Market Wrap <https://www.iforex.in/news>: 07/02/2018 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Feb):10451 (-62; -0.59%)
(NS: 10477; Q2FY18 EPS: 391; Q2FY18 PE: 26.80; Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg FWD
PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)
NSE-BNF (Jan):25630 (-219; -0.85%)
(BNS: 25670; Q2FY18 EPS: 867; Q2FY18 PE: 29.61; Abv 3-SD of 30; Avg FWD
PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)
*For 08/02/2018: Feb-Fut (Key Technical Levels)*
Updated: 07:30 (SGX-NF: 10518); +67 points (+0.64% on positive global cues)
Support for NF: 10480/10430-10380/10295
Resistance for NF: 10605/10640-10685/10735
Support for BNF: 25700/25500-25400/25200
Resistance for BNF: 26000/26200-26400/26600
*Trading Idea (Positional):*
Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10605-10640 area for
further rally towards 10685-10735 & 10775-10825-10865 zone in the short
term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10585 area, NF may fall towards
10530/10480-10430/10410 & 10380-10280 zone in the short term (under bear
case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 26000 area for
further rally towards 26200-26400 & 26600-26800 zone in the near term
(under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25950 area, BNF may fall towards
25700-25500 & 25400-25200 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Indian market
<https://www.iforex.in/analysis/nifty-slipped-hawkish-hold-stance-no-additional-dividend-rbi-48847>(Nifty
Fut-Feb/India-50) today (7^th Feb)closed around 10451, slipped by almost
62 points (-0.59%) after hawkish hold stance by RBI and a virtual denial
of additional dividend by the central bank to the government. Indian
marketunderperformed
<https://www.iforex.in/news/asia-closed-mixed-positive-us-cues-lower-usd-and-renewed-china-regulatory-concern-48831>after
opening gap upon positive global cues
<https://www.iforex.in/news/europe-set-roar-back-rebound-us-market-vix-panic-cools-down-48809>;
it made an opening high of around 10625 & post-RBI session low of 10443.
As par RBI Gov (Patel): “Fiscal stance to achieve 4% inflation target is
important; fiscal slippages and consolidation postponement have added to
bond yield rise; we felt not necessary at this stage to change repo rate
or stance without more data; monetary policy flexible in responding to
inflation risk; RBI has already share dividend with the government for
this year”.
In brief RBI is very much hawkish on inflation, but optimistic on Indian
growth as well as prospect of global economy, which in turn may help the
Indian export also. RBI is concerned over higher oil & commodity prices,
HRA impact (wage growth of public sector employees), effect of higher
MSP (minimum support price) on food inflation, increase of custom duties
of various products in the recent budget & its adverse effect on core
inflation and fiscal slippages.
RBI expects headline CPI around 5.1% in Q4FY18 and between 5.1-5.6% for
H1FY19, but it projects 4.5-4.6% CPI in H2FY19 on favourable base effect
as HRA impact will be subsidized by then. RBI is also concerned about
sticky nature of core inflation consistently hovering around 5%.
RBI projects GVA downwards for FY18 at 6.6% vs 6.7% earlier; H2FY18 GVA
at 7.1-7.2%; FY19 GVA at around 7.2%.
MPC votes 5 to 1 in favour of hold today; dissent of one MPC member in
favour of rate hike may have also spooked the market sentiment today;
although RBI has not given any signal for an imminent rate hike, there
is also no probability of a rate cut either in FY18 or even in FY19; the
era of successive rate cuts in India may be over now amid increasing
chorus of global QT.
Overall, Indian market was today supported by automakers, FMCG, media,
metals, pharma, reality, infra and energies/OMC, while dragged by banks
& financials (RBI stress on more rate cut transmissions and new
accounting norm from FY-19) and techs.
WTI/OIL View
<https://www.iforex.in/news/oil-tumbled-surge-us-productions-48835>:
BTCUSD View
<https://www.iforex.in/news/bitcoin-bounced-back-soared-prospect-renewed-innovation-optimism-after-us-senate-hearing-48827>:
USDJPY View
<https://www.iforex.in/news/usdjpy-edged-down-flight-safety-after-soft-ustsy-auction-higher-bond-yields-48837>:
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6OFcyrjsvP0/WnvNhB-kJ8I/AAAAAAAAOx0/zeYWAN9xQxoA-yBIGwlXWyg7OxE2WGaGQCLcBGAs/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-07-02-2018.png>
SGX-NF
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KKcmI5xvCIo/WnvNln41nUI/AAAAAAAAOx4/QF6R7lL7qvU9zM8v6-t8wpY83YWu0qFhQCLcBGAs/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-07-02-2018.png>
BNF
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--jP4BZ4WtDc/WnvNphZcC4I/AAAAAAAAOx8/bEAucqF5YRYOZP6UCH0vLscQhLHTpmS5QCLcBGAs/s1600/SPX-500-PATTERN-07-02-2018.png>
SPX-500
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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