*Market Mantra: 14/12/2016 (08:30)*
*Watch 8250-8325 & 8185-8125 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open
Around 8220 Today*
*All eyes will be on the India WPI & Fed’s dot plots & economic
projection for 2017 today (forward guidance) as 0.25% rate hike may be
already discounted by the market.*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8220,
almost flat following tepid global cues on concern about Fed outlook for
US rate hikes & overall economy in 2017 as market may be already
digested the much anticipated 0.25% rate hike today.
A “surprise” will be no rate hike or hike by 0.50% by Fed, which is most
unlikely at this point of time, because in that scenario, Fed’s own
credibility will be at stake, considering its 2015 dot plots forecast (4
rate hikes in 2016!!) & subsequent flip flops and the jawboning for the
last few months for an annual hike in 2016 as overall US economic data
may be well over the Fed’s tolerance level for a 0.25% rate hike as of now.
Market may be also expecting at least 2 rate hikes in 2017 @0.25%
(June-Dec) and any significant deviation from that projection may cause
some volatility in the global as well as Indian market in the days ahead.
If Fed take the script of “Dovish/Owlish” hike today, USD may fall to
some extent and in the case of any “Hawkish” hike, USD may rally
further, causing significance pressure on the EM currencies and the
market including India.
Back to home, all eyes may be on the WPI today after yesterday’s
surprise fall in CPI, which may be another indication of the economic
slowdown as an immediate impact of the demonetization. WPI is expected
to come around 3.10% for Nov against Oct figure of 3.39%.
As par some reports, to contain the demonetization “pain” for the
general public ahead of state elections, Govt may shortly announce some
relief measures and social spending packages intended for the “Aam Admi”
and small businesses/traders, which has big traditional support base for
the BJP/RSS. Govt may be also exploring various ways for some tax cuts
and a “dream: budget for FY-18 in expectation for a “huge” windfall gain
after the demonetization, which so far yield insignificant benefit
against the overall collateral damages already done to the economy.
All eyes will be on the demonetization debate in the Parliament also in
the last three days left after hopes for GST passage is almost dashed in
the current winter session.
*Technically, NF needs to sustain above 8250 zone for any rebound
towards 8300/8325*-8375 & 8405/8435*-8485 area today (under bullish case
scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 8225 area, NF may further fall
towards 8185/8165*-8125 & 8085-8040* zone for the day (under bear case
scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18490) need to stay above 18550 area for any
rebound towards 18675-18800* & 18900-19100* zone for the day (under
bullish case scenario).*
*On the downside, sustaining below 18450 zone, BNF may further fall
towards 18300-18200/18150* & 17950*-17850 area for the day (under bear
case scenario).*
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UM8eJsC86fI/WFDC5z8qE0I/AAAAAAAAJyg/0xwMTKIv_VEjR90J4sLJsALl6UjmJ6lDACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-14-12-2016.png>
SGX-NF
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bOn4cnh2Q5Q/WFDC7HV7_wI/AAAAAAAAJyk/rY2SWh0k0nk0IVgZR82fnzaiKC0UuCNwACLcB/s1600/BNF-13-12-2016.png>
BNF
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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