---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Mon, Mar 24, 2014 at 9:33 AM Subject: [sudans-john-ashworth] The Conflicts in Unity and Upper Nile To: Group <[email protected]>
Both the following are from the Small Arms Survey, dated 18 March 2014. There are reports that the government has regained control of Malakal since this was written. BEGIN 1. The Conflict in Unity State Since the SPLA regained control of Bentiu, the state capital, on 10 January, government forces have made steady progress against the rebels. While the north and west of Unity saw the most clashes in the first month of South Sudan's conflict, Abiemnom, Rubkona, Guit, and Pariang counties are now firmly under government control, though there is still a rebel presence in Mayom county. In February and March, the conflict in Unity centred on the southern and central counties of Koch, Leer, and Panyijar: areas that--along with Mayendit county--are the main areas of rebel support in the state. Following the SPLA's attack on Leer at the beginning of February, much of the rebel movement fled into the bush. This gave the conflict a new tempo, as detached rebel units intermittently clashed with SPLA forces, but neither side engaged the other in pitched battles. While the SPLA is now in control of much of the state, it remains highly unlikely it will be able to return Unity to pre-conflict level of security without a political solution--the territory in question is simply too large, and the enemy elusive. In the meantime, Unity state is struggling with a humanitarian emergency that the oncoming rainy season threatens to exacerbate. Following the SPLA's successful capture of Bentiu, most of the remaining rebel forces fled south, while pro-government troops looted and burned much of Bentiu and the surrounding area, including almost all of Rubkona market. By 13 January, Joseph Nguen Monytuel, the caretaker governor of Unity state, entered the capital, with his ministers. Over the next two months, civilians returned to Bentiu. By 4 February, the UN reported that over half of the people seeking shelter at the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) compound had returned to the town, and by 10 March, the Bentiu market had re-opened. Despite this improvement in life, the situation remains tenuous: by 14 March, more than 6,000 people were again seeking shelter at UNMISS, in anticipation of future clashes, and the number was rising. The rebel's loss of Bentiu engendered a loss of confidence among members of the SPLA's 4th division who had defected to James Koang Chuol's rebellion. The number of troops that deserted and returned to the SPLA is contested. Mabek Lang, the deputy caretaker governor, claimed that 250 soldiers returned to Bentiu at the end of January, while Colonel John Malok, a state security advisor, put the number at 700 on 27 January. These desertions have not been confirmed. Following the capture of Bentiu, the SPLA forces followed the retreating rebels. The next two months would see fighting focused on Koch, Leer, and Panyijar counties, as the SPLA moved south. On 24 January, just one day after both sides signed a ceasefire agreement in Addis Ababa, the SPLA attacked rebel positions at Dan Dok, 50 km south of Bentiu. On 31 January, government forces retook Thar Jath, the oilfield run by Sudd Petroleum Operating Company (SPOC) where clashes first occurred on 20 December. The conflict in Unity also spilled across its borders; at the beginning of February, suspected rebel forces based in Mayendit county, conducted a cattle raid in Tonj North county, Warrap state, killing 24 people. A further attack targeted Tonj East county, in the same week, killing nine people. The SPLA advanced through Koch county at the end of January, attacking Leer town, the administrative centre of Leer county, at the beginning of February. UN satellite imagery from 2 February indicates that a large portion of the town was burned down, including 1,556 residential structures. The attack on Lear was particularly destructive because around 40,000 internally displaced people (IDPs) had fled to Leer County, some 130 km from Bentiu, following January's clashes. The SPLA attack forced many of these IDPs further south. Médecins Sans Frontières evacuated the town on 31 January, just before the clashes began. On their return, they discovered that Leer hospital was largely destroyed, leaving southern Unity without a single operative hospital for more than 250,000 people. Following the SPLA's conquest of Leer, the GRSS appointed Stephen Taker Riek as commissioner. Riek was previously commissioner of Leer, until Taban Deng Gai--the former governor of Unity, and one of Riek Machar's closest supporters--dismissed him, following local protests against his rule. He is locally unpopular, as is the presence of the SPLA. Leer county is Riek Machar's home county, and some