My back of an envelop calculations were a little off (not affecting the
conclusions). The right approximation of the collision probability is:

   P(n,k) = k^2 / (2n).

It gives only about 20% error, when applied to the birthday problem
(k=19 instead of 23, and in the case of 100 entries, the 50% chance of
a collision is estimated at k=10, instead of the accurate value of 12).
When n/k^2 is large (k^2 is small compared to n) the approximation is
very good.

Also, the 10^-9 chance of a collision among 128-bit blocks occurs at
around k = 2^50, not 2^39.

Still, they are just back of an envelop calculations, performed in 10
minutes, so there could be more errors.

Laszlo

> -------- Original Message --------
> Subject: RE: P1619 D4 draft
> From: dtufs <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Date: Sat, February 25, 2006 8:25 am
> To: [email protected]
> 
> --- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> 
> > What you are referring to is a weak form of the
> > birthday paradox
> 
> I've never heard that birthday paradox had two
> "forms". Could you describe the "weak form" in detail
> please?
> 
> 
> > From the strong form, you get back the week
> > form (approximately)with simple arithmetic.
> 
> How? 
> 
> 
> 
> > If you have 50% chance that the crypto breaks on 
> > your hard disk, it is not a secure system.
> 
> So you are saying that a 10% chance makes a secure
> system? Is the difference between 50% and 10%
> considerable? A secure system is where the chance is
> negligible, i.e., close to zero. Can you see why it is
> infeasible to specify the _lower_ bound? (Lower bound
> is two blocks.)
> 
> 
> > How much chance do you want to take?
> 
> Zero. 
> 
> 
> > Accepting 10% risk
> 
> Again, where did this 10% come from? What is it based
> on? The birthday bound, 2**(n/2), is commonly used
> when assessing security of hash functions or RNGs.
> This bound is perfectly substantiated. Collisions in
> PRPs and PRFs are statistically not to be expected
> sooner than after 2**(n/2) querries. For LRW this
> bound is three times lower. Which gives us ~2**63.2
> querries for 128-bit blocks. This is the _upper_
> bound, yes. So going close to it is not recommended.
> But this is substantiated. 10% is not based on
> anything. You can get a collision after just two
> querries. The _lower_ bound for PRPs is q=2.
> 
> If you want to use 10% bound, then back it up by
> something. I don't know how I would explain this limit
> to my customers. It appears to be just made up (a nice
> round figure). Can anyone see the problem?
> 
> Regards,
> Ian Malik
> 
> 
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