-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Voltas: Monsoon On---Voltas Gone ? 300 Zone May Offer Good Sup
Followed By 277 And 375 Might Be The Nr.Term TGT
Date: Thu, 23 Jul 2015 09:14:46 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
To: undisclosed-recipients:;
Technically, Voltas (CMP:308) has immediate support of around 305-300
zone and sustain below that, it may fall to 292-285-277 area. Only
consecutive closing below 277, Voltas may further fall to 270-255-245 &
236-225-202 in the near term under worst bear case scenario.
On the upside, sustaining above 305, immediate target may be
314-317-325. Only consecutive closing above 325, it may further scale to
336-342-348-360 & 375 area in the near term under bullish market scenario.
In brief, for Voltas, 277-300 & 360-375 might be very good demand and
supply zone in the near term.
Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional)
SL</>5 FROM SLR
Voltas CMP 308
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 SLR
Strong > 300
305 314 317-325* 336 342 348 360-375
<296
Weak < 296
292 285 277* 270 255 245 236-225 >300
Voltas corrected by around 15% so far from its recent peak amid better
than expected monsoon hits us in the month of June after scorching heat
wave during March-May. Traditionally, monsoon period is a dull season
for AC makers and add to this, there was some downgrade of Voltas by
Nomura, citing weaker growth in room AC sales and sluggish recovery of
EMP (Electro Mechanical Projects) segment. Market is also cautious about
Q1 result of Voltas amid slow down in AC sales and being accompanied by
heavy discounts & free installations among various other competitors.
But dull monsoon season after a bumper summer for AC sales is nothing
new and sales of AC will probably pick up from coming festival season
(Sep-Oct onwards till winter).
On the other side, as par HSBC, Voltas has a strong brand recall and
concern about market growth, market share & sustainability of margin
expansion is over done.India's average AC penetration level is a mere 3%
(with metro/urban India at around 24%), is very low compared to Asian
counterparts.
Looking ahead, increase in discretionary spending on the back of over
all expected economic recovery (H2FY16 ??) & "Smart City/Affordable
Housing" theme may benefit the overall AC segment and Voltas, being a
strong brand having superb distribution & servicing chain, might be a
bright spot in this segment. GST may also help a bit.
Voltas is now active in low cost high margin air cooler business, which
may also help it to sustain market leadership in the days ahead, As par
HSBC's SOTP model, fair projected valuation of Voltas is around 380
(UCP@295+MEP@36+ESB@48).
As par BG metrics, current median valuation of Voltas may be around 260
and its projected fair valuation might be around 300-325-365 (FY:16-18).
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) LONG TERM SHORT TERM MEDIAN
VALUE 200-DEMA 10-DEMA
VOLTAS 11.62 63.53 19.66 251.96 268.00 259.98 277.89 314.39
VOLTAS 14.5 73.15 19.66 281.46 299.37 290.41 277.89 314.39
VOLTAS 18.2 84.5 19.66 315.33 335.40 325.36 277.89 314.39
VOLTAS 22.85 98.5 19.66 353.32 375.81 364.57 277.89 314.39
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UMPWYUc1rdo/VbBhG_VesAI/AAAAAAAADew/fjt4zWcvUlM/s1600/VOLTAS-22-07-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vt3wi6uUx5Q/VbBhId3bO-I/AAAAAAAADe4/gBu_aTCV6rU/s1600/VOLTAS-FIBB-22-07-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bLs1AerpVRQ/VbBhKC7AMbI/AAAAAAAADfA/yBOYKhoy3tk/s1600/VOLTAS-WK-22-07-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ba4YgisuSXo/VbBhLvDnXrI/AAAAAAAADfI/xqauu_Qdqig/s1600/VOLTAS-TL-22-07-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-r33-0GAb01Q/VbBhNtWBt2I/AAAAAAAADfQ/C-rrJwDMT8Y/s1600/VOLTAS-PATTERN-22-07-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qHIcoq3rQXk/VbBhQD3DM0I/AAAAAAAADfY/9jhh8THjCfI/s1600/VOLTAS-PATTERN-MT-22-07-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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