of the excessive use of force in Leer is no doubt intended as a psychological blow against the rebel leader. The rebel forces accuse the SPLA of executing Nuer chiefs in Leer: on the 1 March, they claim, Nhial Chakuoth Malek and Machek Ninrew Lieh were taken from their houses in Gou payam, and killed, mirroring previous targeted executions in Panyijar county in February. These executions have not been confirmed, but they would be consonant with the SPLA's targeted killing of ethnic Nuer civilians elsewhere in the state. SPLA forces from Lakes state also attacked rebel positions in Paniyjar county at the beginning of February. On 7 February, attacks on a series of villages in the area killed 29 people, and forced the IDP's present in Panyijar to flee once again, into the wetlands around the White Nile. Approximately 45,000 IDPs have fled to areas around Ganylel and Nyal towns, where they lack basic supplies. Rebel forces are now dispersed in Guit, Koch, Mayendit and Leer counties, and the SPLA has control of most of southern Unity state. Clashes were reported in Guit and Koch counties on 16 February, and there is continuing insecurity in Leer and the surrounding counties. Many people in southern Unity are living in very difficult conditions in the bush, whilst as of 3 March, Leer town remains deserted, in part because of local fears that the town will be subject to renewed clashes. Rebel forces have attacked SPLA troops holding Leer town at least twice in the last month, once on 10 March, leaving 21 dead and again on 14 March: in both cases, the SPLA repelled the attackers. The west of Unity, in Mayom county, witnessed some of the worst violence in January. Mayom town, the county's capital, remains deserted. According to UN satellite imagery, taken on 11 January, some 1,801 houses were burned in clashes that began on 27 December, when rebel forces were attacked by the SPLA and by South Sudan Liberation Army troops under the command of Matthew Puljang. By mid-January, the SPLA had secured control of most of Mayom county. However, rebel groups remain active in the bush. On 8 February, nine civilians were killed on the road into Bentiu. As transport routes through southern Unity--as well as into western Upper Nile--are largely cut off to the government, due to rebel activity, the westward route to Warrap state is crucial to supplying Bentiu, and thus is a target for rebel groups. Further attacks occurred on 16 February, when rebel forces attack an aid convoy plying the route between Mayom and Yida, resulting in three contractors being kidnapped. The humanitarian situation in the state is dire. There are 70,484 people at Yida refugee camp, as of 8 March 2014, and insecurity in Unity threatens aid supplies. In Pariang county, the security situation is calm, but as of 12 March, the UN estimates there are approximately 20,000 people displaced in the territory. In total, as of 13 March 2014, there are approximately 186,000 people displaced in Unity. On 25 February, the UN reported that it had managed to provide food to 30,000 IDPs. With the first rains coming early this year, and the March-April planting season disastrously interrupted, the food security situation in the state has the capacity to become even worse. While rebel forces have now been displaced from the Thar Jath oil field, production has not yet resumed, with SPOC claiming that the security situation needs to be resolved, and even then, repair and maintenance work will need to be carried out. The Unity oil field--the largest in the state--was shut down from 19-22 December, and the oil facilities were damaged in the clashes of the last few months. The Greater Pioneer Operating Company, which runs the oil field, has now sent security staff back into the field, but even if the security situation remains stable, production will not resume in the next few months. For the GRSS, further diminution of its oil revenue could have disastrous effects on its ability to sustain itself during the conflict, and--most crucially--pay the remnants of the SPLA still loyal to the government. As of 6 March, the SPLA are carrying out security operations around the oil fields, to eliminate the remaining rebel presence. http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/facts-figures/south-sudan/conflict-of-2013-14/the-conflict-in-unity.html END1 2. The Conflict in Upper Nile State Three months have elapsed since widespread conflict broke out in South Sudan, and Malakal, Upper Nile's state capital, remains deserted and largely burned to the ground. The state is patchwork of zones of control, with the rebels holding the largely Nuer south (Longochuk, Maiwut, Nasir, and Ulang counties), and the government retaining the north (Renk), east (Maban and Melut), and the crucial areas around Upper Nile's oil fields. The rest of the state is contested. The conflict in Upper Nile began