---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Mon, Nov 26, 2012 at 11:49 AM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Debate rages over Sudan's "coup"... or "charade" To: Group <[email protected]>
1. Debate rages over Sudan's Bashir after "plot" arrests By Ulf Laessing and Khalid Abdelaziz KHARTOUM | Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:26pm EST (Reuters) - Sudan's information minister had one clear message after security agents moved in to arrest their former spy chief - that a plot had been uncovered, the culprits caught and the situation in the country was now "totally stable". Khartoum did appear quiet a day later on Friday - but on the desert city's dusty streets the detention amplified a debate about the future of the country's leader, and posed new questions about who might one day unseat him. President Omar Hassan al-Bashir has kept a near quarter-century hold on this African oil producer, drawing support from its all powerful military, security services and large parts of the devout, overwhelmingly Muslim population. His speeches regularly referred to threats from outside - from the West, from Israel and from the International Criminal Court, which has indicted him over charges of atrocities in Darfur. But the man arrested on Thursday on charges of plotting to "incite chaos" was Salah Gosh, once one of the most powerful figures in Bashir's inner circle, together with several other senior figures from army and security. "He (Bashir) would always be worried ... that the opposition groups would be involved, but now it's coming from inside. There is a categorical difference there," said Magdi El Gizouli, a fellow at the Rift Valley Institute. Gizouli said there were signs of frustration inside the military, where many who had fought Bashir's wars in Darfur and the south were itching for the old guard to move on. "Inside the regime and army are many who want jobs. They are not young anymore. It's not about reforms. It's about power," he added. Public unrest has also been growing over rising prices and growing inflation after South Sudan split away as an independent nation last year, under the terms of a peace deal, taking most of the country's oil reserves with it. Diplomats and analysts in Sudan told Reuters they doubted those tensions had built up into an active military coup attempt. The detentions were rather a warning shot to those inside the army, security and services and ruling party who might even be considering searching for a replacement for Bashir, they added. "This is a power struggle inside the regime. It was a preemptive measure," said Faisal Mohammad Saleh, a prominent journalist. "I don't think the arrested people had planned anything yet. Maybe they made some phone calls or met, but this was a early stage." HEALTH CONCERNS Quieter questions were already circulating about Bashir's future after an official from his ruling National Congress Party said last year, in the wake of "Arab spring" protests, he would not seek re-election in the 2015 presidential election. Speculation mounted after officials were forced to announce Bashir underwent throat surgery in Qatar in August when people in the street started wondering why he had stopped holding his famous public rallies. Officials insist Bashir is healthy after undergoing a second operation in Saudi Arabia. But a reduction in his public appearances has kept people talking. At an Islamist conference last week Sudan invited Muslim leaders from Egypt, Tunisia and further afield, but Bashir's seat was vacant for more than one hour at the opening ceremony. When Bashir finally came, officials interrupted a speech to declare "the president of the republic is here". The startling arrest of Gosh and the other officials, opened up another dimension in the speculation. "You cannot stop the succession debate anymore. It's there and people wonder how fit their president is or whether he wants to run again at the next elections," said a Western diplomat. "(Vice President Ali Osman) Taha has many supporters in the NCP but there are others in the army and NCP with ambitions too." "WHO RUNS THIS COUNTRY?" While details of the plot arrests remain unclear, analysts say the trigger could have been worries that once-loyal Islamists would stage protests after hopes for reforms were dashed at the Khartoum conference last week. In papers circulated in mosques before the meeting, many had demanded to discuss fighting corruption or reforms at the forum of the Islamic Movement, a quasi-official organization meant to guide the NCP. But hopes for changes were dashed when the government managed to push through its candidate, former minister al-Zubeir al-Hassan, as new secretary general. "He is not a historical Islamist leader, he doesn't really have Islamic