-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Adani Ports: Has To Sustain Abv 230-240 Zone For Further
Strength
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2016 09:09:15 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
For APSEZ, consecutive closing above 235-240 area,
it may rally further towards 280-300 zone;
Otherwise it will be weak and sustain below 215-211 zone,
may again fall to 195-170 area
Continued global & India slowdown may hurt cargo movements and earnings;
Q3FY16 result indicated that the much expected conversion
from bulk-dry cargo to liquid and container cargo is not happening
With TTM EPS at 12.61, the more reasonable PE may be around 15
instead of 20 in the current and expected overall weak trade scenario
(Risk: Fast changing political scenario;
probable absence of NAMO wave in 2019 election;
and huge consolidated debt on the Adani group)
*Trading Idea:*
CMP: 228
Sell either below 230 or on rise around 235-240;
TGT: 211*-195-170-150 (1-3M)
TSL> 246
*Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 246 for any reason, APSEZ may
further rally up to 270*-280-290* & 300-320*-375 zone in the short to
long term (alternative bullish case scenario for the current trading level).
*As par BG metrics & current market scenario:*
(based on consolidated TTM & projected FWD EPS)
Current median valuation of APSEZ may be around: 215 (FY:15-16/TTM)
Projected fair valuations might be around: 225-240 (FY:17-18/FWD)
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) Low High Median
200-DEMA 10-DEMA
ADANIPORTS 12.61 51.98 15 225.59 198.42 212.00 269.05 208.14
ADANIPORTS 12.75 62.4 15 226.84 199.52 213.18 269.05 208.14
ADANIPORTS 14.05 74.95 15 238.12 209.44 223.78 269.05 208.14
ADANIPORTS 16.25 89.9 15 256.09 225.24 240.67 269.05 208.14
*Analytical Charts:*
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9M-V9KlfO5o/VtkAMLvpMvI/AAAAAAAAGWQ/86L4N0WPCIs/s1600/AP-03-03-3016.png>
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UQtF1Dvzi2U/VtkAOObEljI/AAAAAAAAGWQ/0KhJHsYn4Y8/s1600/AP-FIBB-03-03-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UMzK3XWSeR0/VtkAP0Q6pvI/AAAAAAAAGWQ/p_TgGQ8dxXk/s1600/AP-WK-03-03-2016.png>
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_lhNig4CerI/VtkAR2jOykI/AAAAAAAAGWQ/Ma2T_QyoyKM/s1600/AP-PATTERN-03-03-2016.png>
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UDhwjhqSqjE/VtkAVKSeDwI/AAAAAAAAGWI/-0YMtPwU-M8/s1600/AP-TL-03-03-2016.png>
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4hO3lxH-wD0/VtkAYrgdmeI/AAAAAAAAGWM/u1zp2yes_Qk/s1600/AP-TL-MT-03-03-2016.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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