Market Wrap: 24/07/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (July): 9961 (+51; +0.51%) (TTM PE: 25.22; Near 2 SD of 25; Avg
PE: 20; TTM EPS: 395; NS: 9961)
NSE-BNF (July): 24377 (+129; +0.53%) (TTM PE: 30.72; Near 3 SD of 30;
Avg PE: 20 TTM EPS: 795; BNS: 24421)
For 25/07/2017:
*Key support for NF: 9960/9905-9860*
*Key resistance for NF: 9985/10005-10050*
*Key support for BNF: 24500-24700*
*Key resistance for BNF: 24200-24000*
*Hints for positional trading:*
*Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 10005 area
for further rally towards 10050-10115 & 10195-10250 in the short term
(under bullish case scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 9985 area, NF may fall towards
9905/9860-9820 & 9775- 9715 area in the short term (under bear case
scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24500 area for further rally towards
24700-24875 & 25050-25275 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 24450 area, BNF may fall towards
24200-24000 & 23750-23500 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).*
Nifty Fut (July) today closed around 9961, up by almost 51 points
(+0.51%) after making a day high of 9974 and an opening minutes low of
9914; Nifty spot today made a high of around 9982, just few points shy
of the 10k Mt’ Everest landmark level; but Nifty Fut (Aug) today scaled
the historic 10000 peak and made a high of 10013, before closing at
around 10003!!
Indian market today opened around 9925, almost up by 14 points tracking
subdued global/Asian cues; but positive China/HKG market after upbeat
forecast of China GDP (6.8%) by CASS (a China think tank, closer to Govt
circle) and optimism about China/HKG Next tech shares after recent sell
off; but China deleveraging story and subsequent slowdown on overseas
investment may also affect the sentiment later on.
Incidentally, IMF also sees China GDP at 6.7% this year (2017) and 6.4%
next year (2018); up by 0.1 & 0.2% from last forecast. China today also
injected a net 220 bln Yuan in its money market and set the USDCNY
reference rate a bit lower than yesterday (6.7410 vs 6.7415) on broad
weakness of USD amid intensified US political drama. China (SSE) today
closed around 3250, almost up by 0.45%.
Back to home, Indian market today closed in deep green and at a striking
distance from the historic 10k mile stone on Q1 earning (HDFC Bank) &
RIL/R-Jio optimism (core business & telecom venture/R-Jio feature
phone-low cost 4-G enabled) and ITC (hike of cigarette prices by 6-8%
after GST cess increase fiasco by the Govt).
Today, IMF also upgraded slightly India’s GDP to 7.2% in 2017 and 7.3%
for 2018 and 7.7% for 2019 evidently on Modinomics, which may have also
boosted the Indian market sentiment.
Apart from RIL, HDFC Bank and ITC, today Nifty was also supported by IT
(Wipro/TCS/INFY) and telecom shares (Bharti Airtel) after Govt agreed to
provide some stimulus (reform) for the fragile sector in terms of
deferred spectrum payment from existing 8 years to 16 years with reduced
interest rate (8% vs 12%).
Although, Govt has rejected the plea of telecom companies to lower the
GST rate of 18% & scrapping of 5% SUC charges, Govt has also agreed to
consider certain other recommendations by the IMG and TRAI will take a
final decision.
Overall, although today there was stock specific movements, broader
market may be quite muted and gained by around 0.3% only.
Govt today also kept its steady pace of incremental reforms by allowing
more limits for automatic FDI approval in certain defence contracts,
which may have also aided the domestic market sentiment today, which saw
some sharp selling in the last hour of trade, when Nifty spot hit the
high of 9982, just shy of the 10k level as valuations might be very
expensive right now onhopes of a double digit (15%) EPS growth in Nifty,
which is so far, remains elusive in reality.
HDFC Bank today alone contributed almost 70% of the rally in Bank Nifty
on in line with expectations Q1 results; but on slight disappointment of
asset quality in agri portfolio owing to ongoing spree of farm loan
waivers by various states.
Nifty was today dragged by Pharma on renewed skepticism about US FDA &
US generic drug pricing, Tata Steel, Indusind & Kotak Bank.
Overnight, US market (DJ-30) closed inslight red (-0.15%) flowing
terrible report card from GE and ongoing Trumpcare/US political jitters;
USDJPY has gone down below the 111 level tracking ongoing US political
tensions and some reports of BOJ buying less JGB, made Yen & other Asian
currencies stronger, which may be affecting most of the export heavy
Asia-Pacific index today.
