*Market Wrap: 09/03/2017 (19:00)*
*Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (March @8956) has to
sustain over 9020-9035 area for further rally towards 9075-9125 &
9195-9275 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 8995 zone, NF may fall towards
8945-8900 & 8865-8795 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF (LTP: 20795) has to sustain over 20950 area for further
rally towards 21050-21150 & 21350-21500 area in the near term (under
bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 20900 area, BNF may fall towards
20750-20600 & 20490-20250 zone in the near term (under bear case scenario).*
Nifty Fut (March) today closed around 8956 (+4 points), almost flat
after gyrating most of the days in a range with an opening minutes low
of 8913 and a day high of 8978 as market turned cautious ahead of exit
polls later in the day and the actual result on 11^th March, Saturday,
despite predictable wins for BJP/NAMO in all of the states including UP,
but except in Punjab. As election is an election, full of uncertainty,
market/investors may not believe the exit/opinion poll results anymore;
recent Indian examples were Bihar & Delhi election; global example may
be Brexit & Trumpism.
Indian market today opened in negative tone following tepid Global/Asian
cues, but recovered almost instantly, may be due to some panic short
covering after yesterday’s fall. Overnight, US market fall amid slump in
Crude Oil and concerns of an impending rate hike by Fed next week after
block buster ADP job data.
Apart from increasing concerns of supply glut due to more US shale oil
productions, lack of adequate & corresponding demand may also undermine
the global growth recovery. Also, there were some talks of cut in
unproductive spending in US by Trump administration to plug the
burgeoning budget deficit to fund the planned $1 tln infra package in
PPP mode. As par some estimates, contrary to earlier perception, US
shale oil now break evens at around $30-40, thanks to their superior
tech and in that scenario, despite OPEC & Non-OPEC production cut, it
may be very tough for Oil to sustain above $55 in the near term. Also,
on deeper thinking, the present OPEC cut agreement may be more of
seasonal maintenance nature, which is bound to happen in this period of
time, even if there was no agreement. This agreement may also end
officially by June’17 itself.
*Technically, Crude Oil (LTP: 49) need to sustain above 47; otherwise it
may fall more and consistent closing below 43, may also fall to 39-25
zone in the near to midterm. On the other side, it need to sustain above
53-56 zone for any further rally towards 63-68 area in 2017.*
Back to home, all attention of the market is now hovering on the
politics rather than the economics. As exit polls are coming now, it’s
projecting a thumping win for BJP/NAMO in all of the states including
UP, but Punjab as expected.
As par polls of various exit polls for UP, which matters most to the
market (Total seats: 403; Majority: 202 ;)
BJP/NDA: 179
SP/CONG: 136
BSP: 77
OTH: 11
Although market may wait for actual result on Saturday and if BJP/NDA
got anything less than 200 seats, market may not celebrate at all and
anything less than 180, market may also take it as fractured mandate for
NAMO. Depending upon the actual result SP may also shape some post poll
alliance with BSP to be in the power. In that scenario, market may also
disappoint, because of so much effort from NAMO/BJP, there is “NAMO
WAVE” this time unlike 2014 and it may dampen the incremental reform
initiative by the Govt in the months ahead. India’s political risk may
also accelerate due to various regional parties.
Overall, from the market perspective, anything above 200 to 245 for
BJP/NDA in UP, market will rejoice NAMO and Nifty may also rally towards
9125-9195 zone, keeping in mind the high probable Fed rate hike next
week, depending upon tomorrow’s NFP job data. On the other side,
anything below 180-140 for NAMO in UP, market may also slump towards
8795-8450, depending upon the actual Fed action on 15^th March.
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WT2ihMSZASk/WMFm6Y9XsPI/AAAAAAAAKzw/u-ymU-mjdDI5GhW2OyZNeOrHdF3eC5kiACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-09-03-2017.png>
SGX-NF
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-27ghA_NWXw8/WMFm89dZiWI/AAAAAAAAKz0/BdFDQKM90_AwREKJKCO59zjJ_OOZrF8BQCLcB/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-09-03-2017.png>
BNF
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9yeAvfijjaA/WMFnA8daDqI/AAAAAAAAKz4/EL815w87kwMFf2eweXgzirLu3YBFTJKDACLcB/s1600/Crude%2BOil-Pattern-09-03-2017.png>
CRUDE OIL
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jm_k2L-UKog/WMFnDJAq6lI/AAAAAAAAKz8/PJS5KjtiAzwzZx61KTdLhtvUw06l116jwCLcB/s1600/Crude%2BOil-09-03-2017.png>
CRUDE OIL
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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