*Market Mantra: 18/04/2017 (08:30)*
*SGX-NF: 9155 (-11 points)*
*Key support for NF: 9115-9035*
*Key resistance for NF: 9200-9280*
*Key support for BNF: 21675-21500*
*Key resistance for BNF: 21775-21875*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Apr) may open around 9155,
almost flat following mixed global cues. US market yesterday made some
recovery (+0.90%) on the back of upbeat earnings expectations from
financials & banks and defence related stocks. Also, some comments by US
TSY Sec underplaying Trump’s recent rhetoric about strength of USD has
helped the USDJPY to bounce back from the vital 108 level triggering
some “risk on” trade late yesterday. Us TSY Sec (Mnuchin) made a comment
in an FT interview that although strength of USD may be bad for US
exports in the short term, it may be good for overall US economy in the
long term and Trump’s effort to talk down the USD is different from any
real action; it was just a view of Prez Trump. Mnuchin also emphasized
for US tax reform (cut), but at the same time also acknowledged about
hurdle of passage of the same in the US Cong/senate just like the fate
of the health care bill.
It now seems that US politics (Trump & Co) is driving the USD rather
than Fed and Trump is using the present geopolitical tensions over
Syria/NK to devalue the USD, just by dropping some missiles/bombs!!
But despite upbeat comments by US TSY Sec, market is concerned that NK
may be again trying for a nuke test shortly despite China’s effort to
pacify both the sides (US & NK). US on the other hand is trying to
install some missile defence system in SK, which China is vigorously
opposing. Thus, the overall lingering geopolitical issues involving NK &
US has dented the sentiment of the Asian market.
Among all these ongoing global jitters, Indian market so far was steady
overall and trading in a defined range for the last few weeks. All eyes
may be on TCS (Q4 result) and also on the other IT outsourcing cos as
Trump may review & sign some bills later in the day today for further
restrictions of H1B Visa.
Market may also look into IMD’s 1^st official forecast (around 15:00 hrs
today) about trajectory of monsoon this year. Any forecast of deficient
rainfall because of looming threat for El-Nino may also spoil the bull
party in the coming days.
PNB & BOB may be also in focus today after repots of small PSBS merger
(like SBI) with them. Also, IIB & Yes Bank will be in focus for their
result tomorrow. As par some reports, NIM of IIB may fall slightly to
3.80-3.60% this time, although it’s poised to report another “bumper”
quarter.
*Hints for actionable trading idea: Nifty & Bank Nifty Fut*
*Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (Apr) has to sustain over
9235 area for further rally towards 9280-9310 & 9375-9425 in the short
term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 9215-9200 area, NF may fall towards
9160/40-9115 & 9085-9035 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 21825 area for further rally towards
21875-21975 & 22050-22150 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 21775 area, BNF may fall towards
21600-21500 & 21340-21200 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).*
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QrYJF5x6Gdc/WPWMOf89ywI/AAAAAAAALXk/vrSSuLARQG4ORdf0S9hxm7NeBS7yLY-wACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-18-04-2017.png>
SGX-NF
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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