Let's not forget the original issue was someone ignorant in the way of the sprinkler. The school personnel said the head just went off and freezing was not an issue. This is important because spontaneous failure of a head is rather rare. But the system leaking from any point due to any reason is rather common. I'd venture a guess every system will leak within the first 5-10 years make the odds 1. A few might get away clean but others will double up so the stat is still 1. This thought would encompass every possible cause, freezing, forklifts, baseballs, plumbers unplugging air compressors, moving companies, added HVAC or heaters, MIC, plain old aging or just your (and mine) field guys making a mistake like pulling the cap off a live system. Hell many even think fire and the subsequent water is the fault of the sprinkler.
So everybody is right here, spontaneous heads are tough to call statistically, insurance might have some data but not all leaks are sent to an insurance company, system vs. heads are very different statistics. And any statistic any where in any field is really created with a best guess. Like in the commercial 90% of statistics are made up on the spot. And if I say 87.2356% of statistic are made up on the spot it is even more believable because I've added precision (sort of). Add in the gov't has determined I am minimally competent to make SWAG's to the general public elevates it more. The 24% from FM I think it totally plausible. Joe's assertion don't believe the hype is also true. Chris Cahill, P.E. Fire Protection Engineer Sentry Fire Protection, Inc. 763-658-4483 763-658-4921 fax Email: [email protected] Mail: P.O. Box 69 Waverly, MN 55390 Location: 4439 Hwy 12 SW Waverly, MN 55390 -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Matthew J. Willis Sent: Wednesday, February 18, 2009 2:15 PM To: [email protected] Subject: RE: leak statistic Interestingly enough, FM Data sheet 8-21, Roll Paper storage, has a 15 year study of loss. This is broken down by fire, sprinkler leakage, water damage and a few others. Sprinkler Leakage was second highest at 24.7% of total loss. R/ Matt Matthew J. Willis Norred Fire Systems L.L.C. 318-387-1134 Voice 318-387-1163 Facsimile [email protected] -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of å... .... Sent: Wednesday, February 18, 2009 1:20 PM To: [email protected] Subject: leak statistic All due respect Joe, I know you forgot more than i ever will know. but to say "there is no way" sounds a bit... well, too absolute. i don't believe in ever's, never's and forever's with most things. even if we developed a zero-point-one order model it would be better than simply throwing our hands up, again. just thinking out loud, but that 0.1 order model could begin with insurance company claims that were made and substantiated. sampling is a common tool of statistics. Statistics is as much an art as some geotechnics and fire protection, yet statistics has got us to leptons and hadrons. One need not inventory the entire population, to get a pulse on what is happening. i won't believe, but i still want to hear, what the numbers are that are out there. scot deal excelsior fire engineering And yes, i thank you and Steve and Thom and all for keeping me honest. but I am not trying to cheat on ya. _______________________________________________ Sprinklerforum mailing list http://lists.firesprinkler.org/mailman/listinfo/sprinklerforum For Technical Assistance, send an email to: [email protected] To Unsubscribe, send an email to:[email protected] (Put the word unsubscribe in the subject field) _______________________________________________ Sprinklerforum mailing list http://lists.firesprinkler.org/mailman/listinfo/sprinklerforum For Technical Assistance, send an email to: [email protected] To Unsubscribe, send an email to:[email protected] (Put the word unsubscribe in the subject field) _______________________________________________ Sprinklerforum mailing list http://lists.firesprinkler.org/mailman/listinfo/sprinklerforum For Technical Assistance, send an email to: [email protected] To Unsubscribe, send an email to:[email protected] (Put the word unsubscribe in the subject field)
