Market Mantra: 30/08/2017 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 9865 (+73)
For the Day:
*Key support for NF: 9845-9790*
*Key resistance for NF: 9905-9950*
*Key support for BNF: 24000-23850*
*Key resistance for BNF: 24375-24575*
*Hints for positional trading:*
*Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 9905 area for
further rally towards 9950-10030 & 10075-10155 area in the short term
(under bullish case scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 9885 area, NF may fall towards
9845-9790 & 9750-9700 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24375 area for further rally towards
24475-24575 & 24675- 24775 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 24325 area, BNF may fall towards
24200-24000 & 23850-23700 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Aug) may open around 9865, 73
points gap up, erasing almost all the yesterday’s loss as Trump
threatens no “fire & fury” to Kim and the Nuke Armageddon between US &
NK cools off. Also Kim’s rhetoric towards Trump is much more measured
and thus USDJPY shrugs off an imminent “war of nukes” between US & NK
and covered its short from the vital support zone of 108 triggering a
corresponding risk appetite in the US & global market in NY trading
session yesterday.
Market may be also optimistic about US tax reform as Trump is scheduled
to start his campaign to convince the US public about the benefits of
his tax plan intended for the middle class and ongoing obstruction by
some of his own RNC members coupled with the opposition DNC.
Thus, Trump may be trying to “kill two birds with one stone” by a
political campaign on US tax reform; if it’s passed by the US congress,
then he will take credit for it; otherwise he will pass all the blames
to his political oppositions, “obstructing US development”.
Market may be also slowly being convinced about Trump’s growing
political maturity; if he has the support of US public, then everything
may be easy for his “Trumponomics” narratives. But, still then, a
significant risk is there for Trump in his Russian links investigation.
Thus, market may be hopeful for passage of US tax reform bill by
Dec’2017 as promised by Cohn few days ago, overcoming the present
environment of US policy paralysis at WH. But, ongoing rehabilitation
focus at Harvey affected area may also undermine Trump’s political
effort (tax reform) at this point of time.
*Overnight US market*also closed higher, reversing all the pre-open
fall; DJ-30 closed 0.26% higher, while S&P-500 was up by 0.08% and
NASDAQ was in 0.30% green, helped by FANG (Tech) & defence stocks.
US stock future (SPX-500) is now trading around 2448, almost flat
(+0.05%) and looking ahead, it has to sustain above 2455-2465 zone for
further strength; otherwise it may again come down. Market may focus on
EUR strength, while it’s consolidating around 1.20 in EURUSD coupled
with US GDP & payroll data in the coming days apart from ongoing US-NK
geo-political tensions and Trump’s political woes.
It now seems that Fed should not be concerned about any unusual USD
strength, while it will gradually normalize its BS, because US political
risk & NK’s missile games may be some of the perfect weapons to keep USD
depressed despite a hawkish Fed, the only major G-10 central bank,
thinking about dual QT.
Back to home, Indian market may also focus on the elusive earnings
recovery & stretched valuations, fresh list by the RBI for NCLT/IBC
corporate big NPA and its actual resolution; ultimately both Govt &
Banks also want a meaningful resolution rather than liquidation.
Apart from corporate NPA, retail NPA for the banks may be now growing
abnormally, especially after DeMo & GST blues, where small business/SMES
are finding it more difficult to sustain by paying full compliance costs
of his business. Also, home loans and other personal secured & unsecured
loans are becoming stressed on the back of growing insecurity about jobs
& uncertainty in self-employment/professionals.
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PLbCJScLbhw/WaZJ89f0QwI/AAAAAAAAM5g/TYTwmCKp7zYdLTReBaoKEeYY3tLnupROwCLcBGAs/s1600/NF-30-08-2017.png>
NF
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Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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