*Market Mantra: 05/01/2017 (08:30)*
*Watch 8195-8150 & 8265-8310 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open
Around 8240 Today*
*Some fall in USD may help Indian market today; but tepid PMI data and
uncertainty about GST & Budget day may also drag.*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8240 (+32
points) after FOMC minutes reveals “less hawkish” tone of the Fed
regarding rate hikes in 2017.
Basically, Fed will be data & Trump dependent and may “gradually” hike
in 2017-18. Thus going forward, US incoming economic data and actual
plan & implementation of Trump’s fiscal & trade policies may matter most
for Fed and depending upon that Fed may either hike twice or thrice in
2017.
So, in that sense, Fed will be “owlish” rather than “dovish” or
extremely “hawkish”. Market may be still assuming that Fed will hike
twice in 2017 regardless of “Trumpism”, if Fed’s own mandate of maximum
employment and reasonable inflation/growth is visible in the forthcoming
data.
Thus, today’s ISM Non-Mfg PMI & tomorrow’s NFP job data, specially wage
growth may be vital for USD before Trump actually take charge of the
White House on 20^th Jan.
Back to home, Govt may also shortly announce officially that GST
implementation is “practically” not possible from April’17, given the
present lack of political consensus and various other administrative
hurdles (time is running out).
Politics may take centre stage in lieu of economics for the domestic
market in the days ahead amid series of state elections, which may also
be seen as a referendum for “Modinomics” & demonetization.
As, budget presentation day (1^st Feb) falls just before election start
day of 4^th Feb, EC/Govt may be obliged to postpone it to a later day
after election process (11^th March) and in that scenario, FY-18 budget
may be presented around 31^st March.
*Hints for actionable trading ideas at index level:*
*Technically, NF has to stay above 8265 area for further rally towards
8310/8335*-8365/8410 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 8245 zone, NF may fall towards
8195-8150* & 8100*-8040 area for the day (under bear case scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF (LTP: 17952) has to sustain over 18250 zone for further
rebound towards 18400*-18600 & 18675*-18800 area for the day (under
bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 18200 area, BNF may further fall
towards 18000-17900* & 17800-17600* zone for the day (under bear case
scenario).*
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LRMB2ee-_as/WG3CP7Kwt8I/AAAAAAAAKDg/b5ccxw7bdT4HM0Wnrv5Q2mUbfc6L-SBjQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-05-01-2017.png>
SGX-NF
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cmcDct8s5Jk/WG3CR3M817I/AAAAAAAAKDk/GJhNDpjFz6c4Zp4NhzMzwQWtI61tp75NQCLcB/s1600/BNF-04-01-2017.png>
BNF
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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