Second round of South Sudan negotiation underway

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By Steve Paterno

February 15, 2014 - The second round of South Sudan's peace talks in Addis
Ababa is slowly picking pace. The first round of the talks, which dragged
on for almost a month long, concluded with signing of cessation of
hostilities and commitment for the release of political prisoners who are
under government detention for an alleged coup d'état. The aim of these
agreements were to immediately halt senseless killings, create access for
humanitarian assistance, expedite the return of displaced persons, pave way
for permanent political settlement among other significant objectives.
Nonetheless, thus far, the ceasefire is barely holding as both parties in
the conflict are trading accusations of violations. Just like the agreement
to cease fire breaking down, the commitment to release political detainees
equally suffers lack of implementation. Some of the individual prisoners
are released on conditions that they can potentially be tried, while
several others are officially charged with treason, further complicating
their status.

There are surmountable efforts by the mediators to involve other
stakeholders in the negotiations so as to broaden the voices on the table
beyond the armed groups. Filling that role include religious leaders, civil
societies, women groups, youth, Diasporas, the so called political
detainees, and many others.

The political detainees represent the most interesting category among all.
They presented themselves as an independent entity, despite the fact that
rebels claimed them as members and pleaded for their release as a
prerequisite to kick-start negotiation. Also interesting is that the name
the group assigned for themselves, "SPLM Detainees," leaves much more to be
desired.

Anyway, what actually began as power struggle orchestrated by this splinter
group within a political party setting, not only ended up inflaming the
entire nation but brought in fragmentation or rather sections of societies
to demand their space in national negotiations. This for one demonstrates
that the country was sitting on its ills. It actually complicates rather
than eases negotiation process, given sectionalism among the participants
on the table. Such will require these talks to be conducted in layers or in
multi-track negotiations, where some of which must be parallel to one
another.

The government as a legitimate authority of course maintains an upper hand
in the process. To achieve its objectives, the ruling party has already
coerced the formal opposition parties in the country to stand with the
government. The government may also find opportunities to sponsor some
civil societies and other groups who are involved in sideline negotiations
to advocate the government positions. The government has also expanded its
leverage on ground with ongoing military victories against the insurgents.
However, the government seems to be having problems withstanding
international pressure. Such clout will be brought to bear on government in
a case of intransigence.

As for the rebels, they seem to have their work cut out for them. The
biggest blow to the rebels came when the so called political detainees,
whom the rebels have been banking on all along to be their members and
demanded for their release as a pre-condition for negotiation, only to
distance themselves from the rebels when the rebels wanted them the most.
At least, the rebels' expectation was that the colourful composition of
those political detainees would have provided a facelift to the insurgents
which until now remain representative of a single ethnic group.
Unfortunately, the rebels have to fall back to its military strength, which
to their disadvantage is dwindling as they are on retreat. The political
detainees are enjoying the limelight of international community. The fact
that the pressure to release them was mainly coming from foreign powers,
provided them with some leverage they can use to bolster their case.
Nonetheless, in an event the armed groups resorted to settle things by use
of force, and then the political detainees will be rendered useless. As for
the others, which include the majority of South Sudan citizens, it seems,
they will just have to wait for their fates and future of their country to
be decided for them.

*Steve Paterno is the author of The Rev. Fr. Saturnino Lohure, A Romain
Catholic Priest Turned Rebel
<http://www.amazon.com/Rev-Fr-Saturnino-Lohure-Experience/dp/1424194830>.
He can be reached at [email protected] <[email protected]>*

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