credentials," said Harry Verhoeven, a long-time Sudan watcher. Thousands of mid-level army officers heeded calls by Muslim leaders to fight southern "infidels" during the country's decades-long civil war with South Sudan. Many of them were furious when the peace deal that Bashir secured to end that conflict opened the door for southerners to secede from Sudan last year. Former "mujahideen" have organized themselves into groups such as the "Saihun", or travelers in Arabic, to vent their anger against the government. "I went fighting as a young man and I feel this government has run the country aground with their corruption. We have ministers who are not competent," said an Islamist, speaking to Reuters before the arrests were announced. After the arrests, Islamists uploaded pictures of one of the army officers detained alongside Gosh - Wad Ibrahim, a civil war hero respectfully called "Emir of the Mujahideen". Shops opened as usual in the morning before Friday prayers. At one mosque visited by Reuters the preacher did not mention the arrests. Many Sudanese, used to political upheavals, wondered what will happen next. "Who is ruling this country," wrote a user on the "Saihun" website on Thursday as rumors were swirling around. "I don't think they tried to stage a military coup," said 55-year-old Ibrahim Idriss, a food merchant in central Khartoum. "I'm not interested in it anyway. I worry more about corruption and officials who steal people's money." (Reporting by Ulf Laessing; Editing by Andrew Heavens) http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/23/us-sudan-turmoil-idUSBRE8AM0NY20121123 END1 2. Sudan: Is Bashir’s Regime Crumbling? By William Lloyd George / KigaliNov. 24, 2012 TIME Shortly after midnight on Thursday a column of tanks drove slowly down one of the main boulevards of Khartoum. Although residents of Sudan‘s capital of Khartoum awoke hours later to what seemed like another normal day, something significant had taken place during the wee hours. Amid a flurry of conflicting reports and wild rumors, information minister Ahmed Belal Osman announced Thursday that 13 suspects — among them senior officials — had been arrested for plotting against the state. “The government has decided to abort this plot just before the zero hour as a preventive measure to avoid entering the country into chaos,” Osman said. The news of a coup attempt would have come as little surprise to countless Sudan watchers, who for months have watched storm clouds gather around the regime of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir. Facing armed resistance from restive ethnic groups in all corners of the country, as well as unrest on city streets from a population resentful of the state’s repressive tendencies, the regime has shown signs of losing it’s grip on power. The regime’s problems are exacerbated by delays in the flow of oil from South Sudan, sinking the Sudanese pound to an all time low. As economic woes deepen, many observers suspect that Bashir, subject of a war-crime indictment at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, will face an internal power struggle that he may not survive. Although discontent has been simmering within the regime for some time, the catalyst for the latest plot appears to have been a disagreement during a conference held last week for the Islamic Movement — an organisation supposedly created to guide the ruling National Congress Party (NCP). Some ministers and religious leaders had hoped to use the conference to push for reforms in the NCP, but were thwarted by Bashir’s allies. Several delegates walked out of the congress even before it ended. “This is a clear sign that something was brewing, says Dr. Alhajj Hamad, a Khartoum based analyst. “These people wanted the congress to reform the government but instead the Islamic Movement ended up being under al-Bashir’s control. Infuriated by the lack reform to come out of the meeting, many believe that the senior political figures and islamists currently in detention were discussing how to change the status quo.” “I don’t think they were anywhere near plotting a coup, one Western diplomat told TIME. “[But]there was definitely an alliance being formed, and this spooked the government.” Salal Gosh, the former intelligence chief, who is currently in detention did not even attend the conference. After Gosh voiced a desire to rule the country, Bashir removed him from his post in April 2011. Since then, rumours have since circulated he planned to do something about it. In a sign that the government may be readying to punish Gosh, his parliamentary impunity was lifted on Friday. Those detained overnight on Thursday were not only obvious foes of Bashir. Senior military official, Mohammed Ibrahim, considered a hero by the Islamist youth for his military