Is South Sudan on the right path?
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By Luka Biong Deng
July 6, 2013 - On 9th July, the people of the South will celebrate the
second anniversary of their independence. It is a moment of reflection
of what they have achieved as nation and as citizens who make up this
new nation. In my piece about the first anniversary of the
independence, I stated that given “our rich cultural values and
enormous resources and the inspiring selfless sacrifices of our
martyrs, South Sudan has a character with all the ingredients for
building a bright and prosperous future and one day becomes the most
powerful nation on the continent.”
There is no doubt that the second year of the new nation has been a
difficult year by all standards. It is the year that the South relied
on other revenue sources other than oil revenue for running the
affairs of state. It is even shocking to some international analysts
the level of resilience exhibited by the economy of the South. Some
international experts even refrained from making any forecast for the
economy of the South.
A friend in the leadership of NCP confided to me that they were
shocked by the resilience of the economy of the South because they
expected it to collapse within six months after the closure of oil
production. In fact the South Sudanese pound remains stronger than
Sudanese pound and the inflation in the South is far lower than that
of Sudan. In terms of food security situation, the forecast of the
Famine Early Warning Systems Network suggests improved food security
for year 2012/2013 with a near-average harvest was expected and
improved access to food in most areas of the South.
This high level of resilience of the economy of the South is
attributed to the structure of its economy and the austerity measures
adopted by the government. The rural economy of the South is weakly
integrated with the urban economy that is more prone to external
shocks such as the closure of the oil production. Also the government
has adopted serious austerity measures that helped a lot in mitigating
the consequences of the shutdown of the oil production. Despite the
recent development, Mr Kosti Manibe, the National Minister of Finance,
has performed his duties with distinction amidst austerity measures
and the 2012/2013 budget earned him the nickname “Kosterity” budget. I
would say that he is one of the best ministers of finance we have
since the signing of the CPA in 2005. Kosti is seen by most of the
international community as one of the bright spots of the Government
of South Sudan.
Other positive development is the concerted measures taken by the
Ministry of Petroleum. Being a land locked country with a bad neigbour
such as Bashir’s Sudan, South Sudan needs not only to diversify its
economy but also to diversify the outlets for exporting its oil. The
Ministry of Petroleum has been successful in contracting some foreign
companies to construct refineries. Had it not been the logistical
constraint during the rainy season, the South would have celebrated
the opening of its first refinery in Unity State on the Independence
Day. South Sudan may need to strategically explore this option of
refining locally its crude oil with the aim of meeting regional fuel
needs, particularly Ethiopia, Kenya, Eritrea and even Sudan. Uganda
seems to make strategic choice of refining its oil locally rather than
exporting it as a crude oil.
One the pipeline, the Ministry of Petroleum might have received now
the pipelines feasibility study from the German firm. Although the
content of the study is not yet public, the early indications seem to
suggest that the pipeline to Djibouti through Ethiopia may be more
feasible than that of Lamu in Kenya. The feasibility of Lamu pipeline
will depend on the decision of Uganda to export its crude oil and the
quantities of new oil discoveries in Block 5 in the South and in
Kenya. The real challenge now to the South is to get the funding for
this pipeline so that the work to commence immediately. The Government
of South Sudan may need to explore a possibility of making use of the
SPLA to assist in the construction of this alternative pipeline.
Other positive development during the year is that the South Sudan
Audit Chamber under the leadership of Mr Steven Wondu has been able to
provide a credible audit reports that will provide a sound basis upon
which the South Sudan Anti-Corruption Commission could open specific
cases for further investigation. Also the Ministry of Justice has
started well by opening cases against the companies that were
illegally involved in the sorghum saga. Also some efforts by the
Office of the President to administratively investigate the stolen
money in the office and the USD 8 million contract are quite
encouraging. One would have wished the due process of law could have
been followed in these two cases without prejudging the individuals
involved.
Diplomatically and despite the financial constraints faced by the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the South Sudan was elected as Vice
President of the UN General Assembly. It was also nominated
unanimously and cleared without objection by the region to be elected
as a member of the UN Human Rights Council. The press statement made
by President Salva on the unilateral decision of Bashir not to allow
the oil of the South to be exported through Sudan improved the image
of the South within the international community. In particular his
statement that “While president al-Bashir has declared jihad (holy
war) and is mobilising for war, I maintain my pledge to you and the
world that I will not take the people of South Sudan unnecessarily
back to a state of war” was a huge diplomatic score for the South.
Despite these achievements, the South faces enormous challenges in
positioning itself within the world arena. South Sudan was ranked
number four (4) of the failed states, ranked number 143 in terms of
Global Peace Index out of 162 countries, classified as not free
country in terms of Freedom in the World Index, ranked number 124 out
of 179 countries in terms of Freedom of Press Index, got six (6)
scores in terms of Status of Political Rights compared with the least
free score of seven (7) and got five (5) scores in terms of status of
Civil Liberties compared with the least free score of seven (7).
Although these global indices squarely put South Sudan in the group of
bad countries, it has performed better than other countries that
gained their independence for more than half a century ago such as
Sudan.
As mentioned by Robert Kennedy that “There are those that look at
things the way they are, and ask why? I dream of things that never
were, and ask why not?” In fact we have a chance of not only looking
at the way the South is now but how we would like to see the South. If
we were to dream of the South to be among the best performing
countries in the world, we need visionary, coherent and collective
leadership. The SPLM as a leading political party has to provide this
visionary leadership. Despite its struggle to overcome the “curse” of
liberation, the SPLM must put its house in order by creating
democratic environment within the party.
The basic documents (manifesto, constitution, rules and regulations
and code of conduct) are the democratic pillars upon which the SPLM
can create a democratic atmosphere within which each member can
contest to any position in the party with clear rules of the game. It
seems access to the leadership positions within the SPLM superseded
the institutional and organization arrangements of the party. The
meeting of the SPLM National Liberation Council and the extraordinary
meeting of the Convention need to be convened as urgently as possible
to pass these basic documents after-which the National Convention will
elect the new leadership of the Party.
There is a compelling need for a peaceful and smooth transition in the
leadership of the SPLM. In the history of most liberation movements,
there is no shortcut to access leadership and in most cases the
incumbent leadership tends to continue for a period of time. Cde Salva
Kiir is a consensus leader with whom the unity of the South can be
sustained as he remarkably succeeded in uniting the South during
critical times towards independence, Cde Riek Machar has proven to be
action-oriented leader, accessible and ready to take decisions, Cde
James Wani Igga is the reconciliatory heart of the party and
people-centered leader, Cde Pagan Amum is visionary and represents the
new generation of leadership and Cde Rebecca Nyandeng is the mother of
the nation with potential of providing a last resort platform for
building consensus within the party. The synergy and complementarities
of these leaders can easily provide visionary, coherent and collective
leadership that will put the South on the right path of success.
The author is a senior member of South Sudan’s governing Sudan
People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). He is currently a Fellow at
Harvard Kennedy School and can be reached at [email protected].
This opinion article was previously published The New Nation
newspaper.
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