[Sndbox] Sabato's Iowa Analysis and 2004 Predictions

[Charles]

Sabato’s Iowa Analysis and 2004 Predictions

The Center for Politics’ Larry Sabato has come out with his instant analysis of the Iowa Caucus, and his Crystal Ball for 2004.

	% of Votes			Delegates
Kerry	38			17
Edwards	32			15
Dean	18			7
Gephardt	11			0
Others	1			0

Turnout total: early estimates near 125,000

So, what does it mean?

KERRY = COMEBACK KID: John Kerry has earned the 2004 title of "The Comeback Kid," and if it continues, he will rival Richard Nixon's resurrection in the 1960s and Bill Clinton's rebirth in 1992.

Of those in the Democratic field, Kerry has always looked most like a president but serendipity played a role here. The public reunion of the Vietnam veteran and the senator who saved his life was completely unplanned but more electrifying than anything that happened in the last week.

EDWARDS = MOVING ON UP: John Edwards has almost as much reason to be pleased. Having finally caught a break with the endorsement of the Des Moines Register - a liberal paper read carefully by Democrats - Edwards became a phenomenon in the last week. Finally, the best campaigner of the post-Clinton Democratic generation has drawn the spotlight.

DEAN = GOODBYE TO FRONT-RUNNER STATUS: The Dean showing is surprisingly bad, worse than even his most pessimistic staff members thought possible. Having been pulverized by a press that didn't much like him and shellacked by a group of Democratic opponents determined to bring him down, Dean has proven the burden of the title of "early front-runner."

His own gaffes were very damaging, but actually less serious than the gaffes committed by Wesley Clark. The difference? Dean had practically been crowned as the nominee after the Gore endorsement, so his gaffes appeared to matter more.

GEPHARDT = FAREWELL TO ARMS: Timing is everything, and Dick Gephardt's timing has consistently been bad. He ran for president in 1988 as too young and inexperienced to win; he assumed the Democratic leadership in the U.S. House at the very moment when the Republicans were taking over control for the first time in 40 years; and he launched his second presidential campaign as a senior Washington politician when Democrats were looking elsewhere.

Where We Go from Here

N.H. = CAUCUS ENVY: Kerry will probably shoot up quickly in the New Hampshire polls. Unless John Edwards decides to make a last-minute stand in New Hampshire, this will be a Kerry-Dean-Clark race in the Granite State.

There will be wild gyrations in the eight days before the New Hampshire primary, so it's worth remembering one thing. Perhaps to preserve their unique status, New Hampshire voters seem to prefer to vote for someone other than the Iowa winner. After all, they aren't there just to ratify a farm state's choice!

S.C. = EDWARDS COUNTRY AT LAST? Edwards will head mainly to South Carolina, and he will at least begin as the favorite. Should he win there, he will be in serious contention to win Virginia and Tennessee on Feb. 10 - though truly, that date is several eternities away now.

DEAN = DISAPPOINTMENT OR DISASTER? Dean is potentially in deep trouble. The promises of "Internet punch" and "youth power" have proven hollow, at least in the first key contest. (Yes, the Internet raised money and generated young volunteers, but what good are money and volunteers if they can't produce votes?)

Dean may find that he is beached by a Kerry tidal wave. Or Clark may hold onto his second-place showing in the polls and become Kerry's main challenger. Or maybe this time Dean can become "The Comeback Kid."

But Dean is cornered, even with all his money and 50-state organization. Dean had better hope it is 1988 all over again, when both third-place Iowa candidates (George Bush and Michael Dukakis) eventually won their party nominations.

Like them, Dean may be able to turn this setback around, either dramatically (as did Bush and Dukakis) or by eking out a convention win, one delegate at a time, state after state, all the way to Boston in July.

GEPHARDT = ENDORSEMENT TO FOLLOW? Gephardt's withdrawal leads to one question: Who will he endorse? Certainly not Dean. It's between Kerry and Edwards and it matters, since Gephardt can probably transfer some union support (if that matters after labor's dismal performance for both Gephardt and Dean in Iowa).

Sabato’s instant Iowa analysis and Crystal Ball for 2004 can be found at www.centerforpolitics.org.

 

Charles Mims

http://www.the-sandbox.org

 

Blind people don't bungee jump. It scares the dog too much.

 

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