Actions speak louder than words

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By David L. Phillips and Ahmed Hussain Adam

April 18, 2013 - Sudan’s President Omar Hassan al-Bashir announced the
release of all political prisoners and called for a national dialogue
on reconciliation in a major speech to Sudan’s Parliament on April 1,
2013. His amnesty announcement garnered headlines and international
praise. Does Bashir’s announcement truly represent a more conciliatory
approach, or is it simply a ploy by Bashir to undermine his
opposition? Bashir should be judged by what he does — not what he
says.

Sudanese want to give Bashir the benefit of the doubt. After years of
war and isolation, they are desperate for leadership to resolve
Sudan’s political and economic crisis. So far, Bashir’s performance is
disappointing. His call for a dialogue on national reconciliation
looks like an attempt to divide the opposition using a bogus,
manipulated political process. Rather than genuine reform, Bashir’s
real goals are to legitimize the regime and preserve the status quo.

Here are the facts:

Only eleven political prisoners have been released while hundreds are
languishing in detention across the country. These include 32 female
political prisoners on a hunger strike in El-Obeid, the capital of
North Kordofan State. Detainees are subjected to torture, forced
starvation, and have been unable to communicate with lawyers or their
families.

The National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) are continuing
to crackdown on press freedoms. Just days after Bashir’s announcement,
it arrested and interrogated El Mussallami El-Kabbshi, the Head of Al
Jazeera TV in Khartoum. It also ordered the dismissal of Al-Nour Ahmed
al-Nour, Editor-In-Chief of the Al-Sahafa daily newspaper. Other
journalists are under threat. Their harassment results in
self-censorship.

The Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) dismissed Bashir’s announcement
about the release of political prisoners as tactical and deceptive.
SRF fighters have intensified their operations. Marginalized groups in
Darfur, East Sudan, Blue Nile, Middle and the far North are deeply
skeptical about the regime’s intentions. While Bashir talks about
reconciliation, his military forces are attacking using cluster bombs.

A broad cross-section of civil society leaders have lost confidence in
Bashir and are clamoring for change. Armed and civil opposition
traveled to Kampala on Jan. 5. In a remarkable display of unity, they
established the "New Dawn Charter." The charter articulates an
inclusive governance plan for Sudan after Bashir.

In response, Bashir has called for a constitutional review process.
The opposition rejected his proposal as a false promise. They believe
it is nothing more than a ruse to legitimize his regime in the short
term, and buy time for Bashir to consolidate his authority during the
run-up to general elections in 2015. After a series of rigged
elections, Sudanese do not believe that the next ballot will be free
and fair.

Even core supporters of the regime in the army and paramilitary forces
are growing disillusioned. Some regime loyalists recently attempted to
stage a military coup against Bashir. The government announced the
coup on Nov. 22, arresting the alleged conspirators. Power struggles
and palace intrigue are widespread.

In addition, Bashir and his inner circle are increasingly isolated
from the international community. Bashir’s indictment by the
International Criminal Court (ICC) is viewed by many Sudanese as a
stain on the country’s honor. After being forced to cancel recent
visits to Chad and Kenya, Bashir just visited South Sudan in a
desperate bid to salvage economic ties and restore his image in the
region.

Sudan’s merchant and middle class is hard hit by the economic and
financial crisis, exacerbated by the separation of South Sudan. Absent
oil and energy transport resources, the regime’s coffers are becoming
bare. The business community in Khartoum and other urban areas is
recalculating its interests, and reevaluating its ties to the regime.

Some Sudanese are opting for evolutionary rather than revolutionary
change. A few opposition figures in Khartoum have welcomed Bashir’s
announcement of April 1. Sadiq al-Mahdi, Leader of the Umma Party,
whose current political calculations have tied him to Bashir, has
called for implementation. El Mahdi’s son, General Abdurrahman, is
Bashir’s assistant. They are champions of stability, concerned about
chaos and reprisals when the regime falls.

Sudanese across the political spectrum believe that conditions are
worsening day-by-day. Armed conflict is taking its toll on the
society, resulting in an urgent humanitarian emergency effecting
millions of Sudanese. The country simply cannot wait for elections in
2015 to address its serious problems.

Now is the time for the international community, especially African
leaders, to declare support for Sudan’s opposition. The New Dawn
Charter represents a way forward, enshrining political pluralism,
individual and group rights. It embraces diversity and separates state
and religion. Not only does the Charter provide a framework for
political dialogue engaging Sudanese, it also serves as a road-map for
political dialogue, which can assist democratic transitions across
Africa.

David L. Phillips is Director of the Program on Peace-building and
Rights at Columbia University. Ahmed Hussain Adam is a Visiting
Scholar and Co-Chair of the Two Sudans Forum at the Institute for the
Study of Human Rights (ISHR), Columbia University in the City of New
York.

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