraq; Iran wants to be the dominant power in Iraq. Neither really wishes the other well. It is simply a matter that, at this moment, each country can use the other. The two are working together -- they are not exchanging birthday greetings between leaders. Indeed, for domestic political reasons, neither wants to make too much of the relationship. For Washington, Iran was a charter member of the "axis of evil." Events have forced the United States to rely on Iran, but this is something the administration does not want to have to discuss too publicly. It is President George W. Bush's good fortune that the Democrats have not managed to grasp a foreign policy that is not attached to press conferences. On the Iranian side, the United States is the Great Satan. There are elements within the Iranian leadership -- and not only among the Khamenei faction -- that are extremely uneasy about cooperating with Washington. They understand what is going on and are aware of the potential benefits, but at the same time, they would not be prepared to publicly affirm cooperation. Quite the contrary, they might jump ship if it all became too public. The U.S.-Iranian entente is like the elephant everyone wants to pretend is not there: It is a foundation of both countries' strategies, but each government treats it as if it were invisible on the correct assumption that the major media and political opponents will not notice it if they are not given a guided tour. It should be pointed out that the United States did send $300,000 worth of aid after the last earthquake in Iran, which occurred in July. However, that aid was sent through the United Nations Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF), not directly. At that time, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said that Tehran would accept aid from the United States, noting that "aid is aid ... and foreign aid is natural in that kind of situation." It was a gesture at a time when the two countries were beginning to explore a new relationship; this is almost six months later. This earthquake, therefore, will test just how far the two sides are prepared to go in publicizing the improving relations. For friends -- and even some minor enemies -- the United States routinely issues offers of humanitarian aid, sending emergency supplies via military aircraft. For many countries, acceptance is routine, except for those who either don't need the help or whose pride won't allow them to accept it. Under any circumstances, it is more of a token than a significant alleviation of suffering. If Iran were to accept aid from the United States, it would be acknowledging the need. Now, that will not trouble Iran particularly. Tehran is practical about such matters and has already issued a plea for international assistance that has been answered by many U.S. allies -- including Japan, Turkey, Germany and France. However, the symbolic significance of American military aircraft flying into Iranian airports and offloading supplies would be jarring to a country that expelled the Americans after the Islamic revolution. Delivering supplies to an unrepentant Iran -- even a generation after the hostage crisis was settled by Washington -- also would generate some visceral questions in the United States. For both sides, it would make the elephant that much more visible. Therefore, Washington and Tehran are reviewing the situation carefully. Washington is considering whether it wants to make an offer of aid -- and if the administration decides to do so, it will back-channel the offer to Tehran, getting a private decision first. In other words, the two countries are deciding on whether to use the earthquake as an opportunity to shape the public perception of their relationship. This requires a fundamental decision to be made now: Does either side really want to go beyond the barely acknowledged cooperation that is going on toward a more normal, even friendly, relationship? That would be a huge step, and therefore any U.S. offer of aid would be fraught with consequences. The offer has not been made within the hours after the quake, and with each passing hour the chances that it will be declines. But watching the decision being made is a measure of how far and deep this relationship will go. = _______________________________________________ Sndbox mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://a8.mewebdns-a8.com/mailman/listinfo/sndbox_sandboxmail.net
