*Market Mantra: 26/04/2017 (08:30)*
*SGX-NF: 9210 (+15 points)*
*For the Day:*
*Key support for NF: 9275-9235*
*Key resistance for NF: 9340-9385*
*Key support for BNF: 21975-21825*
*Key resistance for BNF: 22050-22150*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Apr) may open around 9210, in
slight gap up following positive global cues. Overnight US market also
rallied by around 1% on the back of upbeat Q1 earnings & hopes for a
“huge” tax cut plan by Trump today.
Although, most of the US corporates are reporting better than expected
EPS (earnings) with an average YOY growth of more than 10%, core
earnings may not be so much upbeat as cross currency gains (other
income) may be helping a great part of their earnings so far.
Also, Trump is expected to just outline his “vision” on his “phenomenal”
tax cut/reform plan; the actual tax reform bill may be still far away
and is expected to finalize only by Sep’17 or later. Trump is expected
to announce the tax plan as par his election rhetoric at around 20% for
corporate tax with highest slab at 25% (??) with similar cuts in
personal tax too. Thus, market is expecting as a result of Trump’s huge
tax cut plan by around 10-15% (?), both US corporates & consumers may
have greater cash flow/income in hand, which they will spend to
stimulate the economy. But, even its passed in Trump’s way, there may be
significant concern for US fiscal deficit funding and with Trump’s
another plan for huge infra/fiscal spending, the fiscal math may be more
complex.
Eventually, if Trump fails to deliver more details about his Tax plan
today, market may be highly disappointed and it may be another case for
“buy the rumour & sell the news/fact”. In any way, passage of Trump’s
tax plan may happen only in CY-18 and in that scenario effect of it on
the US economy & corporate earnings may be still far away.
Indian market may look to result of Axis Bank today for a cue about
stressed assets in the old generation private banks (ICICI) after tepid
guidance from Wipro yesterday (although Q4 result may be better than
expected).
Expected huge win by BJP in the Delhi MCD may also help the market
sentiment today as it will prove that regional anti-establishment
party’s days are over in India.
*Hints for actionable trading ideas for NF & BNF:*
*Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (Apr) has to sustain over
9340 area for further rally towards 9385-9435 & 9505-9550 in the short
term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On flip side, sustaining below 9320-9275 area, NF may fall towards
9235-9180 & 9115-9080/8995 area in the short term (under bear case
scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 22150 area for further rally towards
22305-22400 & 22500-22650/22800 area in the near term (under bullish
case scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 22100-22050 area, BNF may fall
towards 21975-21825 & 21650-21350 area in the near term (under bear case
scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 21825 area, BNF may fall towards
21700-21600 & 21450-21300 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).*
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-v7FTupCuaps/WQAZm0nTeCI/AAAAAAAALek/f73TCHj_zHk1A8nN11iMtqAXQosbcohowCLcB/s1600/NF-25-04-2017.png>
NF
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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