-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Hero Motors: Will Be "Hero" Only Sustaining Above 3020-3060 Area
Date: Fri, 6 May 2016 09:13:18 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*Trading Idea: Hero Motors*
*
*
*CMP: 2894*
*
*
*Either Sell around 2930-2950 or on rise around 3000-3020;*
*
*
*TGT: 2840*-2790-2760*-2710-2675*-2630-2585-2540-2500-2365 (1-3/6M)*
*
*
*TSL> 3060*
*Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days), HM may further rally up to
3100-3180*-3220-3275*-3335 & 3360-3500-3900 in the near to long term
(alternative bullish case scenario).
Q4FY16 result of HM printed slightly below street estimates and going
ahead, there may be pressure on EBITDA margin as advantage of lower base
effect of commodity prices and ED concessions from the Haridwar plant
may not be there.
Also, with current state of extreme heat waves and drought accompanied
by previous two years insufficient and disorderly rainfalls, rural India
demand may not pick up sufficiently.
All eyes will be on the actual rain fall and its distribution/timing
this year and even if we have normal monsoon this time, this may not be
sufficient to address the rural distress problem for the last few years.
Unless macroeconomic situation improves in India considerably, consumers
will also hesitate to spend more on discretionary spending even with 7PC
induced liquidity (lack of consumer confidence).
For HM, Q4FY16 EPS came at 40.77 against result day consensus of 41.06
(lagged by 0.7%) and earlier estimate of 42.65 (lagged by 4.6%).
*For HM: Standalone*
Q4FY16 TTM EPS: 156.85 (FY16/Actual)
Projected FWD EPS: 174.95-195.15-217.50 (FY:17-19/Estimates)
Average PE: 20 (15-25)
*As par BG metrics and current market parameters:*
Present median value may be around: 2975 (FY:16/TTM)
Projected fair value might be around: 3140-3315-3500 (FY:17-19/FWD)
HEROMOTOCO EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) Low High Median 200-DEMA
10-DEMA
Q4FY16/TTM 156.85 384.9 20 2904.61 3030.74 2967.68 2689.437
2928.0801
FY17/FWD 174.95 452.45 20 3067.63 3200.84 3134.23 2689.437
2928.0801
FY18/FWD 195.15 531.55 20 3239.89 3380.58 3310.23 2689.437
2928.0801
FY19/FWD 217.5 625.45 20 3420.39 3568.91 3494.65
2689.437 2928.0801
*Analytical Charts:*
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dkB_OrbrmTg/VywP-t74oXI/AAAAAAAAHD4/PeNrAVWvhw4XqzlomaH5T1yfo6drkM1ygCLcB/s1600/HM-05-05-2016.png>
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ODnFqdZXbS8/VywQBbjRPYI/AAAAAAAAHD8/k9Wxx_nnFx45vGi_9_QcNwol64WekwAHACLcB/s1600/HM-FIBB-05-05-2016.png>
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7k7bhNpDfg4/VywQDDiS-4I/AAAAAAAAHEA/ihS-jH_H1SIpCBxONrNILmT5eazKLT6OQCLcB/s1600/HM-WK-05-05-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xnc-WPiT7x0/VywQEpBoQ-I/AAAAAAAAHEE/fSFXSqzrQEYfLZO4HqyjvnF_ju3yO0J9gCLcB/s1600/HM-TL-05-05-2016.png>
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y7TE6NG_nmU/VywQJIHTSvI/AAAAAAAAHEI/OBhkbNUabYw15c-AQKggR4ljTbUGNdfSgCLcB/s1600/HM-TL-MT-05-05-2016.png>
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nKfqIKy8mnU/VywQM5qN_hI/AAAAAAAAHEM/t9Uks6x5xpo_VXfzDbEKrh5CKD3-smxxgCLcB/s1600/HM-EW-05-05-2016.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
--
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