http://www.serbianna.com/columns/borojevic/078.shtml
View
Failing Mark: Serbia's 100 days of new government
By Boba Borojevic
November 19, 2008
Trifkovic: "You simply cannot get very far with the powers that want to obtain
further concessions from you by saying that come what may, you will regard them
as your only possible strategic partners. If the Serbs were a little bit
difficult, if the Serbs were creating a little bit more problems to Brusseles
and Washington, they would be respected more and they would obtain better
deals."
"Basically, after and if general Mladic is arrested who knows what other
conditions will be imposed on Serbia by the EU including for instance: the
recognition of Kosovos independence, the reparation to the alleged victims of
Serberenica, or for instance the freezing of Serbias proceedings to obtain
legal judgement at the ICJ."
======
The decisions made in the first 100 days of government in office are seen as
crucial indicators of a country's future course. At the end the hundred days,
by an unwritten rule the opposition can start pointing out to the government
and the public at large any unfulfilled promises.
When reporting to the Parliament beginning of October, PM of Serbia Mirko
Cvetkovic and his cabinet ministers listed as their greatest achievements the
arrest of Radovan Karadi?, improved cooperation with The Hague, UN General
Assembly adoption of Belgrade's International Court of Justice (ICJ) resolution
on the legality of the unilateral declaration of independence by
KosovoMetohija (rebel Albanians), establishing a contract with Fiat car
manufacturer, ratifications of the strategic energy agreement with Russia and
the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU.
Srdja Trifkovic, director of the Center for International Affairs at The
Rockford Institute, believes that there is far less than meets the eye to the
new governments first 100 days.
The fact that the SAA was adopted by Parliament can hardly be called a success
of the government. For as long as they have a majority in Parliament it is only
to be expected. We should add at the same time, that the application of the
agreement was blocked by the Netherlands and Belgium for as long as General
Mladic and suddenly remembered fugitive, Goran Hadzic, remain at large. It is
obvious that it is not in the power of this government to apprehend Mladic and
Hadzic, otherwise they would have done so long time ago. So, the adoption of
the SAA by the Serbian government remains a dead letter and a perfectly
meaningless gesture for as long as the EU itself refuses to countenance the
application of the Agreement, putting it into force pending the arrest of the
remaining two fugitives from the Hagues quasi justice.
The Energy Deal with Russia
As far as the agreement with Russia is concerned, Trifkovic points out to a
problem with constant attempt by some people of the Serbian government,
notably the finance minister Mladjen Dinkic, to renegotiate that deal by
re-evaluating the oil industry of Serbia public company NIS (Naftna Industrija
Srbije). It is tantamount to saying to the purchaser of a car, for instance,
who has already signed the contract and payed the deposit, that you want to
have it reappraised because you believe you didnt make a particularly good
deal. The energy deal with Russia is binding and it is totally irresponsible
for the Serbian government to pretend that it can be retroactively negotiated.
The overall strategic importance of this deal is such that the dispute over the
price seems almost trivial by comparison. It is perfectly clear that if the
Russians decide that the Serbs are reneging on the deal, they can still opt to
go through Romania into Hungary from Bulgaria and Serbia can end up being
completely bypassed.
And then, Mladjen Dinkics favourites, the Hungarian MOL and the Austrians,
will end-up buying the Serbian Oil company ostensively for more money but
ultimately only in order to liquidate it and to ensure that they have
monopolistic position in the South-East-European market, opinionated Trifkovic.
The Fiat Deal
The Fiat-deal is not as bright as it looks. Trifkovic stressed that Serbian
side doesnt have a clear number of vehicles that are projected to be produced
there. It also remains to be seen if this is a simple a route by the Italian
manufacturer to take advantage of the Serbian privileged access to the Russian
market. Lets not forget that even from the Milosevics years there is an
agreement that is still in force that gives Serbia duty-free access to the
Russias markets and whether the investment into new plant and production will
indeed yield the level of rush employment that has been advertised.
Stabilization and Association Agreement Prime Minister Cvetkovic, not only
seems to be playing politics by presenting the record of the government as
brighter than it really is, but also is being disingenuous in a deliberate
manner. According to Trifkovic, PM Cvetkovic knows as well as most other
thinking Serbs that the Agreement with the EU may remain frozen for many years
to come and that even if it is applied then there will be further years of
strenuous negotiations if and when Serbia gets the candidate status.
