What could convince voters in 2015
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By Zechariah Manyok Biar
June 25, 2013 - As we are approaching the 2015 elections, politicians
are campaigning either openly or secretly. The potential voters are
grouping behind their preferred individuals in what seems to be
undemocratic manner. This has made some people, even in the
international community, worry that elections in South Sudan in 2015
will end up dividing the country and cause chaos that would affect
development.
But it is likely that the experiences after the 2010 elections have
taught some intelligent leaders that rebelling because of losing
elections does not make you get the seat you want. Because of this
experience, the candidates who will lose elections in 2015 might not
rebel against the government like George Athor and David Yau Yau did.
They might work hard to win the next elections like many contestants
in other democracies do.
Yet, the political aspirants who have high chances of winning in 2015
will truly be disappointed if they lost elections even though they
will not rebel. To prevent this disappointment, it is better to know
now what would convince South Sudanese to vote for any political
aspirants in 2015.
In my personal understanding, what would make some aspirants lose
elections in 2015 could be their own mistakes and the mistakes of
their supporters. It is clear now that the top aspirants for president
are relying on strategies that may not help them. If you read
carefully, you will see that South Sudanese are divided into two major
strategic beliefs. Each side is convinced that its strategy will work
for its candidate in 2015.
The first belief is that being a member of the SPLM party will
guarantee you the winning of the upcoming elections. This belief is
based on the past realities. We know during the 2010 elections, for
example, that being the SPLM candidate guaranteed many people their
current political positions regardless of their individual popularity
or lack of. Being an independent candidate in 2010 was equated with
rebellion by people who just came out of war where political
disagreement was often equated with treason.
Still, there were some areas in which this kind of belief never
worked. In those areas, independent candidates beat SPLM candidates.
The voters in those areas understood that political differences with
SPLM party were not equal to treason. This understanding that being
independent is not equal to treason is likely to increase in 2015,
making those who believe in the popularity of the SPLM as their
individual popularity lose positions to either candidates from other
parties or independent candidates.
The reality shows that SPLM is losing its privilege of being a
liberation icon. Citizens are now redefining both party and individual
popularity by connecting it to service delivery. Those who do not
notice this shift in definition might be disappointed in 2015.
The second belief is that tribal affiliation will guarantee somebody
the winning of elections in 2015. Such a belief is not disconnected
from reality. There are some examples were this belief can be
justified. This year’s election in Kenya is one of these examples.
Uhuru Kenyatta was elected president in March, 2013, despite the fact
that the Western World was threatening to cut ties with Kenya if both
Uhuru and William Ruto were elected. The reason behind the threat was
that both men were indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
However, Kenyans did not think like the Western World did. They were
thinking as tribes, not as a nation, when they voted for the indicted
candidates. Now those who threatened to cut ties with Kenya have
accepted the choice of Kenyans even though they still believe that it
was not the best choice. This Kenyans’ belief in tribal affiliation
and not in a candidate as an individual person is true in South Sudan
today.
But, South Sudan could be different from Kenyans because there are
many smaller tribes here that constitute a sizeable number. These
smaller tribes might join hands and vote for their preferred
presidential candidate, either from outside or from within one of the
bigger tribes like the Dinka and the Nuer. This means the population
of one tribe or two tribes will not guarantee its candidate the
winning of the 2015 elections, making the belief on tribal affiliation
for the winning of elections like it happened in Kenya a misplaced
one.
Based on the above reasons, we would argue that convincing people to
vote for a candidate in 2015 will combine one of the above reasons
with some other reasons. Tribal affiliation to major tribes, for
example, is likely to work when a candidate from one of the major
tribe is able to attract voters from the minority tribes. Attracting
voters from the minority tribes, however, will have to go beyond the
arguments we see in most of the comments today.
The comments we see today are limited to either praising or insulting
of one of the two leading candidates for president: President Kiir and
Vice President Riek. The reasons that are given for insults or praises
of each of the above mentioned leaders have become familiar and
serious readers have started to ignore them. Some comments that are
intended to market one of these candidates will soon become damaging
to them rather than promoting them.
The best way of attracting voters from different communities will be
through action, not marketing of a candidate through verbal comments.
Those who love to see their candidates win in 2015 must advice them to
turn their attentions to practical issues that matter to citizens
across ethnic groups in South Sudan. It is when people see how a
particular candidate is going to change their lives for the best that
they will be convinced to vote for him or her. It is not what the
relative to a candidate says about the goodness of such a candidate
(as we often read in most of the comments under articles) that will
convince the voters to vote for him or her.
Zechariah Manyok can be reached at [email protected]
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