*Market Mantra: 21/04/2017 (08:30)*
*SGX-NF: 9180 (+17 points)*
*For the Day:*
*Key support for NF: 9160-9115/9085*
*Key resistance for NF: 9200-9255*
*Key support for BNF: 21450-21250*
*Key resistance for BNF: 21675-21775*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Apr) may open around 9180,
slightly in green following mixed global cues. Overnight US market
rallied by around 0.85% amid better than expected result from American
Express and hopes for an imminent tax cut bill by Trump. Although,
yesterday’s US economic data was tepid, a comment by US TSY Sec about
probability of introduction of the much awaited tax cut bill by Trump
has ignited the “risk on” (reflation) trade sentiment there. As par
reports, despite failure of health care bill, Trump may go ahead with
the tax reform bill and will try to persuade any dissidents for the same
by process of due consultations & also some compromises.
But, despite upbeat US market, morning Asian market sentiment was tepid
because of a terrorist attack in Paris overnight and risks of French
election on Sunday. Although, the market favourite centrist candidate
(Macron) is way ahead of the ultra right & anti EU candidate (Li Pen),
such terrorist attack may also change that perception/opinion poll in
this 1^st round of French election.
Back to home, yesterday’s RBI/MPC minutes may be described as hawkish on
inflation and upbeat on growth; thus in such scenario, further rate cut
hopes in FY-18 or foreseeable future may be equivalent to almost Nil.
RBI may focus more on NPA resolution along with ongoing AQR
(reorganization) and previous rate cut transmissions by the banks. As
par RBI, there is still room for rate cuts by the banks and also
interest rate on small savings instruments need to fall in line with
G-SEC 10Y yields. Also, as par RBI, there may not be any concrete new
NPA policy immediately and it may take some more time, especially on the
NPA hair cut policy, where the regulator may need to consult the Govt &
the stakeholders for a more effective & viable mechanism.
After mixed result from IIB & Yes Bank, market may also focus on the
report card of HDFC Bank & ACC for further cues of Q4FY17 earnings,
which is so far termed as mixed/tepid wrt very high market expectations
& subsequent stretched valuations.
*Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (Apr) has to sustain over
9240 area for further rally towards 9275-9310 & 9375-9425 for the day/in
the short term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 9220-9200 area, NF may fall towards
9160-9115 & 9085/60-9025 area for the day/in the short term (under bear
case scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 21775 area for further rally towards
21875-21975 & 22050-22150 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 21725-675 area, BNF may fall towards
21550-21450 & 21300-21150 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).*
*<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1JL4HdAeyzo/WPmA1KPZPWI/AAAAAAAALa4/ohWCUihleZI1-UUU8HPAlHEzsxVWF8guwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-21-04-2017.png>*
SGX-NF
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Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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