operations and leadership against several of the ethnic rebel groups and South Sudan, has also been held. Sources in Khartoum say the state has also arrested over 40 members of the the islamist youth group Al-Sae’hoon which was created earlier this year to push for reforms. Many of it’s members fought under Ibrahim against the south as jihadists and up till recently has voiced undeterred support of the regime. In recent months, though, the group and other Islamists have voiced discontent with Bashir ally Abdelrahim Mohamed Hussein’s tenure as defence minister. They blame him for concessions made to South Sudan, territory lost to rebel groups and airstrike attacks by Israel on weapon storage facilities. Despite initial claims that opposition groups had incited a coup attempt, there is clearly a power struggle underway within the regime. While several of the detainees have already been released, indicating that some were just taken in to aid the investigation, others could be held for a while. Dr. Amgad Fareid Eltayeb argues, though, that most Sudanese are indifferent to the regime’s infighting. “These are all bad guys fighting for power and wealth, Eltayeb, spokesman for opposition group Sudan Change Now (SCN) told TIME. “Not one of them cares about the Sudanese people With the oil agreement seemingly about to break down, tensions mounting on the border over a recent airstrike by Khartoum, and internal power struggles developing, the regime’s ability to survive will be increasingly tested. “The state is crumbing and every regime in its final days shows similar trends,” says Hamad. “It is now merely just the usual process of self destruction.” http://world.time.com/2012/11/24/sudan-is-bashirs-regime-crumbling/ END2 3. SUDAN: NCP insider says coup plot “charade” targeting dissidents November 25, 2012 (KHARTOUM) – A member of Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) has described the authorities’ detention of a group of military and civilian Islamists on accusation of plotting to seize power as “a badly-acted charade” aiming to purge the army and the wider Islamist establishment of certain dissidents. According to Al-Mu’iz Abdallah, a young affiliate of what is known as the current of reformists within the NCP, the so-called subversive attempt in which the authorities implicated a number of Islamist elements from the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS), the army, the paramilitary Popular Defense Forces (PDF), and even within the NCP was nothing but a badly-acted charade. Its aim, claimed the dissident member in an interview with Turkey’s Anadol news agency on Sunday, was to get rid of popular Islamists within the army while also warning disenfranchised civilian Islamists who are flirting with dissent. Sudanese authorities announced on Thursday, 22 November, that 13 individuals including former NISS chief Salah Gosh, Brigadier General Mohamed Ibrahim Abdel-Galil “Wad Ibrahim” from the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and Major General Adil Al-Tayeb from the NISS have been arrested on suspicion of planning a “subversive attempt” that security authorities allegedly foiled earlier on the same day. But multiple sources told Sudan Tribune that many others have been arrested in connection to the putative putsch, mainly from a group of hard-line Islamists widely known as "Al-Sae’ohoon" The group of erstwhile pro-government Mujahdeen who fought in the “holy” war against South Sudan have been vocal recently in their criticism of the NCP leadership, demanding reforms, tougher military stances and a return to the good old days of strict adherence to the Islamic principles that they accuse the NCP of swerving from. To prove his claim that the coup was a false allegation, the young NCP member pointed to the inconsistency in what he described as the fact that Sudan’s President and NCP chairman, Omer Al-Bashir, privately told a member Al-Sae’ohoon in the past that “Wad Ibrahim” previously contributed to thwarting coup attempts by Salah Gosh with whom he is now accused of plotting a coup. Abdallah said that NCP reformists and the “Mujahdeen” are demanding that the reasons that led a group of military Islamists to attempt a seizure of power be taken into consideration if the charge is true. He pointed out that the “Mujahdeen” previously submitted a memo to the government calling for the sacking of defense minister Abdel-Rahim Mohamed Hussein and reforming the military establishment. Another memo released by Al-Sae’ohoon i.e Mujahdeen in response to Thursday’s arrests blasted the defense minister saying he bears responsibility for army failures vis a vis South Sudan, the rebel Sudan People Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N) and the airstrikes carried out by Israel inside the country, including