Argumenty i Fakty
No. 39
September 2001
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
RUSSIAN GENERALS COMMENT ON PROSPECTS OF U.S. ANTI-TERRORIST OPERATION
GENERAL RUSLAN AUSHEV: AMERICA WILL GET A HEADACHE
Natalya ANDRUSHCHENKO and Vitaly TSEPLYAYEV
President of Ingushetia Ruslan Aushev knows about the war
in Afghanistan not from hearsay. He spent 4 years and 7 months
there. He was a commander of a mechanised infantry battalion,
the chief of a regiment headquarters, was heavily wounded and
became Hero of the Soviet Union. Lieutenant-General agreed to
answer questions of the Argumenty i Fakty newspaper on the
prospects of the anti-terrorist operation prepared by the
United States.
Question: What in your opinion are specific features of
hostilities in Afghanistan?
Answer: First, the local terrain is very complicated. Afghanistan
is a mountainous country. Second, there is a lack
of infrastructure and most importantly roads. A large group of
vehicles could be moved only in certain directions there, which
limits opportunities for maneuver. Troops usually move in
columns, and therefore become convenient targets in mine
warfare.
At the same time, mountainous terrain provides the
defensive side with perfect conditions for creating ambushes
and fortified areas in the mountains, which are hard to take
over even if you have modern and precise missile weapons.
If the Americans deploy land forces in Afghanistan, they
will face such a war for the first time in their experience. Major
personnel losses are inevitable, even if they would
advance by blasting and burning everything ahead of them.
Houses in Afghanistan are made of clay and their wall structure
reminds of plasticine. This lowers the effect of fire attacks.
Also, troops that advance in the mountains are blinded, as they
do not see anyone, but they themselves are perfectly visible. I
doubt that the Taliban will send major troops to fight the
Americans. I think they are more likely to divide their forces
into small groups and attack the enemy from all sides.
Question: Can special services kill bin Laden without
causing a major bloodshed?
Answer: I assume, special services are capable of anything. But
then the question is why do they initiate a military
operation? If their only goal is to liquidate bin Laden, they
should undertake different actions. Judging by their
preparations, the U.S. and its allies want an operation that
would affect the whole region. No one has estimated the
consequences of such a scenario.
Question: How many troops are needed to keep Afghanistan
in control?
Answer: The Soviet Union retained 100,000 troops there.
Our troops were stationed in all parts of the country, but they
controlled the area only directly near them, which means in
actuality only twenty percent of the Afghan territory. Afghanistan
occupies a territory of over 650,000 square km,
which is more than the territory of France. Almost eighteen
million people live there. The Americans are not going to be
able to control Afghanistan even if they send the entire U.S.
army there.
Question: Given the Soviet troops' experience what advice
can we give the U.S.?
Answer: We had a different purpose in Afghanistan. We set
out to help the Afghan leadership of the time. We entered and
stopped. If we had not moved anywhere and got involved, the
result would have been completely different. But we allowed
ourselves to get dragged into warfare. This was our worst
mistake.
The Americans risk repeating our mistake. It is possible
that if they use all of their capabilities, cruise missiles,
etc.
they would suppress the Taliban forces for a while. However,
they will never defeat the whole nation. The U.S. is simply
going to get another headache.
GENERAL EDUARD VOROBYEV: SECRETS OF INVASION
Alexander KONDRASHOV
Colonel-General Eduard Vorobyev is Deputy Chairman of the
Duma Committee on Defence. He has been in charge of troops in
many hot spots. He participated in warfare in Afghanistan,
Tajikistan, and Transdniestria.
Question: Some sort of invasion is inevitable at this
point.
How much time is needed to prepare for the operation?
Answer: The Soviet Union prepared to enter Afghanistan for
about a year. Just like in this case, the preparations were
kept in strict secret.
Question: The Taliban is armed rather well. What could
help breaking its resistance? Could it be bought off? There
must be a reason why American businessmen promised to pay $1
billion for Osama bin Laden's head.
Answer: Money in the East plays an important role. We
lured Afghan tribal leaders to our side not by pretty words
alone. The U.S. can certainly buy over many of the Taliban's
field commanders. But I would doubt it could work with the main
leaders, including Mullah Omar, and not only because of their
fanaticism. They are very well aware that with time they are
going to share bin Laden's fate. I believe that it makes more
sense to assist the Taliban's opposition, the Northern Alliance.
Question: They say that the U.S. air force is ready to use
30,000 bombs in Afghanistan. Would air strikes help?
Answer: This is an obsolete tactics. During our war in
Afghanistan, we used carpet bombings, which created the amount
of chipping sufficient to build roads all over the world. Such
strikes are very ineffective.
Today, there are concussion bombs. Due to high pressure,
they leave nothing but shadows of people behind in caverns.
There also exist laser-guided systems that allow a charge or
bomb to hit a tank hatch from many kilometres away.
Question: The Americans stated that they would not limit
their actions in Afghanistan to remote strikes. What major
difficulties will they encounter in a ground operation?
Answer: First, the major problem will be warfare being
separated from the rear support. Let's say the Americans deploy
paratroopers in the mountains. They fight for no longer than 8
to 10 days. After that, the rear needs to be moved closer to
the front line, as it supplies not only ammunition and fuel,
but also water, food, and firewood. We faced this problem in
the first phase of the war in Afghanistan. Our paratroopers
would take 310 cartridges instead of 60 and a double grenade
set. Dry rations and firewood they would leave behind. However,
in autumn and winter, on the Hindukush mountains, is it easier
to die from cold than from a bullet. A hungry soldier is not a
good soldier either. In periods when it rains and snows, it is
rather difficult to use aviation and move through alpine
passes. Warfare in Afghanistan is hard regardless. Success
would depend on every little thing, such as, for instance,
whether the servicemen have appropriate supplies of warm
underclothing and wool caps.
NSP Lista isprobava demokratiju u praksi
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