as one between different factions within the SPLA but has now broadened to include the targeted ethnic killing of civilians by both sides. With the status of negotiations in Addis Ababa unclear, and the rebels' 14 March decision to refuse a regional peacekeeping force, conflict in the state shows no sign of ending in the near future. With the first of the seasonal rains now beginning, humanitarian costs of ongoing conflict are likely to be substantial. Conflict began in Upper Nile on 24 December 2013, after a largely Nuer contingent of the Sudan People's Liberation Army's (SPLA) 7th division, under the command of General Gathoth Gatkuoth, declared their loyalty to former vice-president Riek Machar and clashed with government troops in Malakal. Fighting continued for three days. The central market was looted and shops set on fire. Clashes also occurred in Tunja (Panyikang county), Wanding (Nasir county), Ulang (Ulang county), and Kokpiet (Baliet county), as the SPLA's 7th division fragmented, largely along ethnic lines, and clashed among themselves, and with armed civilians. The SPLA regained control of the state capital on 27 December. Government forces received support from General Johnson Olony, whose forces accepted an amnesty in June 2013. Olony then moved his 3,000 troops into Kodok, Fashoda county, on the west bank of the Nile. Just as in Unity state, where the former rebel forces of the South Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SSLM/A) are fighting alongside the SPLA, shifting state-politics have pushed Olony's largely Shilluk forces into closer alliance with the SPLA. There is continuing animosity between Olony's troops and the now-rebel Nuer forces that, before December 2013, were SPLA troops deployed in Manyo county. These forces had previously been under the command of the Bul Nuer commander Peter Gadet, who is now leading the rebellion in Jonglei state. These forces repelled Olony's 2011 attack on Owachi, in Panyikang county--the headquarters of the SPLA's 7th Division--and then detained and harassed Shilluk civilians in Malakal in 2010-11. What was a hostile relationship between the Shilluk and the SPLA--prior to the outbreak of the rebellion--has now been transformed into clashes between Olony's forces and the former-SPLA, now rebel troops stationed in Manyo county. As the SPLA regained control of Malakal, the rebel forces withdrew to Ulang county, and from there to Nasir county, the former stronghold of Riek Machar during the second civil war. Gatkuoth is a Gajiok Nuer from Nasir county who previously served as an advisor on security issues for the governor, Simon Kun Puoch, who also hails from Nasir. This indicates the degree to which, despite the high levels of inter-ethnic violence experienced by Upper Nile state, the conflict is as much intra-ethnic, as rival Nuer commanders fight each other. Sporadic clashes continued in the state in early January, with the SPLA pre-emptively splitting in Fashoda county to avoid violence, and splits also emerging in Adong, Baliet, and Obel. In many cases, these splits do not seem to be motivated by a grand strategy, but are dictated by anxiety and tension on the ground--soldiers fear if they do not pre-emptively split and declare their loyalty to the relevant faction, they will be attacked. Following rebel attacks on 12 January at Gorachell and Adong, some 80 km south of the state capital, the rebels managed to recapture Malakal on 14 January, bombarding the city early in the morning and recapturing it during the afternoon. Dissident elements of SPLA's 7th division were supplemented by large groups of young Nuer fighters recruited in Longochuk, Maiwut, Nasir, and Ulang counties. Witnesses reported several thousand fighters were involved (rebel claims of 20,000 fighters have not been substantiated). When the rebels captured Malakal, they engaged in widespread looting and the killing of civilians--often on an ethnic basis. On 20 January, the government again recaptured Malakal, and the SPLA also looted and burned civilian properties, this time carrying out the targeted killing of Nuer men. Despite the ceasefire agreement both sides signed on 23 January, clashes continued in Upper Nile. On 5 February, Gatkuoth issued a statement indicating that he rejected the ceasefire arrangement and would continue fighting until Kiir left office. James Dak, Machar's spokesperson, claimed that Gatkuoth's statement was misconstrued, but subsequent events indicated that Gatkuoth had little intention of abiding by the cessation of hostilities agreement. Clashes continued at the beginning of February, with the rebels making steady gains against the SPLA. On 11 February, the rebel forces attacked Owachi, the SPLA 7th division headquarters. While the SPLA claimed they repulsed the rebels, officials in the local administration claimed that the rebels overran the