Market Mantra <https://www.iforex.in/news>: 08/09/2017 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 9953 (+17)
For the Day:
*Key support for NF: 9940-9900*
*Key resistance for NF: 10000-10050*
*Key support for BNF: 24200-24000*
*Key resistance for BNF: 24525-24675*
*Hints for positional trading:*
*Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 10000 area
for further rally towards 10050-10090 & 10160-10205 area in the short
term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 9980 area, NF may fall towards
9940-9900 & 9850-9800 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24525 area for further rally towards
24575-24675 & 24775-24875 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 24475 area, BNF may fall towards
24300/24200-24000 & 23850-23700 area in the near term (under bear case
scenario).*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Sep) may open around 9960, edged
up by around 17 points tracking muted global/Asian cues as USD is being
hammered down after Trump proposed to repel the US debt ceiling
regulations (senate approval/voting) itself; without any US debt limit
may be equivalent to unlimited Federal debt, which is negative for US
fiscal math and USD/US bond yields.
US bond yields again plummeted to almost 2% on this US debt limit
fiasco, poor economic data yesterday (surge in initial jobless claims
for Harvey), dovish Fed talks, renewed NK tensions after Trump indicated
war is not out of options despite intense effort of diplomacy and
ongoing Russian probe against Trump & co coupled with an uncertain Fed.
Although Trump administration is trying its best to rejuvenate the tax
reform proposal, there are too many political & economical headwinds
against USD and a lower USD may not be good for export heavy Asian
markets; similarly a higher EUR may not be good for EU economy & the
market, considering their export & tourism.
Yesterday, Draghi was in pain to explain that ECB has not discussed any
QE tapering programme; but he also emphasized that ECB should be able to
present its QE plan in its next meet on 26^th Oct. Draghi also not tried
to talk down the currency and did not say either that ECB will continue
its QE through 2018.
Thus, it’s now a question of when rather than if for the inevitable ECB
QE tapering; most probably ECB will taper at a monthly rate of around 10
bln EUR/pm for H1CY17 and after that it may gradually began to
hike/normalize their ultra low interest (NRIP/ZRIP).
Interestingly, today Fed’s Dudley also indicated that Fed may trim its
QE bond holding by around $1 tln over the next 10 years; i.e. it may be
also a QE/BS tapering at around $10 bln/pm, so overall effect on US bond
yields may be negligible.
Now, it’s almost certain from various Fed speaks that they will be on
hold in Dec’17 for various excuses like soft US economic data, subdued
US inflation, US political jitters, NK geo-p0olitical risks and also
Harvey & other series of hurricanes (Irma, Kat, Jose) !!
But the real reason may be Fed will not take any risk for dual QT (both
QE tapering & interest hike at the same time) and thus watch the actual
effect of QE/BS tapering on the US economy, bond yields and financial
market as this is a new experiment, never tried before; if there is no
such adverse effect, then Fed may consider any rate hike in March’18 and
by then, FOMC rejig may be over; most probably Yellen may get another
extension for policy continuity with some new FOMC members as selected
by Trump.
*Overnight, US market*closed almost unchanged on slump in media stocks
and some gains in health care despite a lower USD, which may be good for
US exporters & the economy (imported inflation). Banks & financials were
also in pressure as US bond yields plummeted, which is negative for
their interest rate hike capability (NIM).
*US stock future (SPX-500)*is now trading around 2462, down by almost
0.14% on tepid global cues after another slump in USDJPY, which has
broken the 108 level to almost 107.75, the lowest since Nov’16, Trump’s
election win day, may be for the tragic & massive Mexican earthquake of
M-8, triggering a Tsunami off Mexican coast.
Back to home, *Indian market* (Nifty Fut), after opening in positive
zone, may also follow its global counterparts (HKG & DAX); although HKG
now looks stable, DAX may be in pressure today as EURUSD is already
hovering around the five year average mark of around 1.21 even before EU
market opens.
Apart from adverse global cues, concern of stretched valuation & Govt’s
war on black money/shell cos may continue to haunt the Indian market
sentiment today.
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3UHjjm6pGUE/WbIp-HNw3HI/AAAAAAAANBo/C150ckMI8Y0uysG4zS2n-rlWa24WNvyHACLcBGAs/s1600/SGX-NF-08-09-2017.png>
SGX-NF
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
--
Kindly email stock reports at
STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com
For sharing knowledge
-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.
http://www.niftyviews.com/
Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of
www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion
and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum
doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or
iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target;
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.