Market Wrap
<https://www.iforex.in/news/nifty-recovered-partially-nk-nuke-shock-supported-positive-eudax-cues-41363>:
05/09/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Sep):9975 (+47; +0.48%) (TTM PE: 25.92; Nr. 2-SD of 25; Avg PE:
20; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 384; NS: 9952)
NSE-BNF (Sep):24389 (+99; +0.41%) (TTM PE: 27.43; Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg
PE: 20 TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 887; BNS: 24328)
For 06/09/2017:
*Key support for NF: 9940-9875*
*Key resistance for NF: 10000-10050*
*Key support for BNF: 24200-24000*
*Key resistance for BNF: 24525-24675*
*Hints for positional trading:*
*Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 10000 area
for further rally towards 10050-10090 & 10160-10205 area in the short
term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 9980 area, NF may fall towards
9940-9875 & 9820-9750 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24525 area for further rally towards
24575-24675 & 24775-24875 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 24475-24400 area, BNF may fall
towards 24200-24000 & 23850-23700 area in the near term (under bear case
scenario).*
*Indian market*(Nifty Fut/India-50) today closed around 9975, recovered
by almost 47 points (+0.48%) after making a mid session low of 9915 and
late session high of 9982, tracking positive EU cues and optimism about
improving diplomatic relationship with China at BRICS meet with India.
Indian market today opened edged up on mixed global/Asian cues and got
further strength on incremental policy reforms by the Govt, an improved
India Service PMI and optimism over improving diplomatic & trading
relationship with China after the recent spate of border stand-offs.
But concern of an imminent ICBM launch by NK may have again resurfaced
and Indian market goes into some selling spree before EU market opens
and made the day low. Again, after opening of the EU market, EZ service
PMI for Aug flashed as little subdued and thus EUR goes lower ahead of
ECB tomorrow, helping the EU market & DAX to some extent.
Subsequently, Indian market also got some boost and short covering &
some bargain hunting helped the market to recover almost half of
yesterday’s loss triggered by NK nuke tensions.
Nifty was today supported by RIL, HDFC, TCS, IOC, Tata Motors, Adani
Ports, Ultratech Cem, Kotak Mahindra Bank & HDFC Bank, totaling almost
32 points contribution in Nifty.
Nifty was dragged by Bharti Airtel, Bharti Infratel, Sun Pharma, Bosch,
LT & SBI, totaling almost 12 points in Nifty.
RIL was in limelight after favourable IMG recommendations of gradual
scraping IUC charges and GRM optimism after the recent refinery shutdown
in US for Harvey typhoon. But, Airtel & other telecoms were in pain as
scrapping of IUC charges is negative for them. HDFC & Bajaj Fin was also
upbeat after news of fund raising by QIP. Cements stocks gained on
reports of price hike as demands are picking up at the end of monsoon
session.
Overall, barring Pharma, almost all the other sectors like banks, oil &
gas, CG, reality, metals has seen brisk buying today after yesterday’s
sell off.
Meanwhile, Indian Govt has “struck off” over 2 lakh suspected shell cos
and cancelled their registrations & also blocked the bank accounts for
money laundering activities in its ongoing war against black money.
Although this is in expected line, overall this may be negative for the
market sentiment and if there are significant numbers of listed cos in
the above shell list, there may be another knee-jerk reaction.
As par reports, GSTN network is now facing frequent technical glitches,
while uploading tax returns and that is also causing some problem in tax
revenue & cash flow mismatch of the states.
Today, Indian PM was in China at BRICS meet and is also engaged with
face to face & bilateral discussions with his Chinese counterpart Prez
Xi. Market may be looking for stable & healthy relationships between the
two neighbors, which were under some types of “trust deficit” for the
last few months.
Meanwhile, India’s service PMI for Aug flashed as 47.5 against 45.9 in
July; composite PMI came as 49.0 vs 46.0; although it’s still below
boom/bust line of 50, today’s composite PMI may be a visible improvement
after GST disruptions in the last few months; mfg component is showing
some surprised rebound.
