Market Wrap: 03/07/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (July): 9628 (+111; +1.16%) (TTM PE: 24.34; Near 2 SD of 25; TTM
EPS: 395; NS: 9615)
NSE-BNF (July): 23325 (+124; +0.53%) (TTM PE: 29.27; Near 3 SD of 30;
TTM EPS: 795; BNS: 23273)
For 04/07/2017:
*Key support for NF: 9620-9560/9535*
*Key resistance for NF: 9670-9725*
*Key support for BNF: 23300-23000*
*Key resistance for BNF: 23450-23650*
*Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 9670 area for
further rally towards 9725-9775 & 9835-9875 in the short term (under
bullish case scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 9650-9620 area, NF may fall towards
9560/9535 & 9495-9440 & area in the short term (under bear case scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 23450 area for further rally towards
23550-23650 & 23800-23900 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 23400 area, BNF may fall towards
23300-23100 & 23000-22800 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).*
Nifty Fut (July) today closed around 9628, almost 111 points up as
market cheered smooth launch of GST and covered shorts in the earlier
expectation of a major GST disruptions; Nifty Fut (July) made a late day
high of 9635 and opening minutes low of 9539 and Cigarette maker ITC
almost contributed 50% of the rally on favourable GST rate & sales
optimism; although as par industry veteran, actual GST benefit may be
quite limited due to various factors.
Indian market today opened around 9548, almost 33 points gap-up tracking
mixed global cues & GST rollout in the weekend without any reports of
major disruptions contrary to earlier narratives; thus market may have
covered its short positions created on apprehensions of a major
disruption, which might be overdone.
Overnight, on Friday US market (DJ-30) closed in positive tone (+0.29%)
amid mixed US economic data, quarterly re-balancing of portfolio,
concern of QT but supported by banks.
Looking ahead, after initial euphoria is over, Indian market may
continue to gauge the impact of GST implementation on the economy for
both short & long term, as this just a beginning; one point is that most
of the SMES & informal sector may be under severe stress due to higher
compliance costs of GST under the present complex format & their
business models may have to transform; otherwise they may eventually
shut down their shutters.
The SME disruptions may have ripple effect on India’s growth &
consumption story in years ahead, unless present GST model is modified
to look into their concern. SME focused Banks may be also under further
NPA stress in the days ahead.
Meanwhile, India’s Mfg PMI came a bit disappointed for June at 50.9,
just above boom/bust line of 50 (prior: 51.6) and is lowest in the last
4 months with weak demand & slow down in both output and new orders; mfg
outlook is also subdued. This may be an adverse effect of pre-GST
disruptions (de-stocking) on the Indian economy apart from some DeMo
related issues. Overall, PMI data may be in line with market estimates
this time.
Looking ahead, apart from GST related issues, Indian market may now
focus on Q1FY18 earnings, progress of monsoon, which is so far at normal
level, RBI policy action in Aug’17 for any rate cut or not and any Govt
action to change the FY from Apr-Mar to Jan-Dec and subsequent
presentation of FY-19 budget in Nov’17 (another disruption?).
Overall, Indian auto sales data for June so far may be also in line and
this is also supporting the domestic market right now apart from
favourable GST rates on automobiles, QSR, FMCG/Cigarettes, cements etc.
June sales of Ashoke Leyland increased unexpectedly by 10% &
subsequently the stock rallied by over 5%, boosting the overall market
sentiment as MHCV is an indicator of economic activity; although it may
be also seasonal.
Technically, Nifty-Fut (July), which is now trading around 9628, need to
sustain over 9670 area for further rally; otherwise it may came down
towards 9495-9440 level.
Market may be also going to be in some confusion for dilemma of long
term benefit of GST over short term pain and will watch how the Indian
economy will adjust to the new normal, specially the vast informal
section of the economy & SMES.
On ground zero, in reality, as most of the FMCG/Cigarette dealers,
retailers are unregistered with GSTN, retail prices (MRP) may not be cut
by them as no input tax credit is available (benefit of GST); same is
true for Chemists (medicines shops), where disruptions may take serious
turn.
Today Nifty was supported by ITC & FMCG, Auto, Cement stocks (favourable
GST rates), Infratel (optimistic outlook), Infy, TCS, HDFC twins, SBI &
Tata Steel (hopes for a favourable UK pension plan resolution & better
production figures along with expected consolidation in Indian steel
sector).
Fertilizer stocks were also in limelight after favourable GST rate made
in the last hour on Friday, just before GST launch.
Globally, Japan (Nikkei-225) closed marginally higher (+0.11%) on weak
USDJPY after debacle of Abe in the local Tokyo election, which may force
BOJ to continue its ultra loose monetary policy for foreseeable future.