the one that recently targeted a weapons factory in Khartoum. They went on to say that Hussein sent several generals into retirement only because they expressed their views and provided advice. "[Hussein] is stirring up trouble with [former] head of Sudan’s armored corps Brigadier General Sideeg Fadl [who is] security valve of the [1989] revolution [the coup that brought Al-Bashir to power]” The memo stated that Hussein left the detainees with no option but to attempt a coup. Al-Bashir has long resisted calls for sacking his defense minister and personal friend over corruption charges and defeats on the battlefield. Hussein came under fire last April for the ease with which the Sudanese army lost Heglig oilfield to South Sudan. The dissenting NCP member revealed that NISS director-general Mohammed Atta accuses Wad Ibrahim and Lt-Gen Fath Al-Rahman Suliman, the commander-in-chief of the joint border control forces with Chad, of having contacts with foreign and domestic quarters who are hostile to the government, including the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) which is a coalition of armed rebel groups fighting the government in the peripheral regions of South Kordofan, Darfur and Blue Nile. According to Abdallah, who is also a member of the Mujahdeen/Al-Sae’ohoon group, they are currently conducting efforts to secure the release of the detainees and compensate them, adding that many personalities in the NCP’s leadership office “are not happy with what happened to that distinguished elite of officers” Echoing a similar analysis of the alleged coup, the Islamist opposition Popular Congress Party (PCP) of Hassan Al-Turabi has accused the NCP of “concocting” the coup story to settle rivalries between its members and get rid of “pesky” elements. Speaking in a press conference held at the PCP headquarters in Khartoum on Sunday, PCP’s leading member Abdel Razaq said that his party rejects accusation of involvement in the so-called coup attempt, saying that the NCP has grown accustomed to fabricating crises and pinning them on the PCP. Abdel Razaq stressed that the PCP’s goal is to change the regime by peaceful means and away from armed struggle. “We’re even trying to persuade arms-holders to renounce military struggle to topple the regime. Addressing the same event, PCP’s deputy secretary-general in Khartoum State, Al-Nagi Abdella, accused the PCP of concocting the coup attempt to achieve certain results including removal of embarrassment over what he described as the failure of the general conference of the quasi-official Islamic Movement (IM) this month, as well as riddance of “pesky” elements. The NISS at first said that the “subversive attempt” was led by opposition figures but the main opposition coalition National Consensus Forces (NCF), which consists of the PCP and the National Umma Party (NUP) denied the accusation saying that whatever happened on Thursday was an indication of a growing power struggle within the NCP. (ST) http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article44643 END3 4. Khartoum’s foiled attempt, coup d’état or gigantic hoax? By Mahmoud A. Suleiman | MONDAY 26 NOVEMBER 2012 This article comes against the backdrop of the Sudan’s National Intelligence and Security Services’ (NISS) revelation that they have pre-emptively foiled an alleged subversive plot (attempted coup d’état) spearheaded by opposition forces both civilian and military personnel. The National Congress Party (NCP) Information Minister and government spokesperson Ahmed Bilal Osman revealed on Thursday the 22nd November 2012 in Khartoum that there were 13 individuals were arrested in connection with the alleged plot including former Presidential adviser and Director of (NISS) Salah Abdallah Abu Digin (AKA Salah Gosh), Brigadier General Mohamed Ibrahim Abdel-Jalil, better known as ’Wad Ibrahim’, Major General Adel al-Tayeb from the NISS. Political observers say it is a storm in a teacup and news to divert the attention from the problems facing the country under the despotic NCP regime; and it is also to let the dust settle in the aftermath of the so-called Islamic Movement (IM) conference that produced to the surface the differences among the elements of the National Islamic Front (NIF), which have been in hibernation for several years. What is more is that there are Shifting Loyalties within the NCP clique as there are internal disagreements into the direction of the group today. Furthermore, this type of news serves other important purpose which is provision of extra time for the racist Islamism-Arabism regime to remain in power. On the other hand, the news is a sort of informational balloon to test the reaction of the Sudanese public in response (test the pulse of the street) to alarming news of military coup attempt at such