As par Markit, the underlying trend for services is still under
uncertainty and business/private investments are still subdued, leading
to falls in employment. Thus, overall situation of stable employment in
India may be quite worrisome.
*USDINR-I*was unfazed around 64.29; looking ahead it has to sustain over
64.50 area for further rally; 63.95-63.75 zone may be a good positional
support for it.
Looking ahead, apart from stretched valuations, Indian market may be
continued to be a victim of NK geo-political tensions despite
incremental policy reforms by the Govt. As par updated NSE data (?),
Q1FY18 TTM EPS for Nifty may be now around 384, down from around 395 in
Q4FY17 and in that scenario, Nifty TTM PE may be now around 25.78 at
Nifty 9900 level, still over 2-SD of 25 and well above historical mean
PE of 20.
Market may be giving benefit of doubt due to DeMo & GST disruptions and
may wait & watch the Q2FY18 numbers to see the actual trend; till then
Nifty may hover around the broad range of 9700/9650-10150/10200 area and
every fall due to any black swan event may be utilized for accumulation
of quality scrips having reasonable valuations.
As par some reports, Govt may watch the net GST collections till Dec’17
and if the present upwards trend or good collection is continued, then
GST rates may be reduced on some selected products & services.
*Globally*, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed tracking muted global/Asian
cues after a report that NK is moving its ICBM launch pad to the west
coast launch zone ahead of its “foundation day” on 9^th Sep, which seems
to be a preparation for another ICBM test with heavy payload.
Although, it may be also a part of demonstration of its ICBM missile
capability in the foundation day celebration, market is anxious about
another ICBM launch over the JP airspace towards the US military base in
Guam at Pacific Ocean and thus, there is again some risk aversion sentiment.
A rising NK tensions may be also good for US defence industry as both SK
& Japan are on defence spending spree and are buying billions of dollars
worth military hardware & missile defence system from US.
As par some reports, JP is also planning to evacuate almost 60000
Japanese citizens from SK as a precautionary measure, in case US attacks NK.
Although, Asian markets are under constant NK hangover, optimism about
China that Govt will maintain support for its economy ahead of the
crucial party congress may have also supported the regional market
sentiment (China & HK), which in turn also boosted the Indian market
sentiment today. An upbeat China Service & Composite PMI may have also
supported the overall regional market sentiment today.
As *US market* was closed yesterday for Labour Day holiday, market may
be also waiting for reaction from US traders in the NY session today for
the overall NK nuke issues. *US stock future (SPX-500)* is now edged
down around 2465 (-0.10%) ahead of EU opening. Apart from geo-politics,
market may also focus on ECB day after tomorrow to gauze Draghi’s
appetite for QE tapering.
Elsewhere, *Australia (ASX-200)* closed around 5702, almost unchanged
after *AUDUSD* gained despite “dovish hold” at 1.50% by RBA today (in
the expected line). RBA, on its part tried to talk-down the AUD, but
overall tone of the RBA statement may be quite optimistic on AU growth &
employment prospect and stable housing prices despite some concern about
growing household debts. Overall, positive AU economic data may have
also supported the AUD sentiment today ahead of GDP tomorrow and market
may be also quite optimistic about AU growth.
AU market was dragged by utilities, basic resource materials (lower
metals), IT & Industrials, while it was supported by gold miners &
energies to some extent (higher gold prices after renewed NK & Bitcoin
concern).
*Japan (Nikkei-225)*closed around 19386, down by almost 0.63% on higher
Yen as *USDJPY* further plummeted to almost 109 in the early Asian
session today following fresh concern of an imminent ICBM launch by NK.
Although, JP may be a primary target of NK missile rhetoric,
theoretically, being a net creditor nation, Yen is assumed to be safe
haven currency, even if NK attacks it!! A higher Yen is not good for JP
exports & the market.
Despite higher Yen, some automakers has helped the JP market today by
some extent amid upbeat sales figure in China.
*China (SSE)*was trading around 3385, up by almost 0.16% amid record
fund inflow from overseas investors on a strong Yuan policy by PBOC.
Market is also very much optimistic about China economic growth despite
ongoing deleveraging as policymakers may not try to destabilize the
market or economy ahead of China party congress and may also announce
some fresh stimulus after the current deleveraging effort.