So, the relationship with the EU is almost demeaning. On the one hand the EU is
not applying any of the agreements that have been heralded as major
breakthroughs and on the other, the Tadic Cvetkovic tandem keeps pretending
that the European path is not only immanent but wide open and has a clear
time-table. Neither of which is the case.
The performance of Tadic-Cvetkovic government in Serbia reflects in some sense
the overall western/ EU countries way of dominance over small countries of
Eastern Europe and the former Soviet block. They show disregard for the
existing positive law of these small sovereign countries and openly demonstrate
that any kind of national politics is not favourable. Trifkovic doesnt believe
that this can be any major obstacle for the Serbian government to work on
strengthening Serbia s economy and image at home and abroad.
When it became clear that in spite of the victory of the socalled pro
European forces at the Serbian general election on 11th of May the application
of the Agreement would have remained frozen they should have not proceeded with
its ratification. If one party to the contract tells you that the contract will
not be regarded as valid then the other party, by proceeding on its path to do
what is necessary to make it active, is put in an inferior position.
The International Court of Justice If the proceeding comes, when it comes and
it may take years, it has an entirely advisory function. It is not binding on
any of the parities and it is not regarded as something that has strength of
verdict in the legal sense. In other words, the countries that have recognized
Kosovo can simply shrug their shoulders and say this is an opinion of the court
not a ruling of the court.
Trifkovic says that in order to obtain the proper ruling, Serbia has to take
to court the countries that have recognized Kosovo. That is what the former
Prime Minister of Serbia Dr. Vojislav Kostunica wanted to do. For reasons that
remain unexplained the Democratic Party which now holds the rains of power and
the Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic have refused to do so.
Meaningless victory Prime Minister Mirko Cvetkovic reiterated that the adoption
of the Resolution seeking and advisory opinion on the legality of the
unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo in the UN General Assembly is
among the biggest diplomatic successes of Serbia s government in the previous
decades.
Trifkovic, however believes that: The so-called victory at the UN General
Assembly is perfectly meaningless. Even if the ICG rules in Serbias favour,
which can happen in two or three years time, by that time the effect of such
ruling will be rendered almost irrelevant. The countries that have recognized
Kosovo by that time will be under no obligation to break relations or to
retroactively derecognize Kosovo. As long as the ICJ gives an opinion rather
than a ruling, the whole exercise is for domestic politics to create the
illusion that the government is doing something useful. Whereas, in fact, it is
very careful not to upset the powers that be in the Western world and to act as
if it is already accepting partition of Kosovo at best or its complete loss at
worst. The current victory at the UN General Assembly is meaningless because in
the long term it is more song and dance for domestic consumption then a truly
weighty and meaningful diplomatic
victory that would enter the calculus of the great powers, concludes
Trifkovic.
________________________________
The abject inferiority of the DS party which is the dominant partner in the
coalition vis-à-vis the western powers are harmful and detrimental to Serbias
national interest. You simply cannot get very far with the powers that want to
obtain further concessions from you by saying that come what may, you will
regard them as your only possible strategic partners. If the Serbs were a
little bit difficult, if the Serbs were creating a little bit more problems to
Brusseles and Washington, they would be respected more and they would obtain
better deals.
________________________________
Basically, after and if general Mladic is arrested who knows what other
conditions will be imposed on Serbia by the EU including for instance: the
recognition of Kosovos independence, the reparation to the alleged victims of
Serberenica, or for instance the freezing of Serbias proceedings to obtain
legal judgement at the ICJ.
__________________________________________________________________
Instant Messaging, free SMS, sharing photos and more... Try the new Yahoo!
Canada Messenger at http://ca.beta.messenger.yahoo.com/
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
------------------------------------
===============
Group Moderator: [Е-ПОШТА
ЗАШТИЋЕНА]
page at http://magazine.sorabia.net
for more informations about current situation in Serbia http://www.sorabia.net
Slusajte GLAS SORABIJE nas talk internet-radio (Serbian Only)
http://radio.sorabia.net
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/sorabia/
<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional
<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/sorabia/join
(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
mailto:[Е-ПОШТА
ЗАШТИЋЕНА]
mailto:[Е-ПОШТА
ЗАШТИЋЕНА]
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[Е-ПОШТА
ЗАШТИЋЕНА]
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
