-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Nifty Fut(May): Sustain Below 7820-7780 Zone, Expect 7540-7450
In The Short Term
Date: Fri, 29 Apr 2016 09:13:00 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
SGX NF: 7880 (CMP)
NSE-NF: 7895 (LTP)
*Trading Idea: NSE-NF (May)*
*Either sell around 7920-7980 or on rise around 8010-8055-8075-8095;*
*
*
*TGT: 7820*-7780-7740-7705-7660*-7605-7540*-7505-7440-7295 (5-15 days);*
*
*
*TSL> 8150-8180*
*Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 8150-8180 for any reason, NF
may further rally up to 8240*-8310-8405-8550 & 8750-8935-9210 in the
near to mid term (alternative bullish case scenario).
Yesterday's epic BOJ inaction may be an indication that Central Bankers
are increasingly out of ammunition for more QQE. Although, there was not
so much expectation of more BOJ QQE this time, some of the BOJ/Kuroda
comments about GDP and inflation (lower target then previous estimates)
in Japan hurts the traders sentiment and consequently USDJPY dumped
(risk aversion mode). It seems that BOJ is in no mood for more QQE until
USDJPY fall below 105 or more and basically kicking the can to the
Japanese Govt for more structural or monetary stimulus. Perhaps, BOJ and
Abenomics are not so sure about the effect of the NIRP and they may
observe for more time and mood of the Japanese people are also not so
great about the possible spillover effect of this NIRP.
After failed NIRP (negative interest of certain bank deposits) in
Jan'16, BOJ is thinking for some negative interest on lending too !!.
All eyes now will be on June end for Fed, G-7 and BOJ meet. Its now
almost certain that Fed is not going to think seriously for any hike
before Dec'16 (after US election) and until then it will continue its
verbal intervention in a co-ordinated manner with ECB/BOJ/PBOC to take
care of the market volatility. Ultimately Fed dot-plots may be changed
to four hikes in four years rather than the Dec'15 projection of four
hikes in a year (2016) and by its own words, one should not pay so much
attention in its dot-plots as its a mere academical projection. By this
way, Fed is loosing its own credibility and there are some questions
that Fed is indeed "Federal Bank Of America or China" as its basically
taking care of the USDCNY equation and USD outflow concerns from China.
But the main concern in China is now credit bubble and increasing
corporate bond defaults.
Apart from these, Brexit & also some types of Grexit fear may add some
more volatility in the market in the weeks/months ahead.
BOJ may consider some 3-D QQE after forthcoming G-7 meeting in Japan at
June end so that Japan may not be termed as "currency manipulator" as a
"host country".
After all the years of competitive QQE (Fed/ECB/BOJ/PBOC), it seems that
its a "zero sum" game as there is little improvement in real economic
growth and policy makers are now claiming to avert the
deflation/de-growth at least. On the other side, QQE easy money paved
the way for excess production of commodities (like oil, steel etc) and
the consequent poor demand & excess supply dynamics is now quite visible
along with related debt bombs.
Now, the question may be with decades of ZIRP/NIRP, how much more
Central Bankers may do in future to avert any serious market meltdown or
economic recession ?
Going ahead, C-3 and PBOC also may choose not to use QQE more
aggressively and keep some "bullets" in the arsenal for future "war with
deflation/recession" and in the meantime, Govt has to do more for
structural reform.
Back to home, with ongoing domestic political battle, there is little
for for passage of GST & other important reform bills this time too in
RS. This along with growing concerns for the current state of drought
and acute water crisis in major parts of the country and concerns about
Bank NPAS fiasco & consequent normal lending activities may put some
more pressure on our market apart from global factors.
On the other side, although there are some hopes for better monsoon this
year, one good year of monsoon may not be enough to compensate the
previous two years of bad monsoon.
On the positive sides, Q4FY16 results so far are decent and there are
also some early indication about overall economic recovery (?) and
increased infra spending (specially for road sectors) by the Govt.
Among all these, market will be volatile and there will be enough
opportunities to trade the same and perhaps, major Central Bankers may
also want that too !!.
NF may be also on the verge of "Golden Cross" and for any uptrend from
here, it has to sustain above 8125-8180 zone.
*Analytical Charts:*
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TahT6qfd9As/VyLWXyD9t6I/AAAAAAAAG_o/tj9Uso0_eSED-RxHIZU6y0tpIpIHPWfUgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-29-04-2016.png>
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-swa7KFaBoZo/VyLWaJhcxRI/AAAAAAAAG_s/_GPkkEDAT_IpqnnJC0xXYadYLm32qx4-gCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-29-04-2016.png>
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mPFMzIQ6hqg/VyLWcxKbPdI/AAAAAAAAG_w/_tFL7zM19Fg091kQHOuKJ39QCSWS4ei4wCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-29-04-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6rYB_7wFKAM/VyLWfE0b6MI/AAAAAAAAG_0/9VkcMadxingyZGIpkiMdg28SQAz7d0vYwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-29-04-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vfNNxfWi2Gc/VyLWheaHl0I/AAAAAAAAG_4/MM3num6uEUsA6Zuhze-wLKZJJmEeU1GCQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-TL-29-04-2016.png>
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VPfFIfgXRTA/VyLWjIgX1CI/AAAAAAAAG_8/Zj8MWcj0QFsQ6wxFINPlsr8vYOoTtbOvgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-GC-DC-29-04-2016.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
--
Kindly email stock reports at
STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com
For sharing knowledge
-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.
http://www.niftyviews.com/
Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of
www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion
and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum
doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or
iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target;
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.