Today, *China service PMI* for Aug flashed as 52.7 against estimate of
51.8; prior: 51.5; composite PMI came as 52.4 vs 51.9 in July. Overall,
a solid PMI data for China with service sector expanding fastest in the
last three months in line with Govt’s policy to change China from being
too much dependent on manufacturing activities to a more balanced approach.
The recent spate of upbeat PMI data in China may be also indicating that
despite concern of an economic slowdown after PBOC/regulatory
tightening, Chinese economy may be resilient.
Today PBOC fixed *USDCNY* at 6.5370 vs 6.5668 yesterday with net drain
of 70 bln Yuan without any OMO as the liquidity in the banking system is
relatively high. Although, Yuan is significantly devalued against USD in
the recent months, it’s still 5% devalued against EUR, which may be
helping China for its EU exports as US is increasingly become more trade
protectionist. A strong Yuan may be also good for Chinese banks.
*Hong-Kong (HKG-33)*is now trading around 27750, down by almost 0.10%
and well off the day high of 27870; it was being supported by China
based optimism, resource & financial stocks.
Meanwhile, *Crude Oil (WTI)* is now trading around 47.55, up by almost
0.32% on gradual resumption of Harvey hit US refineries (better demand);
much earlier than expected.
Technically, WTI now has to sustain over 47.85 area for further rally
towards 48.90-49.25 & 50.45 zone; otherwise it may again come down,
sustaining below 47.70 area for 47.05-46.45 & 45.50 zone.
*Gold*is now trading around 1334, up almost 0.60% on renewed NK concern
coupled with China’s regulatory prohibition action against Crypto
currencies (ICO); Gold has now a good appeal against ongoing
geo-political jitters.
Looking ahead, Gold has to sustain over 1345-1355 area for 1365-1375
zone; otherwise it may again fall; near term positional support may be
now around 1325.
Elsewhere *EU stocks* are mixed; Stroxx-50 is now down by 0.05%, while
DX-30 is up by 0.50%, FTSE-100 is down by 0.23% and CAC-40 has also lost
almost 0.12% on EUR volatility & ongoing NK jitters. Overall EZ service
PMI data today flashed as subdued and EUR drooped by some extent,
helping the EU stocks. But, a robust EZ business survey data also helped
the EUR to regain the lost ground and subsequently, EU market is off the
day high.
Electrical auto makers & insurers is helping the market coupled with
some leading health care stocks. Also gold miners & energies are helping
the market.
Although, UK market is being helped by retailers & miners, a higher
GBPUSD is also affecting the export heavy index today.
Asian Market Is Trading Mixed
<https://www.iforex.in/news/asian-market-trading-mixed-after-news-imminent-icbm-launch-preparation-nk-41311>After
News Of An Imminent ICBM Launch Preparation By NK:
USDJPY Drifting Towards 108
<http://USDJPY%20Drifting%20Towards%20108%20On%20NK%20Nuke/ICBM%20Tensions%20Coupled%20With%20Dovish%20Stance%20From%20Fed%27s%20Brainard%20&%20Concern%20Of%20US%20Shutdown>
On NK Nuke/ICBM Tensions Coupled With Dovish Stance From Fed's
Brainard & Concern Of US Shutdown:l
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9EsAGNlxJf8/Wa7gkt7uR-I/AAAAAAAAM-Y/Fq5Ga8HZP_Ei-AuQLLZll5C16AXYdzBPwCLcBGAs/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-19-05-2017.png>
SGX-NF
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vogd3AQF7YI/Wa7gttN6v8I/AAAAAAAAM-c/TPgSHLg3nFs4vWcx12Mnh44HgLvbe1R2ACLcBGAs/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-05-09-2017.png>
BNF
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wL4uUQmZJWA/Wa7g2W1Oj5I/AAAAAAAAM-g/Fyzgg4ovwCcVVho9381DZMZR3UtWVQqTgCLcBGAs/s1600/USDJPY-PATTERN-05-092017.png>
USDJPY
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
--
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