government forces. In subsequent days, the rebels attacked positions at Baliet, and gradually encircled the state capital, advancing to Doleib, just south of Malakal, on 15-16 February. The rebels again recaptured Malakal on 18 February, in an attack that began early in the morning from three directions, with rebel forces advancing from the south, north, and east. Troops fighting with Olony, who was defending the south of Malakal, reported that Nuer soldiers still aligned with the government in the north and east of the city left their positions during the attack, cutting off radio contact with their fellow fighters in the south. On 21 February, the Government of the Republic of South Sudan (GRSS) claimed that this was a 'tactical withdrawal' to the southern part of the city, but other sources inside the state government claim that the SPLA troops fled west and north. During the attack, Olony was shot in the neck but survived. Garang Tong Atak, a Malual Dinka from Northern Bahr el Ghazal and a respected SPLA brigadier, was killed in the attack. The damage to the town after the battle of 18 February was extensive. Looting continued, and on 20 February, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) said that displaced people were reporting the rape and killing of their relatives. Human Rights Watch subsequently said that there were credible reports of rebel forces killing people within Malakal hospital, with MSF reporting that patients were shot in their beds. As of mid-March, Malakal is almost entirely deserted, and its pre-conflict population is living in the UN base at Malakal and in the surrounding villages, with the UN reporting that some 116,300 people are displaced in the state as a whole as of 13 March. With the rainy season now beginning, humanitarian resources are extremely stretched, and--given that March is normally the beginning of the planting season--the absence of a harvest this year could have catastrophic effects. Following their recapture of Malakal, the rebels initially moved north-east, towards Akoka county, on the road to Upper Nile's principal oil installation at Paloich. Akoka fell to the rebels on 20 February. Clashes also occurred around Melut, to the west of Paloich. Some rebel forces also moved east, to Guel Guk, on the border of Maban county, and only 30 km south of Adar, one of the state's main oil fields, where clashes broke out on 24 February. The SPLA rebuffed rebel attacks on Adar and Paloich in February, however. Witnesses in Malakal report that at the beginning of March, rebel forces announced their intention to capture the oil fields, presumably to attempt to use them as a source of income. But without the technical staff, and the Government of Sudan's acquiescence, the oil fields, and the oil processing facility at Paloich, cannot be used by the rebels. Cutting off GRSS access to vitally needed oil income by shutting down the fields is an important strategic goal for the rebels, however, and would be an important card at the negotiating table. The ongoing conflict in the state has impacted oil production, but not as drastically as in Unity, were oil extraction has already stopped entirely. On 20 February, an official in the GRSS oil ministry said that production in Upper Nile had fallen to 170,000 barrels per day (from 200,000 before the conflict--80% of South Sudan's total oil production) due to difficulties getting technical assistance and supplies to the oil field. Clashes in Malakal hindered road access, and leaving the GRSS reliant on unreliable river transport. The high political stakes associated with the oil fields are indicated by the controversial sacking of Francis Ayul from his position as state minister of petroleum in Upper Nile. On 21 February, Ayul told Bloomberg that oil companies were shutting down production at the Adar and Gumri oil fields, and evacuating foreign workers to Juba. The next day, the GRSS denied that this was the case, and claimed that the national government had not been consulted on those decisions. Three days later, GRSS President Salva Kiir sacked Ayul without comment. While it has not been determined whether Adar has fully shut down, several of the international oil companies have removed their personnel, hampering extraction operations. In contrast, as 17 March 2014, all the Upper Nile state oil fields remain in the hands of government forces. Since the end of February, the rebel's advance in Upper Nile has slowed, and clashes are more geographically dispersed. On the west bank of the Nile, there were initially few clashes, with initial battles limited to Manyo County, where there were battles on 18 January at Wadakona, leading up to a rebel occupation of the important port of Kaka. On 24 January, government forces retook Kaka. There were further clashes in Manyo county on 10 February. Despite initial splits in the SPLA in Fashoda