January 24, 2004
Exclusive to Zogby-NewsMax Confidential
Massachusetts Senator John Kerry commanding lead over Howard Dean may be increasing.
The latest Zogby New Hampshire tracking poll shows Kerry at 31 % to Dean's 22% -- a 1 point increase in Kerry's lead.
Here are the latest poll results:
Kerry -- 31%
Dean -- 22%
Clark -- 14%
Edwards -- 8%
Lieberman
-- 7%
Kucinich -- 2%
John Zogby's Analysis follows:
1. Kerry's lead is now 9 points over three days; however he led only by 26%-22% over Dean in Friday polling alone, while Edwards and Lieberman each hit 10%.
2. Kerry leads among most sub-groups, including double-digit leads among Independents, the oldest voters, moderates, and married voters.
3. Dean's showing on Friday may suggest that he has bottomed out and may in fact be starting to increase. Kerry's 26-point performance on Friday is factored into two previous nights of double-digit leads. Another day like this and Dean may be in striking distance again.
4. More than three-in-five (62%) of Dean's supporters say their support is 'very strong," as do 60% of Kerry's. There appears to be movement here, as there was in Iowa.
Polling results will be released daily through Tuesday, January 27th, the date of New Hampshire's Democratic primary election. Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of a random sampling of 601 likely primary voters statewide over a rolling three-day period. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Wednesday, January 21 through Friday, January 23. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.
In politics an absurdity is not a handicap. - Napoleon Bonaparte
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