On Fri, 2005-04-01 at 08:34, Daniel Carrera wrote: > Hi guys, > > Thanks to all who responded. I think I understand things better now. > > Now, this bit is interesting: > > > Ric Hayman wrote: > > > I can't remember the intricacies of it all, but one of the other factors > > in the global demand for US$ is that virtually ALL oil is purchased with > > them, so every country which purchases oil (from pretty much any other > > country) has to have a reserve of US$... but certainly if the euro > > became an oil currency, it would considerably weaken the US$ in its > > position as a global reserve currency. > > The article says that there is talk in OPEC about switching to Euros. > Venezuela's president, Hugo Chavez, is certainly very keen on that. He's > rather anti-American. This is significant because Venezuela has > traditionally been the OPEC country that sells most to the US. Since it's > the only major member that is not in the Middle East. > > This would be interesting indeed. > > I'm still thinking about what you guys wrote. Trying to get my head around > it all. I guess my problem is that I'm trying to apply rigurous rules to > concepts that are not rigurous (e.g. "confidence").
You can calculate the confidence in a result, in complex systems with new unstudied variables mixed with many difficult to understand interactions between vairables, assigning mathematical models becomes particularly difficult and uncertainty escalates. Biology is in general more complex than physics. Physics not simplified but applied in very complex living things. So complex not even the biggest computers can model even small parts. The human genome has only just been mapped we are nowhere near mathematically modelling the human brain. Economics is the result of the interactions of these complex biological systems so its not too surprising that no-one really has a full understanding in the scientific sense of how all of it works. Its evolved to its current situation, its there and it goes on much like people really. -- Ian Lynch <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> ZMS Ltd