county, which is led by the Nuer commander, Thomas Tut, Fashoda remained calm through February. Fashoda is Olony heartland, and his forces largely guarantee the security of the area. On 28 February, however, rebel forces crossed the Nile, and attacked Fashoda county, though they were repulsed. The deleterious effect of the clashes in Fashoda--which is principally Shilluk--is compounded by the presence of refugees from South Kordofan around Kodok, the county capital. The refugees are particularly at risk of attack from rebel forces, as they are accused of being members of the Sudan Revolutionary Front, which the rebels claim is working with the SPLA. As of 15 March, however, Fashoda, like much of the west bank of the Nile, remains firmly in the hands of the SPLA. Ironically, this is partly because the SPLA troops that attacked Shilluk communities in the area in 2010-11 are now largely part of the rebel forces. Maban county, which borders Blue Nile in Sudan, is also firmly in the hands of the government. However, tension has risen in the area after SPLA forces from Melut--which has also declared its loyalty to Kiir--occupied part of Maban, around the edge of the Gumri and Adar oil fields, leading to a war of words between the two county commissioners in the middle of February. Maban county, just north of the rebel heartlands of Longochuk and Nasir, has announced it will organize defense forces against external threats. Instability in Upper Nile has also spilled over into the large refugee camps in Maban. On 3 March, five refugees from Blue Nile were killed in clashes between Ingessana refugees at the Yusuf Batil camp, and host communities in Maban county. At least another person died in further clashes at the Jendrasa camp on 6 March. These clashes are partly motivated by greatly increased tensions in the state at large, and by the subsequent difficulty in getting food into the state, with transport between Ethiopia and South Sudan frequently interrupted, leading to food shortages, and aggravating tensions between refugees from Blue Nile and the host community. Renk, in the north of Upper Nile State, was largely unaffected by clashes in the first two months of the conflict, and remains a bastion of government support. However, the county received large numbers of refugees fleeing Malakal, Ajoka, and Baliet. Road transport from Malakal to Renk was also disrupted due to the attacks in January and February. By the end of February, many people in Renk started to flee north, towards Sudan. This situation will no doubt be aggravated by the 10 March decision by the state government of Upper Nile to temporarily move the state capital to Renk because of the rebels' occupation of Malakal. On 10 March, there was a rally against this decision in Renk town, and community leaders of the Abialang Dinka subsequently filed a petition to the county commissioner asking the state government to reverse its decision; the community fears that if Renk were to become the state capital, it would invite rebel attack. The largely Nuer counties in the south of Upper Nile state, bordering Ethiopia and Jonglei state, are the basis for the rebel's support, and provides many of the fighters currently in combat elsewhere in the state. The importance of Nasir county, in particular, was indicated on 2 March, when the GRSS spokesman at talks in Addis Ababa claimed that the Machar delegation refused to allow Nasir to be included in the list of areas that to be monitored by ceasefire observers. On 4 March, Nasir county ordered all police forces in the area to report to Nasir town, pending redeployment to Malakal--this included the forces from Longochuk, Nasir, and Ulang counties. As of mid-March, several areas of Upper Nile remain contested, including Payikang county, where there were ongoing clashes in Tonga Payam at the beginning of March, and Malakal county, at Lelo and south of Akoka. The clashes south of Akoka on 5-6 March indicate that prior rebel advances are not irreversible. These clashes are reportedly between rebel forces and local Dinka community fighters. Guel Guk, south of the Adar oil field, is also still contested. On 14 March, the SPLA launched yet another attack on rebel-occupied Malakal from the north and east of the city, with fighting on 17 March centred on Khor Nyingara, to the north of Malakal town. As of 18 March, the rebels retain control of Malakal. http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/facts-figures/south-sudan/conflict-of-2013-14/the-conflict-in-upper-nile.html END2 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan, South Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +211 919 695 362 (South Sudan mobile) +27 79 832 8834 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52662 - 00100, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. 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