a pivotal time. Others say that the whole thing is a giant HOAX! Nevertheless, Sudan is no stranger to military Coup d’états in its history since it won independence in 1956 from the British colonial. That is the main reason that the successive totalitarian regimes that ruled Sudan through military coups tended to accuse opponents as plotting a coup attempt to justify for further suppression and restrictions of public freedoms and declaration of open-ended states of emergency. Today, Omer al-Bashir’s regime is facing many intractable problems. Just to give a few examples: Civil wars being waged in Darfur 10 years on, Nuba Mountains (South Kordofan), Blue Nile region, Eastern Sudan, the outstanding unmet issues of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan, the financial crises, high cost of living, spread of epidemics such as Yellow Fever even inside Khartoum and along with the indictment of elements in the NCP regime including their president Omer Hassan Ahmed al-Bashir by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for the heinous crimes they committed against the Sudanese people in Darfur. And a wrong foreign policy marked by establishment of alliances with rogue regimes which are classified as pariah states by the international community for its link to terrorist organisations. The policies of harbouring terrorists continue. Last and not the least is the NCP regime’s abject failure over the years of its reign to protect the sovereignty of the Sudanese homeland from annexation by foreign countries. The Sudanese territories in Darfur remain open to mercenaries recruited by the NCP regime from the neighbouring countries to occupy while the indigenous owners of the Hawakeer are expelled out to become permanent residents of the humiliating makeshift camps for refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). And the worst is that the civilian populations in the Nuba Mountains in South Kordofan of children, women and elderly were forced to take mountains caves as shelter against aerial bombardment of Omer al-Bashir’s Antonov airships, MiG 29 fighter jets and helicopter bombers. In October 2012, the NCP regime accused Israel of bombing an arms factory in Khartoum, using four aircrafts where strong blasts rocked an Iranian military industrial facility (Yarmouk Arms Factory). Therefore, the NCP regime has to find a person or group to bear the blame to suffer in their place as scapegoat for all the foregoing record of failings. Nevertheless, the group alleged to be behind the Sabotage /Coup attempt shall not be relieved from the heinous crimes they committed in the rights of the Sudanese people in Darfur region, Nuba Mountains, Blue Nile region, Eastern Red Sea Beja people, Nubians in the far Nilotic North, people in Gezira irrigation Agricultural Project between the Blue Nile and White Nile of the central Sudan and Sudanese citizens in general. This authoritarian NCP regime which has been in power for a duration spanning nearly a quarter of a century that unfortunately discounted against development, rule of law, good governance, peace, prosperity, human rights and basic freedoms must be overthrown by all available means in the form of popular peaceful protests, sit-ins and demonstrations armed-protected by the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) forces. Dr. Mahmoud A. Suleiman is the Deputy Chairman of the General Congress for Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). He can be reached at [email protected] http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article44632 END4 5. KHARTOUM POWER STRUGGLES WILL BRING DOWN REGIME Saturday, 24 November 2012 14:11 | Sudan Catholic Radio Network Continuous conflicts among Islamic groups in Khartoum will bring down the ruling regime. Heiban County SPLM-N Deputy Executive Director Walid Ibrahim Karim said the Government in Khartoum is weak due to the internal disputes and the pressure from the international community to meet human rights standards. He added that the National Congress Party faces economic hardships. Mr Ibrahim acknowledged that due to the up and downs in Sudan, the regime will go out, and that the peace will come in. He recommended all the citizens living in the SPLM-N controlled areas to be patient and withstand the aerial attacks and the worsening humanitarian situation. Mr Ibrahim urged civilians not to defect to the Government’s side but to move to Yida refugee camp in South Sudan. http://catholicradionetwork.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8597:khartoum-power-struggles-will-bring-down-regime&catid=2:south-sudan&Itemid=84 END5 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 82 050 1235 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. 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