There were also some reports of corruption by some high profile LDP
(Abe) leader.
In the morning today, although overall Japanese economic data (Tankan
survey & PMI) was upbeat, core CPI published on Friday may be very
subdued and far away from BOJ’s goal. Thus, Yen is losing some strength
and Nikkei is trading higher as Japan is an export oriented economy.
China (SSE) is trading almost flat (-0.01%) after its bond trading
linkage via Hong Kong in order to facilitate more investment from the
global investors, which may result an initial inflow of around $250 bln
in the China bond market for ease of trading/investments in a $9 tln
market; FPIS are now holding around 1.5% of China bond.
PBOC today fixed the Yuan at strongest level since Nov’16 at around
6.7772 compared to 6.7744 on last Friday; one theory behind China’s
ongoing effort for the stronger CNY (Yuan) may be that it’s helping
Chinese corporates in the USD dominated loan & dividend payments.
PBOC today again drained out around CNY 70 bln from the China money
market in its ongoing effort of deleveraging citing excess liquidity in
the system due to Govt capex.
Hong Kong (HSI/HKG33) is also trading almost flat (+0.20%) after below
expected top line growth from casino operator Macau and pressure on tech
shares.
Australia (ASX-200) is closed in negative (-0.60%) amid mixed economic
data ahead of RAB tomorrow which is expected to be in neutral mode with
a hawkish stance following QT bandwagons from the global central bankers
including Fed.
In commodities space, Oil (WTI) is trading higher around 46.30 (+0.59%)
tracking 1^st net decline in US oil drilling rigs this year on slump of
Oil below $45 and some seasonal factors. An imminent expiry of Saudi
deadlines over Qatar issues may be also supporting oil at this moment;
but reports of Libyan & Nigerian oil output increase may also limit any
significant rally from here.
Apart from mixed Asian cues, positive European market on the back of a
falling EUR & upbeat EZ PMI may have also supported the Indian market
sentiment today.
European market starts the new quarter in upbeat mode as EURO bund
yields fall and prospect of a higher NIM regime as central banks are
increasingly talking about QT, which has also boosted the banks and
commodities (Glencore) for optimistic outlook.
GBPUSD also fall to some extent today after below expected Mfg PMI data
for June, which came as 54.3 against estimate of 56.5 (prior-56.3-R).
Overall data may be indicating a subdued picture of the UK economy in
the months ahead amid UK political jitters & Brexit uncertainty; BOE may
be forced to be in neutral gear. But FTSE has gained by almost 0.47% on
weak GBP, as it may help Britain’s export.
Gold has broken the technical support of 1230 and now trading around
1226 in a holiday thinned market amid increasing QT tunes from G-10
central bankers and an upbeat US & global stock markets. Also, EU
political stability and global disinflation may be negative for Gold.
Today’s overall upbeat US economic data till now may be also supporting
USD and negative for Gold. ISM Mfg PMI for June came as 57.8 against
estimate of 55.2 (prior: 54.9); ISM Mfg employment data also came good
at 57.2 (EST: 53.3; PRIOR: 53.5).
Overall US economic data may be quite good but market may be still
confused about soft US wage inflation and in that sense will focus more
on Friday’s NFP job report. US Prez Trump today indicated about a
blockbuster NFP data this week in one of his tweets targeting some media
houses for “fake news”.
In the previous occasion, Trump hinted at blockbuster US GDP for Q1 and
it was indeed came true last week. Although it may be pure coincident,
because a US Prez is not officially entitled for any early US economic
data access, but market may be starting to believe in Trump.
In any way, combination of a strong US Mfg PMI and hopes for a
blockbuster NFP number is boosting the USDJPY above 113.05 level and
Gold is plummeting right now.
*Technically, consecutive closing below 1230-1225 area, Gold may be
heading for 1214-1195 & 1180 area in the coming days.*
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bpXaaO971BA/WVp-Plc6ziI/AAAAAAAAMPE/9w57sSARg-Uc5h54SxuoBrAj9VRVECwrwCLcBGAs/s1600/GOLD-PATTERN-03-07-2017.png>
GOLD
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IO2uo1u4tas/WVp-WZQ7HhI/AAAAAAAAMPI/ALVqQsrfmoM2S934oeAZOy0Gs_pKAWo3wCLcBGAs/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-03-07-2017.png>
SGX-NF
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-DcJG9FOcIl0/WVp-lbvZkjI/AAAAAAAAMPQ/6rwO3RSxZ5MKYS31E9zFp8fm1iWO68hEACLcBGAs/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-03-07-2017.png>
BNF
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