Why Macedonians Balk at NATO's Presence
Cell
Phone From Belgrade: TIME's Joshua Kucera says despite some disarmament,
Macedonians remain skeptical over the latest peace effort
 GEORGI LICOVSKI/AFP British soldiers register weapons handed in by ethnic
Albanian rebels |
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From CNN: Rebels
Begin Weapons Surrender |
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Related: NATO
Throws a Hail Mary |
Monday,
Aug. 27, 2001
TIME.com: NATO has begun collecting some weapons from
ethnic-Albanian guerrillas in Macedonia, although it acknowledges that the 3,300
guns it is planning to collect does not constitute the guerrillas' entire
armory, but is instead intended as a gesture that they're serious about peace.
What is the outlook for NATO's "Operation Essential Harvest"?
Joshua Kucera: A little too much is being made of the discrepancy between the number of weapons NATO plans to collect, and the number the government insists the rebels have. The government is counting mines, mortar shells, grenades and other items that are not counted within the NATO figure. But more importantly, everybody acknowledges that it ultimately doesn't matter if they're disarmed, because it would be relatively easy for the guerrillas to rearm themselves if they chose to, just like they did the first time. There are easy routes to ferry weapons from Kosovo and Albania. So the current disarmament is, in fact, intended more as a gesture by the guerrillas, saying they are interested in giving up the war for a political solution. Then it's up to the Macedonian government to see through the political agreement, and the guerrillas will give up the possibility of going back to war, and so on — it's a slow confidence-building approach.
So if the rebels make this gesture, what's the next step?
That really depends on the Macedonian government — whether it is prepared to acknowledge the guerrillas' first effort. The NLA is giving up some guns, not everything, although NATO is making an effort to get everything it can. So the question is whether Macedonia decides this is enough to start the implementation of the political agreement reached with ethnic-Albanian political parties, or whether it decides to pursue a military solution to the insurgency.
The killing of a British soldier overnight allegedly by a gang of Macedonian youths is a reminder of deep resentment in the Macedonian Slav majority against the NATO presence…
Yes, despite the fact that NATO is ostensibly on the Macedonian side, going in to disarm the NLA, most Macedonians believe this is just a cover and that the Western troops are sympathetic to the guerrillas. They blame NATO for letting this insurgency start in the first place, because it originated in Kosovo. Besides the soldier killed early today, there are hundreds of ethnic Macedonians who were displaced from their homes by the NLA blocking the road from Skopje to Pristina (used by NATO to supply its Kosovo peacekeeping mission). Ethnic Macedonians have also blocked their own army from leaving areas where NATO has asked them to withdraw — the Macedonians don't believe NATO will protect them from the NLA, and that they're only safe when their army everywhere. Right now NATO is trying to separate the two armies, even though it's not really playing a peacekeeping role. Presumably the idea would be that the Macedonian military reenters areas currently held by the guerrillas after NATO leaves.
How seriously does anyone take the idea that NATO will only stay for 30 days?
Well, NATO is there under invitation from the Macedonian government, and it's hard to imagine what would cause them to extend invitation. The Albanians want NATO to stay as long as possible, and most Western observers believe an extended stay may help maintain calm. But the Macedonians don't want NATO there, because it diminishes their sovereignty, and they believe they can handle the problem themselves. If things go badly, my guess is they'll ask NATO to leave after 30 days, and set out to beat the guerrillas on the battlefield. And, of course, the guerrillas also say if this political agreement isn't implemented, they'll launch an all-out war to partition the country.
Macedonia's parliament meets on Friday to begin debating the adoption of the political agreement. What are the chances of it failing?
There's a good chance. The members of parliament have felt ignored by their leaders for much of this crisis, and were kept out of the loop during the negotiations for a political deal. Even if their party leaders pressure them to vote for the agreement, if its unpopular among Macedonian people, there may not be much chance of it passing. And it is certainly not popular. Most Macedonians resent the idea that the Albanians were able to force through these political changes by picking up guns, and many believe there is still a military solution if they scrap the deal.
The political deal is premised on the idea of Macedonians and ethnic-Albanians sharing in a common society. Do you see much sign of such cooperation in civil society at this stage?
Very little, possibly even less than in other Balkan states. There has traditionally been some contact between intellectuals and professionals from the two communities, but almost nothing among ordinary working-class people. Right now the goal is simply to make all the groups feel that they are not being cheated by the political deal, and even that isn't easy.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,172713,00.html
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