*Looking ahead, SPX-500/US-500, which is now trading around 2465, has to
sustain over 2475-2500 zone for more records high towards 2525-2550
area; otherwise sustaining below 2460, it may again fall to 2440-2400
area in the coming days; *valuations may be already quite stretched amid
hopes of Trumponomics & a double digit US earnings growth.
Today, IMF kept projection of US GDP at 2.1%for 2017-18; unchanged from
the previous June’17 forecast, but lower form April’17 projection on
account of poor visibility of US structural/fiscal reform
(Trumponomics). Overall, IMF has cautioned against too fast QT by G-10
major central banks (Fed) and China’s credit bubble and protectionism
and urged to continue fiscal/structural reform along with prudent
monetary stimulus.
All eyes may be on the FOMC statement this week (26^th July) to see any
definitive indication by Fed for the QE tapering from Sep’17; although
there is no probability of any rate action this time, FFR is expecting a
Dec’17 rate hike by around 50%. Apart, from economics, all eyes may be
also on the politics, as Trump & his son may be testified by US senate
this week; Trump is also scheduled to make a statement on US healthcare
issues later in the day.
Elsewhere, Australia (ASX-200) was closed around 5680, down by almost
0.70% on strength of AUDUSD despite some dovish comments made by the RBA
Dy Gov on Friday, undermining global chorus of QT.
Similarly Japan (Nikkei-225) was closed around 19975, down by almost
0.60% on strength of Yen (lower USDJPY).
But, Hong-Kong (HKG-33) closed in moderate green around 26825 (+0.40%)
tracking China & tech shares optimism and driving the Indian market
sentiment also.
But, depressed European market as a result of a strong EUR and some auto
makersrelated probe may have also dampened the Indian market sentiment
toward the closing session and the 10k level remains elusive for today.
In commodities space, Oil (WTI) was trading almost flat around 45.80
(+0.05%) tracking renewed apprehension of supply glut, record refinery
production (gasoline) by China & subsequent dumping all over the globe,
OPEC production squabbling by Nigeria & Libya and hopes of some
production cut resolution at the OPEC-NOPEC meet in Russia today.
*Looking at the chart, the area of 45.50-45.15 may be a vital support
for Crude Oil now and a break below that may invite the area of
44.30-43.65; for any recovery, it need to stay above 46.05-46.40 zone
for further dead cat bounce towards 47.05-47.45 area in the coming days.*
Gold was trading around 1253, almost flat after making a high of 1257
amid broad weakness of USD earlier; but it is now retracing a bit
tracking some bids in USDJPY; *technically, Gold has to sustain over
1260-1265 area for more rally towards 1295-1300 zone; otherwise expect
some corrections below 1249 area for 1230-1214/1205 zone in the coming
days ahead of Fed.*
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-h1JLuTj4GP4/WXY5Kn9URNI/AAAAAAAAMdY/kSin7MZ4EVsQRB2FcAlE_HE8jdZjaFlPwCLcBGAs/s1600/NF-PATTERN-24-07-2017.png>
NF
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-l2WCW-nJWdE/WXY5OOlpzfI/AAAAAAAAMdc/nNDcSYbBvG4ERbuDDzKAix8VOHuPfD4gQCLcBGAs/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-24-07-2017.png>
BNF
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xUd8MQBDYBg/WXY5SuFiwcI/AAAAAAAAMdg/ddbZCBtmbSQ7UI--IiCF2vMOdGuNWRucgCLcBGAs/s1600/SPX-500-PATTERN-24-07-2017.png>
SPX-500
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8CU7GcbJyAY/WXY5XM7H9gI/AAAAAAAAMdk/KMSHtZ3E5UssY06VzbS8ecLcG4ns9jzNgCLcBGAs/s1600/CRUDE%2BOIL-24-07-2017.png>
CRUDE OIL
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9yscmByYF0Q/WXY5Ya3S9AI/AAAAAAAAMdo/dBSTtmhlPHoY8oaFo-YBJDWgWAuzIPKCQCLcBGAs/s1600/GOLD-24-07-2017.png>
GOLD
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
--
Kindly email stock reports at
STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com
For sharing knowledge
-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.
http://www.niftyviews.com/
Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of
www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion
and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum
doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or
iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target;
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.